To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers have landed the first marquee free agent of the offseason, agreeing to a five-year $182 million deal with Blake Snell Tuesday.
It's a big commitment for what's been the model organization the past few years (not to mention the reigning World Series champions), which might go part of the way toward allaying fears about Snell's irregularities. By now, you're probably familiar with his Jekyll-and-Hyde routine, which was certainly on display this past season. Over his first six starts, he had a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP, but over his final 14, he had a 1.23 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
He followed the same general pattern the previous two seasons. In 2023, he put together a 5.04 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his first 10 starts vs. a 1.18 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his final 22. In 2022, he had 5.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his first 10 starts compared to a 2.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his final 14. There was much fear and loathing in the early stages of all three seasons, but when you combine it all, good starts and bad, it comes out to a 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12.0 K/9. That's who Snell has been since the start of 2022, and folks, that's an ace.
The Dodgers recognize this -- clearly, because they just paid him like an ace -- and we in Fantasy Baseball should recognize it, too, rather than wringing our hands over the way he comes about those numbers. Maybe his first year with the Dodgers will find him in another early hole -- or maybe not -- but if so, we can take a deep breath and trust that the numbers will be there in the long run.
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After all, from a skills perspective, there's no doubting Snell's dominance. He had three pitches this past season with a whiff rate over 40 percent. Most pitchers are lucky to have one. His 16.3 percent swinging-strike rate led all pitchers with at least 100 innings, and only one other (Garrett Crochet) was above 15 percent. Sure, Snell could stand to walk fewer batters, but he's so difficult to hit that it hardly even matters. That's why discussing the change in venue (downgrade) and supporting cast (upgrade) just feels gratuitous to me. The only one who can beat Snell is Snell.
Well ... and injuries. There's a reason why I used the "at least 100 innings" caveat when discussing his swinging-strike rate. He threw only 104 innings this past season, and only twice in his career has he eclipsed 130. What happened both of those times, though? He won a Cy Young, including in 2023. I'll also note that a groin strain, nothing arm-related, is what cost him time in 2024, and in fact, he hasn't gone on the IL for an arm injury since 2019. He's had some bad luck health-wise, but I don't view Snell as one of those pitchers who simply can't hold up to the rigors of pitching.
Still, the Dodgers' rotation picture is crowded enough that it may artificially limit his workload. Don't get me wrong: They signed Snell to pitch, and he, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani will have a place in the rotation when healthy. But will the Dodgers build in extra rest for them by mixing in Bobby Miller (stock down for him, by the way), Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as needed? Will they bring in Roki Sasaki, as many project, to crowd things further? My gut says Snell has a ceiling of 28-29 starts with the Dodgers when it might have been 31-32 with most other teams, which to me cancels out whatever he gains from the improved supporting cast.
Even so, I view him as a top-10 starting pitcher in Fantasy Baseball, and I know I'm in the minority for saying so. I just think too much has been made of Snell's irregularities, the overall numbers being what they are, and this deal with the Dodgers would suggest that at least one smart collection of baseball thinkers agrees.
