Chances are, someone other than Mike Trout is going to finish as the No. 1 hitter in Fantasy baseball this season. As brilliant as Trout is, he has only finished as the No. 1 hitter in Roto leagues in two of his five full seasons in the majors, though no player has topped him twice in that span.
With that in mind, this preseason series is going to look at the seven players with the best chance to finish ahead of Trout in 2017. We'll look at the path that could take them to the No. 1 spot, as well as the potential pitfalls along the way.
Let's look at the rest of the players who have a chance, including some real long shots with high upside.
What would a No. 1 season look like for Anthony Rizzo?
Rizzo has settled into his late-20's as a solid, reliable, predictable middle-of-the-order bat. Over the last three seasons, he has posted the following triple-slash lines:
2014: .286/.386/.527
2015: .278/.387/.512
2016: .292/.385/.544
That is a remarkable amount of consistency, made all the more so by the fact that he has hit either 31 or 32 homers in each season. Where we have seen fluctuation is where you would expect it, primarily; run production. Rizzo had just 151 combined runs and RBI in 2014, when the Cubs were bad, and had 203 last season when the Cubs were good.
A best-case scenario season for Rizzo sees him inch forward as a power hitter, getting closer to the 35-40 homer neighborhood, with a subsequent rise in run production. A return to 2015's 17 stolen bases wouldn't hurt either.
What would a No. 1 season look like for Manny Machado?
Like Rizzo, Machado has been remarkably consistent over the last couple of years, with the added bonus that he doesn't even turn 25 until mid-season. Machado has the skill set to hit .300 with 40 homers, which gets you most of the way toward elite production. If he can put together 2016's production with 2015's 20-steal season, Machado is going to be right there with the handful of best players in Fantasy. With his ceiling at the shortstop position, Machado might actually be a little underrated coming into the season.
What would a No. 1 season look like for A.J. Pollock?
A lot like 2015. A lost 2016 might make you forget, but Pollock was the No. 4 hitter in Fantasy in 2015, thanks to a massive 20-homer, 39-steal campaign. Pollock rarely strikes out and has plus speed, making him a candidate to hit over .300 every season, and he plays in a terrific park and lineup that should afford him plenty of opportunities to produce. If he can just stay healthy, Pollock figures to be a huge value this season.
What would a No. 1 season look like for Giancarlo Stanton?
Stanton finally didn't have injuries to blame for disappointing in 2016, and that has dropped him from first-round consideration a year ago to more like third-round value coming into this season. Of course, it's worth remembering just why he was going in the first-half of many first rounds a year ago, as in 2015, his 150-game pace would have seen him put up 54 homers, 95 runs, and 130-plus RBI. Stanton strikes out too much to ever be a true .300 hitter, and that might keep him from No. 1 contention, however we did see him hit .288 in 2014, so he could get close. Short of Kris Bryant, nobody has the power potential Stanton brings, even if the downside risk is huge.
What would a No. 1 season look like for George Springer?
Springer was supposed to have Stanton-esque power coming up through the minors, especially after his 2013 season in which he hit 37 homers and stole 45 bases in just 135 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He hasn't been able to make good on that potential in the majors so far, but that 30-30 potential is still lurking. He may never unlock it, but a fully realized Springer, hitting at either the top or middle of this Astros lineup could make things very interesting with an early-third round ADP.
What would a No. 1 season look like for Trea Turner?
A lot like 2016, but over a full season. Turner was the No. 1 player in Fantasy points per game last season, and his 150-game pace numbers are absolutely ridiculous: 27 homers, 92 RBI, 109 runs scored, and 68 steals. Nobody expects Turner to sustain his 2016 per-game pace, but this is an elite prospect with what could be a pretty rare power-speed combination, and a better version of Pollock's 2015 season isn't out of the question. Would you take 20 homers and 60 steals in the middle of the second? I thought so.
What would a No. 1 season look like for Carlos Correa?
Correa gets the slight edge over fellow young shortstop Corey Seager here, mostly because his stolen base potential just gives him a higher ceiling. Seager might be the safer play, but Correa was going in the first round a year ago for a reason. Of course, his 2016 campaign is a good example of why you shouldn't expect improvement from Turner, as well. Correa wasn't bad, per se, in 2016, but he neither took a step forward nor even repeated his rookie season production in his first full campaign.
Of course, he's still just 22, and has legitimate 30-30 upside, with room to grow into a premier run producer in a great offense. Even coming off a disappointing first full campaign, Correa isn't going to slip beyond the second round, and for good reason. Correa could be one of the two or three best players in baseball by this time next season.
