Fantasy Baseball Today: Hunter Greene's elbow issue raises Opening Day concerns and reshapes rotation outlook

The question with Hunter Greene has never been talent. And, unfortunately, the questions are growing louder after he revealed Wednesday that he is dealing with elbow stiffness that has his status for the start of the season in question.

The good news is that Greene said he doesn't have any structural damage to the UCL in his elbow that showed up in initial tests. He's going for a second opinion and an additional MRI in the coming days, but as of now, it sounds like the worst-case scenario outcomes are off the table.

The bad news? Well, that's the injury. Greene apparently pitched through discomfort in the elbow late last season and had some kind of injection after the season (presumably either a PRP injection to promote healing or a cortisone shot to deal with pain and soreness), and he has been diagnosed with bone spurs in the elbow as a result. But the fact that he spent an offseason recovering from the issue and it cropped back up right when he was ramping up for the season obviously doesn't bode well.

With Opening Day three weeks away, there are multiple things to sort through here. First is how to handle Greene's value for Fantasy drafts, and the next is how the Reds will likely handle any time Greene misses. The good news is the Reds actually have plenty of viable depth. There's no replacing an arm like Greene's, but they should be able to keep the ship afloat for however long he's out. 

Let's take a look at what this could mean for Greene's 2026 value and the rest of the Reds' rotation:

Hunter Greene injury outlook 

This is the biggest question here, obviously, but it's also one we have no real way to answer. He could simply try to rest and rehab the elbow, but seeing as he spent an entire offseason trying that path and immediately dealt with discomfort again, doesn't make me super confident that this path will work out. Plenty – perhaps most! – are pitching through some kind of issue in their elbow at pretty much all times, including bone spurs. But once it becomes a persistent issue, getting the elbow cleaned up becomes more of a realistic priority, especially when you're talking about the beginning of the season. 

If Greene does have to have surgery, this would presumably be the best time to do it – well, second-best, after the immediate end of the season. Unfortunately, a surgery would likely represent a multi-month recovery period, ala what Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves has been dealing with. In a best-case scenario, a pitcher could probably return after two or three months, but there are certainly longer windows at play depending on the extent of the cleanup required. 

For some context, Carlos Rodon had surgery in mid-October to remove loose bodies and shave down a bone spur in his elbow, and he won't be ready for Opening Day. He might be ready before the end of April, but that would still represent a six-month timetable; a similar timetable for Greene would erase most of the season.

And that's probably not the absolute worst-case scenario. That would be something like what Walker Buehler dealt with a few years back. He had surgery to remove bone spurs in his right elbow in June, and when his recovery from that didn't go as planned, he ended up needing Tommy John surgery. The initial injury there also included a flexor tendon strain, so that isn't necessarily analogous to what we know about Greene's injury now, but the setback suffered during the rehab process highlights the risk any time we're talking about elbow surgery.

Of course, that's all operating under the assumption Greene will need surgery, and that hasn't been confirmed at all. Which makes it tougher to know how to rank him for drafts. My first glance at the rankings saw me dropping Greene down to around 45th among starting pitchers, right around the point where you start to see another drop in quality at the position. That still allows for the possibility of Greene coming back in the first half and dominating, but it isn't such a big price that it'll kill your season if he doesn't; it's not far from where I have someone like Zack Wheeler ranked.

That is ahead of Rodon and Gerrit Cole, both of whom would likely be back before Greene if he does have surgery, so if we learn he does have to go under the knife, he'll have to move even further back, I suspect. But in the information vacuum we're dealing with right now, it's the best I can do for now. If you can't stomach the risk, take him off your draft boards entirely. 

Reds rotation fallout

The good news is, this injury does seemingly guarantee Chase Burns' spot in the Reds rotation. I never really believed Burns was actually at risk of opening the season in the Reds rotation, but all indications out of Reds camp are that it's a legitimate battle. However, with an extra spot in the rotation seemingly open for the start of the season at least, Burns has enough wiggle room that it's really hard to see him not being in there.

That shouldn't change Burns' price much, but I wouldn't be surprised if he moved up a few spots from his 111.2 ADP over the past two weeks in NFBC drafts. Anything outside of the top 100 would seem like a pretty good value for one of the most popular breakout picks in Fantasy. 

But the more actionable thing here might be the likely elevation of another Reds pitching prospect. That would be Rhett Lowder, the team's first-round pick the year before they took Burns. Lowder dealt with a forearm strain last spring that kept him out of the rotation, and then strained his oblique in May, an injury that would wind up ending his season after just four rehab starts.

Loweder made it to the majors in 2024 and put up a 1.17 ERA in six starts, though the underlying numbers weren't nearly as good. He ended up with just 22 strikeouts to 14 walks and didn't really look MLB-ready despite the shiny ERA. And he hasn't exactly blown people away in the minors, putting up a 4.19 ERA in just 118 innings since being picked seventh overall in 2023.

However, Lowder is still pretty much considered a top-100 prospect universally, and his 126 strikeouts to 27 walks in the minors help explain why. He's been pitching this spring with positive reports about the quality of his stuff to go along with seven strikeouts and two walks in five one-run innings of work. 

Lowder probably doesn't have ace upside – certainly nothing like what Greene or Burns are capable of – but he's a groundball pitcher with good command and could be capable of something like what we've seen from Andrew Abbott in recent years. Lowder is a righty while Abbott is a lefty, but the overall results – decent strikeouts and good command elevated by good results on balls in play – could end up similar, and that's a useful Fantasy option.

Lowder should be added to your late-round radar in all drafts now that his path to a rotation spot looks more clear. He doesn't need to be a high-priority target, but he's young and talented enough to be worth a look along the likes of Noah Cameron, Ryne Nelson, Quinn Priester, and other similarly interesting (though low-ceiling) late fliers.