It happened.
Soon after the Rockies came to terms with Gerardo Parra on a three-year deal, their other three outfielders became a source of national interest. One of them figured to be on the move, but who and to where?
And what would it mean for his Fantasy value?
We now know Corey Dickerson is the unlucky winner. I say unlucky because any time a hitter leaves Coors Field, it's bad news. That park is unlike any other, its thin air not just affecting the flight of the ball but the movement of pitches. Like any Rockies hitter worth his salt, Dickerson was a monster there, batting .355 with a 1.085 OPS over three flirting-with-greatness-type seasons.
But he, um, hit only .246 with a .677 OPS on the road.
Conversely, you won't see too many pitchers gain value with the move to Coors Field, but Jake McGee does. The Rays stubbornly stuck with Brad Boxberger and his near-daily implosions in the second half last year even though McGee returned from a minor elbow procedure to deliver the kind of ratios that make him one of the dozen or so ace relievers in the game today. Not a one had a better ERA (2.07), walk rate (2.0 per nine innings) and strikeout rate (11.4 per nine innings) than McGee the last two years (minimum 100 innings).
Even if Coors Field pulls down those numbers some -- and it historically hasn't done so as dramatically for relievers -- the possibility of that pitcher getting regular save opportunities is infinitely more enticing to Fantasy owners than more of the same from a middle reliever. Of course, it's bad news for Jason Motte apologists, and it also means Adam Ottavino won't come riding in on a white horse this summer after recovering from Tommy John surgery. But those seem like small concessions to get another potential top-10 closer in the draft pool, making the McGee side of this deal a net gain for Fantasy owners.
So is the Dickerson side a net loss? Remember the impetus for the trade: It gets Parra in the starting lineup. Parra, of course, has never measured up to Dickerson in theoretical value, but he has been a useful Fantasy option in the past thanks to his broad skill set and is coming off a year when he hit a combined 50 doubles and home runs, which is more than Charlie Blackmon, another one of the Rockies' stud outfielders, can say. That sort of fringe skill set is the kind that so often blossoms at Coors Field, so it's not far-fetched to imagine Parra as sort of a Lorenzo Cain type at Coors Field.
As for Dickerson himself, again, it can only be bad news. But simply using his road numbers as a projection for him in Tampa Bay both misrepresents the nature of home-away splits and underestimates the effect Coors Field has on a player's psyche. Hitting there is so easy that it becomes abnormally difficult everywhere else, sort of like how astronauts need to re-acclimate to the earth's gravity after returning from space.
Sure enough, when high-end hitters have gotten that chance, they've adjusted fine. Matt Holliday's home-away splits his first year-and-a-half in the majors were strikingly similar to Dickerson's, but he thrived in St. Louis. Likewise, Dexter Fowler used to be a disaster on the road, but his Fantasy stock has only gone up since leaving the Rockies. Going further back, Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette and Larry Walker all maintained their usual production after leaving Coors Field, and you'll find more examples of that than the contrary (looking at you, Vinny Castilla), at least among All-Star level talent.
Troy Renck, former Rockies beat writer for the Denver Post, thinks Dickerson fits the profile.
@JeffPassan@stevecarney give him time. He has barely played to draw any conclusion. Covered a lot of Coors Field creations. He's not one
— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) January 28, 2016The distinction for Dickerson is that he wasn't as fully baked as any of those players, his value remaining more theoretical than actual because of injuries and roster bottleneck. But to abandon such a promising player just because he's leaving Coors Field feels like a mistake. I've lowered Dickerson in my rankings, sure, but only a few spots, and I still think he has big breakout potential if the Rays allow him to play against both righties and lefties. If my viewpoint turns out to be the minority one, then this trade will be a net gain for Fantasy owners because it'll make him that much more affordable on Draft Day.
