Pitching Forecaster: Careful trusting a Pirate

What rotation has the best starting ERA in baseball? You get 29 guesses. Unless you're a player update hound on CBSSports.com, you'll likely never guess it.

Hint, they had a rotation full of third-year starting pitcher breakout candidates last year.

Well, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke and Ian Snell are finally pitching like we thought they were capable of a year ago. They are neither as bad as they showed a year ago, nor as dominant as they have been this year to date. That's the problem with small sample sizes. Stats don't necessarily lie, but they can in small sample sizes.

Year-4-if-they-don't-break-out-in-Year-3 breakout theory anyone?

The Pirates young arms are maturing before our Fantasy eyes, and Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens are even looking like they were stolen from the depths of the Yankees organization.

At 2.79 through Tuesday's action, the Pirates have the best starting rotation ERA in baseball. This from a staff that was junk a year ago and not really thought about this spring.

That's the good news. They are outstanding sleepers, especially in deeper mixed leagues right now.

The bad news is, it might only come down from here.

Case in point, you followed Duke's career closely but haven't touched him since his rookie year and the poor start to his sophomore season, since you play in a shallow or even standard mixed league. After he shuts out the Astros on April 13, you buy in. He has turned the corner. You're convinced.

Then he hits a brick wall right around that corner on April 19: six runs, 12 hits. Market correction.

The point here is, don't trade for these guys as Fantasy aces. Sure, there is potential here, but you have to remember, they are still Pirates pitchers. Pick 'em up as sleepers, sure. Trade for them? No way. Has buying high ever worked?

The Pirates are not going to be the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. They just don't have the elite talent and won't get consistent enough run support. Nate McLouth is a star, but the loss of Ryan Doumit (broken wrist, surgery) for more than two months takes away their cleanup hitter.

With or with Doumit, these Pirates arms would have to pitch like this the entire season to be better than a .500 staff. Don't bank on it.

Arizona Diamondbacks

1. Brandon Webb, might return from the 15-day DL late in Fantasy Week 4 (April 27-May 3), otherwise Yusmeiro Petit
2. Dan Haren
3. Jon Garland
4. Doug Davis
5. Max Scherzer

Week 4 two-starter(s): Haren. He is a must-start, while Webb could be if he comes out of his throwing program well and returns April 28 instead of later in the week.
Starters on the DL: Webb (shoulder). He was going to potentially return this weekend or April 28, the next time the No. 5 starter's spot is needed. But Webb might be held out to late in the week, so Petit could start Tuesday.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker, high Class A. He hasn't been touched yet, so he could position himself for late this year.

Atlanta Braves

1. Derek Lowe
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Javier Vazquez
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Jo-Jo Reyes

Week 4 two-starter(s): Jurrjens. The Braves chose to skip No. 5 starter Reyes at Cincy, so Kawakami gets two starts this week and Jurrjens next. Jurrjens pitches Wednesday at Washington and should earn must-start status.
Starters on the DL: Glavine (shoulder) and Hudson (elbow). Glavine will get one more week before he decides on rehab or retirement. Hudson is still on track for an August return, barring setbacks.
Starters to watch in the minors: Tommy Hanson, Charlie Morton and Kris Medlen. Hanson was unimpressive last time out and won't be ready for Reyes' next turn. We still could see him shortly after May 1. Morton and Medlen are doing well in Triple-A, but they are not even as appealing as Reyes still.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Mark Hendrickson
4. Adam Eaton
5. Bradley Bergesen, won his major league debut Tuesday night

Week 4 two-starter(s): Guthrie. He is an ace in name only. You have to consider him a questionable-to-risky option.
Starters on the DL: Rich J. Hill (elbow) and Alfredo Simon (elbow). Hill is hoping to begin a rehab assignment soon and could be ready by mid-May. Simon has a degenerative issue that might have ruined his season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz. Future aces, all. Tillman or David Hernandez are next in line, perhaps June 1.

