Chances are, someone other than Mike Trout is going to finish as the No. 1 hitter in Fantasy baseball this season. As brilliant as he is, Trout has only finished as the No. 1 hitter in Roto leagues in two of his five full seasons in the majors, though no player has topped him twice in that span.
With that in mind, this preseason series is going to look at the seven players with the best chance to finish ahead of Trout in 2017. We'll look at the path that could take them to the No. 1 spot, as well as the potential pitfalls along the way.
Let's take a look at perhaps the most unlikely contender, Jose Altuve.
Path to Glory
Seasons like Altuve's 2016 aren't supposed to happen to players like him. Listed at just 5-foot-6, Altuve is supposed to be content to scamper around the bases rather than trot, but in 2016 he became the first player since Hack Wilson to hit at least 20 homers at that listed height. Considering he has just 40 in nearly 3,000 plate appearances prior to 2016, Altuve's 2016 has to be among the flukiest in baseball, right?
Not necessarily. Altuve took a step forward as a power hitter, but there wasn't much unsustainable about his season. He did sport a career-high 13.0 percent HR/FB rate, however he backed it up with a career-high 33.8 percent hard-hit average; he ultimately ranked just 89th and 78th in baseball in those two categories, respectively. Altuve didn't really have much luck on his side fueling his power breakout; he hit fewer balls on the ground, and hit the ones he hit in the air a bit harder. That's a sustainable path forward for a player entering his prime seasons.
Altuve did appear to benefit from his home park, clubbing 15 of his 24 homers at Minute Maid Park, although that might overstate things a bit. Yes, Houston can give right-handed hitters some cheap homers, but Altuve didn't really benefit much from that short porch. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, just six of Altuve's home runs would not have gone out in more than half the parks in baseball. He had more home runs travel 400-plus feet than not, which may come as a huge surprise given his stature.
So, if you're looking for one way Altuve could further climb the ranks of the Fantasy elite, another step forward in terms of power isn't unreasonable. Whether that means Altuve's skill set improves or, perhaps he just has a season -- like Mookie Betts' 2016 -- where he benefits from a bit of good luck on some wall scrapers, that's one path forward.
But it isn't the only one. Altuve stole a career-low 30 bases in 2016, and you might think that came about as a result of fewer chances to run thanks to his increased power output. However, he had 273 stolen base opportunities last season, compared to 277 in 2015, but ran 11 fewer times. Altuve has reached 30 steals in each of his past five seasons, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect another jump closer to the 40-steal mark.
A 30-30 season, with 100-plus runs and 100-plus RBI isn't out of the question for Altuve, who also enters every season as the favorite to win a batting title. That might seem like a lot to ask, but after the improvements he has already made, do you want to bet against Altuve?
What could derail him?
Just because Altuve improved last season doesn't mean he has to improve again this season. Progress is rarely that linear -- this job would be a lot easier if it was. There's just as a good a chance Altuve takes a step backward as forward, and he doesn't have much room to regress and still be among the truly elite in Fantasy.
Altuve does have a pretty high floor, thanks to his consistently high batting averages, along with his abilities on the base paths, however he had never driven in or scored more than 86 runs in a season, before finishing last season with 96 and 108. Altuve might be the best bet to win a batting title in the majors, but that hasn't necessarily translated to upper echelon production in the past; he ranked as the No. 3 hitter in 2016 and No. 2 in 2014, when he stole 56 bases and hit .341, but was just 15th in 2015.
Altuve may get better moving forward, but there's also no guarantee the power sticks or the stolen bases come back. If he's a 15-homer, 30-steal guy moving forward, it may not matter how high his average is.
Chances he finishes as the No. 1 player: 5 percent
Altuve is at the right side of the aging curve, and is the No. 2 overall hitter over the last three seasons, but there might be more realistic improvements coming for some of the other contenders.