Fantasy Baseball Week 10 trade values chart for H2H and Roto: Five sell-high candidates to consider moving

It's the start of a new month in Fantasy Baseball, so that means it's time for arbitrary endpoints theater! Marcus Semien and Fernando Tatis were named the AL and NL players of the month by Major League Baseball Wednesday, while Rich Hill and Kevin Gausman were the pitchers of the month for their respective leagues. Adolis Garcia and Trevor Rogers were the top rookies of May, meanwhile. Congrats to all of them!

That's great if you had those guys on your team, but it doesn't actually mean all that much for their value moving forward. Months matter on the calendar, but the switch from one month to another doesn't actually mean anything in the real world -- it's not like May 1 hit and Gausman all of a sudden became a better pitcher, and he won't just magically become a worse pitcher now that it's June. 

Still, there can be some value in taking advantage of those arbitrary endpoints while the numbers are fresh in people's heads. So, before we get to my trade values charts for Week 10, here are five players to consider selling high on after their excellent May:

Walker Buehler

Buehler has pretty much been everything you could have hoped for so far, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP while actually averaging better than 6.0 innings per start for the first time in his career. And he appears to have picked up some tricks from new teammate Trevor Bauer, adding spin rate to his fastball despite a decline in average velocity. It all looks great for the would-be ace, right? Well, not necessarily. Buehler has a career-low strikeout rate right now, but it hasn't come with better quality of contact metrics; he has the worst barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and expected wOBA on contact of his career. It hasn't hurt him yet, but Buehler's 3.81 xERA and 3.58 FIP suggest he hasn't pitched nearly as well as his ERA suggests. I still think Buehler will be a very good pitcher moving forward, but I don't count him among the true aces in the league. 

Marcus Semien

All of a sudden, Semien's numbers look a lot like they did in his breakout 2019, though that's heavily weighted toward May when he hit .368/.429/.702. He had a .658 OPS at the end of April, by comparison. I do think Semien is a better hitter than his 2020 or his April numbers, but his strikeout rate is nearly double what it was in 2019, so I don't think he can keep this up, either. The Blue Jays are leaving their temporary home in Dunedin for the less-friendly confines of Buffalo, and I would expect Semien to cool off along with that trip up north. He's still a solid Fantasy option because he plays in an amazing lineup and provides speed and power, but he's not a superstar. I would swap him for Gleyber Torres if I got that chance. 

Adolis Garcia

Garcia has been one of the best stories in baseball, and I think he's got a pretty good chance of being a must-start Fantasy outfielder moving forward. But there's going to be a drop off at some point. He has the seventh-highest swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone and the 17th-lowest contact rate, a bad combination that has led to the eighth-highest swinging strike rate in the league. He's punished mistakes, but there are still adjustments opposing pitchers will make, and his aggressiveness is going to hold him back eventually. Again, I still expect Garcia to be a good Fantasy player moving forward, especially with his combination of power and speed. But I think he's more likely to hit .250 or worse than sustain his current batting average, and I don't think he'll remain among the leaguers in homers either. One move to consider making: Offering Garcia for someone like Byron Buxton or George Springer plus another player. 

Casey Mize

I liked Mize as a breakout candidate coming into the season, but I've been mostly discouraged by what I've seen so far despite the 3.28 ERA. He's got a deep and varied repertoire that helps keep opposing hitters off balance, but there's an alarming lack of strikeouts in the profile -- 20.1% to date, in the 26th percentile among starters. The problem is, while Mize does have five pitches, he doesn't necessarily have a great putaway pitch -- his splitter has the lowest whiff rate among pitchers who have thrown enough to qualify for BaseballSavant's leaderboards, while his slider is in the 32nd percentile in whiff rate and his curveball is just in the 40th percentile. Mize is riding a stretch of six straight quality starts but he still has a below-average strikeout rate in those six starts, and this feels like the perfect time to try to sell him. It wouldn't be a surprise if whoever does have Mize by the end of this month may be looking to drop him by then. 

Domingo German

I'm not sure how high the perceived value for German actually is at this point, but he did just finish May with a 2.40 ERA and sports a 3.27 mark for the season, so there may be someone willing to give you something of value for him. I would try to take it because German is another player I wouldn't be surprised was waiver wire fodder before long. I'm not saying that will definitely happen, but German seems like a pretty average pitcher to me -- he does an excellent job of limiting walks, but he's about average or a little worse when it comes to strikeouts and quality of contact allowed, and he's got a pretty mediocre defense behind him in a pretty bad park for pitchers to boot. I'm viewing German as a pretty fringe starter -- someone I'm willing to use against the right matchups, but not necessarily a must-start guy. If someone out there views him like that, now's your best chance to sell.

Here are my updated trade values for Week 10:

H2H Points Trade Values

Roto Trade Values

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