Boston Red Sox

1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Tim Wakefield
4. Brad Penny
5. Justin Masterson

Week 4 two-starter(s): Wakefield and Penny. A Tuesday night rainout pushed Wakefield's two-start week to Fantasy Week 4 (April 27-May 3). They both could prove to be sleepers in any format if they pitch well Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Daisuke Matsuzaka (shoulder) and John Smoltz (shoulder). Dice-K has resumed throwing, but the Red Sox appear likely to bring him along slowly. Smoltz might begin an extended rehab assignment in early May, which could make him a candidate to return before June 1.
Starters to watch in the minors: Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden. With Masterson already in use and those two DL guys working their way back, we don't see Buchholz or Bowden being factors at this point. Long term, they are future aces, though.

Chicago Cubs

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ryan Dempster
3. Ted Lilly
4. Rich Harden
5. Sean Marshall

Week 4 two-starter(s): Lilly and Zambrano. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Reds and could earn must-start status.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeff Samardzija and Mitch Atkins. Their past outings in Triple-A were outstanding, but the Cubs don't project to need them at this point.

Chicago White Sox

1. Mark Buehrle
2. Gavin Floyd
3. John Danks
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Jose Contreras

Week 4 two-starter(s): Danks. He looks like a must-start in all leagues every week right now.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda and Jeff Marquez. Poreda is worth tracking, while Marquez is not.

Cincinnati Reds

1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Micah Owings

Week 4 two-starter(s): Cueto. He could be an advisable option if he pitches well at the Cubs on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson (7-day DL). Bailey's great spring is forgotten with an 11.25 ERA and .353 batting-average against through two starts.

Cleveland Indians

1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Carl Pavano
4. Anthony Reyes
5. Aaron Laffey

Week 4 two-starter(s): Lee. A solid start vs. the Royals on Wednesday will make Lee a must-start option in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow) and Scott Lewis (elbow). Westbrook is out until at least July after Tommy John surgery, while Lewis is out until at least late May.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Huff, Jeremy Sowers and Charles Lofgren. All three of these guys are off to great starts, so they are solid prospects to watch down on the farm.

Colorado Rockies

1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Franklin Morales
5. Jorge De La Rosa

Week 4 two-starter(s): Morales. He left his start early Tuesday in his return from the minors, so he might be headed for the 15-day DL. Jason Hammel is a candidate to replace him in the rotation.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder). He is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Greg Smith (7-day DL), Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds, Jhoulys Chacin and Keith Weiser. Weiser has outpitched Chacin in Double-A (0.79 ERA, .111 BAA, 14-1 K-to-BB in 11 1/3 innings) and Chacin hasn't pitched poorly (2.30, .193, 8-4 in 15 2/3 innings). The Rockies always need viable starters. Smith, Hirsh and Reynolds are not ready right now.

Detroit Tigers

1. Justin Verlander
2. Edwin Jackson
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Rick Porcello
5. Zach Miner

Week 4 two-starter(s): Verlander. He is off to another bad start, but he could prove to be an advisable two-starter with a solid effort Wednesday at struggling and punchless Anaheim.
Starters on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman (shoulder) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety disorder). Willis began a rehab assignment amid promising reports of late, while Bonderman is being brought back more slowly now. Willis could be back in the majors in May, while Bonderman might have to wait until June.
Starters to watch in the minors: Scot Drucker and Chris Lambert. They are not real promising, nor likely to help before Willis or Bonderman do.

Florida Marlins

1. Ricky Nolasco
2. Josh Johnson
3. Chris Volstad
4. Anibal Sanchez
5. Burke Badenhop

Week 4 two-starter(s): Nolasco and TBD. Nolasco is off to a slow start, but we expect him to pitch well enough Wednesday at Pittsburgh to be advisable two-starter. The TBD is not yet determined as the Marlins' No. 5 starter. That turn comes up for the first time Tuesday, April 28 and again Sunday, May 3. That will be a high-risk option, even if one of the elite prospects gets a call.
Starters on the DL: Andrew Miller (obliqe) and Rick VandenHurk (elbow). Miller might need just 15 days before he is ready to return, perhaps after a rehab stint to get his stuff in order. We don't see VandenHurk being a factor this season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Sean West, Ryan Tucker, Brett Sinkbeil and Aaron Thompson. Badenhop was off to a brutal start in Triple-A, but he was recalled to replace Miller, most likely in long relief. West and Thompson are scorching hot in Double-A, while Tucker and Sinkbeil stink thus far in Triple-A.

