For Justin Verlander, it's only getting worse. As if the rising walk rate and falling strikeout rate weren't bad enough, now he's getting knocked around as well, giving up 11 hits in back-to-back starts.
As I mentioned in my latest post to the Fantasy Baseball Today blog, assessing this latest version of Verlander is tricky because of both his track record and the fact he overcame a similarly discouraging start to post a 0.26 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 13.6 strikeout per nine innings over his final five starts, including the playoffs, last year. It wasn't enough to salvage his final numbers, but it was enough to remind everyone that, when at his best, nobody else comes close.
But here he is performing at far from his best again. In his last 45 regular-season starts spanning two seasons, he has a 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a large enough sample to take seriously, especially since it coincides with a reduction in velocity.
And although those numbers are mixed-league caliber, they're nowhere close to what you expected from Verlander when you drafted him. They don't suggest he's an ace or even a must-start option. It's a frightening admission, but I don't think I can continue to value him like a top-25 starting pitcher. My rankings will soon reflect that.