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As is true every opening day, several aces struggled Thursday.
But only one had an average fastball velocity 5 mph lower than during his healthiest stretch last year, a decline so enormous that it was sure to prompt responses like this one:
But hold your horses there, cowboy. Some extenuating circumstances make this outcome not as dreadful as it might first appear.
For starters, it's not clear the drop in velocity was unintentional. Chris Sale lost much of the second half last year to shoulder soreness. Details are lacking, but it sounds like some members of the coaching staff, perhaps even Sale himself, believe it was preventable. Throughout this spring, beat writers made reference to a strategy the Red Sox were implementing regarding Sale's buildup, and I think this article from the Boston Herald offers some idea what it entailed. A few highlights:
"The shoulder injury, one that's been explained as merely inflammation and purposely void of detail to protect Sale's privacy at his request, apparently stopped being a concern for the lefty around Thanksgiving."
OK, so it sounds like he's healthy.
"Sale said he's trying hard not to throw with 100 percent power every time he takes the mound, something that's been difficult for him in the past. When he returned to face the Orioles last August after two weeks on the disabled list, he averaged 98 mph, one of his hardest-throwing games of the season, but he was placed back on the DL shortly after."
OK, so they're making a case that maximum velocity may not be in his best interest.
"'(Pitching coach Dana LeVangie) came up to me today and was like, 'We're going to let you know, in terms of miles an hour, just to see so you don't break over a threshold,'" Sale said. "You don't want to go from 20 to 110 (percent). I think you have to hit every step. That's mainly what we're focusing on is the build-up.'"
OK ... so it sounds like Sale and the coaching staff were taking active steps to dial back his velocity, warning him when it got too high. Which is an interesting and countercultural approach in 2019, when getting more impact over fewer innings is the norm. But Sale is an unusual case in that it's not clear the velocity helps so much. For him, it might be wasted — and potentially destructive — effort.
I'm serious. If you look at his track record, there have been wild fluctuations in velocity throughout, and you'd never know it from the results. Last year was the hardest he has ever thrown, particularly if you look at just the months before he got hurt, and yes, it did lead to career-best ratios. But he was regarded as one of just handful of uber aces for six straight years before then. One in particular that stands out is 2016, when his average fastball velocity was only about 1 mph higher than it was Thursday, with several starts of a similar velocity sprinkled in.
What harm befell him? Well, he had a 3.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, striking out 233 batters in 226 2/3 innings. It wasn't his best season. The K/9 was lower than usual, the ERA and WHIP a little higher. But nobody was questioning his ace standing. He finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting that year.
Perhaps the Red Sox have decided that that version of Sale is good enough at the start of the season if it means having last year's version later on. Yes, "flipping the switch" and reintroducing the velocity seems to be part of the strategy as well. Here's what MLB.com beat writer Ian Browne (and LeVangie, the pitching coach) had to say after Thursday's debacle:
"Rest assured that the radar readings were very much by design. The idea is for Sale to save his best fastball for the games that matter the most — in September and October.
"'We'll get back to driving the Mustang, not the Ferrari, and try to increase deception and all that,' said LeVangie."
The Red Sox must know it's still in there. They had him dial it back this spring, after all. And they must not have too many concerns about the long-term outlook of the shoulder, given that they just signed Sale to a five-year, $145 million extension less than a week before opening day.
Now, maybe they were just reckless or maybe they missed something. I'm not suggesting the situation isn't the least bit worrisome. If I was looking to trade for Sale, I don't know that I'd give up any of the other pitchers we regard as aces, like deGrom or Trevor Bauer or Gerrit Cole, because I'm not sure there's enough to gain. But there's certainly a great deal to lose by trading Sale, an obvious ace and possibly even your first pick, for a non-ace. It sounds like the reduced velocity is all part of a planned buildup and, judging from his track record, may be perfectly fine as-is. He dominated in the little we saw of him this spring.
For what it's worth, Sale himself blamed poor command for the poor showing, which is sure to afflict every pitcher at some point this season, leading to similar results. It's the fact it was his first start, along with the unusual circumstances regarding his velocity, that has many of us assuming the worst.