Houston Astros

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Mike Hampton
4. Felipe Paulino
5. Russ Ortiz

Week 4 two-starter(s): Oswalt. He will be a must-start option in all leagues, barring something unforseen Wednesday vs. the Dodgers.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Backe (oblique) and Brian Moehler (knee). Backe could start a rehab assignment soon, while Moehler isn't close. They are hardly worth stashing right now, though.
Starters to watch in the minors: Bud Norris. He will get ample time down on the farm, but he could impact deeper leagues later this year.

Kansas City Royals

1. Gil Meche
2. Zack Greinke
3. Kyle Davies
4. Brian Bannister
5. Sidney Ponson

Week 4 two-starter(s): Bannister and Meche. Bannister makes his return to the rotation Wednesday at Cleveland. He could prove to be a two-start sleeper for deeper leagues. Meche pitches Thursday at Cleveland and could prove to be an advisable two-start option.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Luke Hochevar, Danny Cortes and Carlos Rosa. Hochevar has been great in Triple-A (3-0, 1.89 with a .250 BAA in 19 innings), but Bannister (0-1, 3.46, .240) gets the first look.

Los Angeles Angels

1. Joe Saunders
2. Jered Weaver
3. Shane Loux
4. Darren Oliver
5. TBD, Anthony Ortega or Sean O'Sullivan will be needed April 25 vs SEA Silva

Week 4 two-starter(s): Saunders. He pitches vs. the Tigers on Wednesday and should be a must-start option.
Starters on the DL: John Lackey (elbow), Ervin Santana (elbow), Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) and Dustin Moseley (forearm). The Angels are without an entire rotation -- a real good one, too. The first three were supposed to be back close to May 1, but they haven't started rehab assignments yet and they will need at least a few starts before being ready. You might have to consider them out until mid-May now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jordan Walden, Sean O'Sullivan and Anthony Ortega. O'Sullivan or Ortega are candidates for Saturday, albeit risky ones. Walden is an elite pitching prospect who won't be rushed right now. He figures to remain in Double-A as the Angels will lean on their returning veterans first.

Los Angeles Dodgers

1. Chad Billingsley
2. Randy Wolf
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Eric Stults
5. James McDonald until Hiroki Kuroda (shoulder) makes a potential return April 30 vs. San Diego.

Week 4 two-starter(s): Wolf and Billingsley. Billingsley is a must-start in all leagues regardless of his matchup(s), while Wolf can prove to be a two-start sleeper if he pitches well at Houston on Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Kuroda (shoulder), Jason Schmidt (shoulder) and Claudio Vargas (elbow). Kuroda is expected to return before May 1, which means a rehab start this weekend and him taking McDonald's rotation spot next week.
Starters to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom. The Purdue prospect is off to a solid start (1-1, 3.60 and a .216 BAA) through two starts. He is an elite prospect who could impact all leagues before the end of the year.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Manny Parra
3. Jeff Suppan
4. Braden Looper
5. Dave Bush

Week 4 two-starter(s): Looper and Bush. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday at Philly and could be sleepers in deeper leagues if they pitch well.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeremy Jeffress. A little wild (10 walks) but he has been tough to hit in Double-A through three starts (2.45 ERA, .195 BAA).

Minnesota Twins

1. Scott Baker
2. Francisco Liriano
3. Glen Perkins
4. Kevin Slowey
5. Nick Blackburn

Week 4 two-starter(s): Baker. He could prove to be a sleeper if he pitches well Wednesday at Boston. Another rainout would push Perkins back for a two-start week. Perkins is off to a great start and is a nice flier in all formats.
Starters on the DL: Boof Bonser (shoulder). He is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Anthony Swarzak and Kevin Mulvey. Those are two pretty close pitching prospects who could step in and contribute if there is an injury.

