Draft preview: Third-year starting pitchers

You have digested our suggestions on the 27-year-old hitters to target, but hitting is just half the battle in baseball. To find the sleeper and breakthrough pitchers, we suggest something even more important than mere age.

Experience.

2007 DRAFT GUIDE!

Order your copy today!

Yes, man's physiological peak is widely accepted to be age 27, but pitchers are a different breed in Fantasy. And we have a few of our pet peeves with them:

1. Pitchers are schizophrenic, offering varying return rates from Draft Day.
2. Getting big-league hitters out is more art, something not measurable, than skill.
3. Over-hyped young arms are great picks ... three years from now.

Fine, on No. 3 we have to bite our tongue on Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels and Matt Cain a year ago. That was a once-in-a-generation rookie class.

But we have to warn you: Those who paid dearly for Felix Hernandez last spring expected something Jessica Simpson-sexy. Instead they got something closer to Homer Simpson-ugly.

One of our favorite sleeper rules of thumb to keep in mind during drafts remains the breakthrough of the third-year starting pitcher. And we have a pretty impressive class of juniors.

Traditionally, a pitcher's prime begins after he has a certain number of starts under his belt. The arm needs to be conditioned for a 34-start grind and 200-plus innings and it's around a pitcher's third full year that the arm, mind and feel for the league and craft come together to culminate in a career year.

It is the way to find Fantasy breakthroughs before they happen. It's true even with the stud to end all studs, Johan Santana, who didn't truly break out as an ace until June 2004.

Examples from last season include:

1. Aaron Harang (career bests: 234 1/3 innings, 16 wins, 3.76 ERA and 216 Ks)
2. Bronson Arroyo (career bests: 240 1/3 innings, 14 wins, 3.29 ERA, 1.188 WHIP, 184 Ks)
3. Erik Bedard (career bests: 196 1/3 innings, 15 wins, 3.76 ERA and 171 Ks)
4. Aaron Cook (career bests: 212 2/3 innings, 9 wins, 4.23 ERA, 1.397 WHIP and 92 Ks)

All of those pitchers provided great return on their draft position and are proof breakouts can come from the depths of the position.

Granted, there were some 2006 busts in that category, too: Rich Harden, Daniel Cabrera, Jorge Sosa, John Patterson, Noah Lowry and Zack Greinke. But, with the exception of Sosa, we're still anxious to see the best from that list, too.

History has shown that it takes around 40-70 big-league starts for a talented, young arm to develop into a reliable Fantasy option. It's no coincidence the now legendary Fanalytic L.I.M.A. strategy (Low Investment Mound Aces, named by Ron Shandler) was derived from Jose Lima, who broke through at 21-10 with 187 strikeouts and a 3.58 ERA in 1999. He entered that year with 54 big-league starts under his belt.

(The L.I.M.A. strategy suggests you focus your Rotisserie team on hitting and pick starters on the cheap because of the inherent risks involved.)

Here are our top 10 of such pitchers who will outperform their draft value, starting with a player we already dogged above (proof positive we hold no grudges):

1. Felix Hernandez, 20, Mariners

Last season was a humbling experience for the 20-year-old and his Fantasy owners, who had to take him far too early after his smashing debut in 2005. Some of those owners might be left bitter on Draft Day ... hopefully for you, they are, because this season is precisely the wrong time to not pursue the next Pedro Martinez or Cy-Santana.

2. Ervin Santana, 24, Angels

Among active pitchers with 40-70 career starts, no one has posted more than Ervin's 28 victories, according to Elias Sports Bureau. His 16 wins and 204 innings portend great things in Year 3. And, by the way, try to get away with calling him out as the Angels' Johan Santana. Listen to people laugh, and then drop the fact he changed his first name while in the minor leagues so he isn't confused with the Twin.

3. Scott Kazmir, 23, Devil Rays

Kazmir would be higher on this list if not for some injury questions or a lack of wins potential. Those could be the blessings that cause the filthy strikeout machine to fall to you on Draft Day, though. The Devil Rays don't figure to come close to the .500 mark, which makes it difficult to expect 15 wins from him.

4. Chien-Ming Wang, 27, Yankees

Sure, this looks like cheating. He won 19 games last year and has a better chance of being overvalued than undervalued because of the run support he will receive. But he had a low strikeout rate and a bad ratio of hits-per-inning last season. Both stand to improve this year. Also, he has that 27-year-old thing going for him, which is nice.

5. Chris R. Young, 27, Padres

Yet another 27-year-old, third-year starting pitcher. We dig the synergy. He should be able to smoke his career highs across the Rotisserie board: 12 wins, 3.46 ERA, 164 Ks and 1.132 WHIP.

6. Dave Bush, 27, Brewers

His ERA (4.41) was unusually high for a pitcher with his WHIP (1.138), strikeout-to-walk rate (166-38) and less than a hit-per-inning. Combine that with the fact he's 27 and the Brewers will be a sleeper to contend, and you have an unheralded late-round steal.

7. Joe Blanton, 26, Athletics

Blanton is the only third-year starting pitcher who can match Santana's 28 wins == albeit with a less impressive WHIP and fewer strikeouts. Blanton is durable, if inconsistent, and should be able to assume a greater role after the departure of Barry Zito .

8. Jeff Francis, 26, Rockies

Francis turned the corner not only for himself, but the history of his organization, which has been unable to find a pitcher to tame Coors Field. The humidor helps, but Francis is 16-8 in his home starts the past two seasons. An emerging young lineup should get him consistent run support and make him a 15-plus game winner.

9. Zach Duke, 23, Pirates

If this list was strictly about talent, Duke would be much closer to the top. After another impressive September, the lefty is primed to put a full season together. The problem is how frustrating will it be for Fantasy owners when he's losing 3-2 ballgames for the lowly Pirates? Very.

10. Gustavo Chacin, 26, Blue Jays

His second season was far less impressive than his first, but it was attributed to a troublesome elbow. Assuming that's in check == no reason to think it's not == Chacin can be a 13- to 15-game winner for an expected contender. Only Wang, Young and Santana have a better career winning percentage among those on this list.

Others with 40-70 career starts who should be their best yet: Wandy Rodriguez, HOU; Brad Hennessey, SF; Zack Greinke, KC; Brad Halsey, OAK; Brandon Claussen, WAS.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Third-year SPs in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.