New York Mets

1. Johan Santana
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Livan Hernandez

Week 4 two-starter(s): Maine. He has been so-so to date, but he could be a two-start sleeper if he pitches well Wednesday at St. Louis.
Starters on the DL: Tim Redding (shoulder). He began a rehab assignment Tuesday and can return in early May, but he is returning in the bullpen at this point.
Starters to watch in the minors: Freddy Garcia, Jonathon Niese and Bradley Holt. They will be needed at some point. None of them are all that promising yet. It didn't say much for them when Nelson Figueroa got the spot start Sunday and was immediately sent back to the minors.

New York Yankees

1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Chien-Ming Wang

Week 4 two-starter(s): Sabathia and Wang. Sabathia is a must-start and Wang is a high-risk option, but you know this already.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Hughes (2-0, 2.31, .244 BAA) will be a real tempting replacement for Chamberlain or Wang come May. It might be time to take a flier on him to get a jump on it. Kennedy (1-0, 1.50, .200) has 16 strikeouts to just two walks through 12 innings (two starts) in Triple-A. Either one of them would be better than Wang right now, perhaps Chamberlain, too.

Oakland Athletics

1. Dallas Braden
2. Trevor Cahill
3. Dana Eveland
4. Brett Anderson
5. Josh Outman

Week 4 two-starter(s): Anderson. The A's chose to skip Outman, which makes Anderson a two-start sleeper. He pitches Wednesday at Yankee Stadium.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow). He is out until at least late May at this point and might have to return in the bullpen initially.
Starters to watch in the minors: Gio Gonzalez, Vin Mazzaro and James J. Simmons. Michael Ynoa is too far away. Gonzalez (2.57 ERA) and Mazzaro (1.93 ERA) are hot in Triple-A out of the gate.

Philadelphia Phillies

1. Cole Hamels
2. Brett Myers
3. Jamie Moyer
4. Joe Blanton
5. Chan Ho Park

Week 4 two-starter(s): Blanton. He pitches vs. the Brewers on Wednesday and could be a sleeper for deeper leagues if he pitches well.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Drabek. They won't get a look before J.A. Happ does out of the bullpen. That could come in May for Happ.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1. Paul Maholm
2. Zach Duke
3. Ian Snell
4. Ross Ohlendorf
5. Jeff Karstens

Week 4 two-starter(s): Maholm. He has been off to a great start and could be an advisable two-start option if he pitches well Wednesday vs. the Marlins. He might only prove advisable in deeper formats, though.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). The surpring Pirates rotation doesn't look like it needs him right now.
Starters to watch in the minors: Tom Gorzelanny, Brad Lincoln, Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen. These guys will get a look later this year, but they are hardly worth tracking in the minors at this point.

San Diego Padres

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris R. Young
3. Shawn Hill
4. Kevin Correia
5. Josh Geer

Week 4 two-starter(s): Young and Geer. Young pitches at San Francisco on Wednesday and could prove to be an advisable two-start pitcher, while Geer will reslot next Tuesday after having been skipped this week. He was great in his first start, but we have to consider him a risky option at this point.
Starters on the DL: Walter Silva (elbow) and Cha Seung Baek (forearm). Baek could return in May, while Silva looks like he will be out for a while. They are hardly worth stashing.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt, Wade LeBlanc, William Inman and perhaps Mark Prior. The last one is the most intriguing, but also the most unlikely to see the majors at this point.

San Francisco Giants

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Randy Johnson
3. Matt Cain
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez

Week 4 two-starter(s): Cain. He looks like a must-start option after his start Tuesday vs. San Diego.
Starters on the DL: Noah Lowry (shoulder, elbow). He is out until at least midseason and might not pitch at all this season now. The Giants aren't counting on him, so you shouldn't either.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson and Kevin Pucetas. No one in baseball has a better pair of elite arms down on the farm than Bumgarner and Alderson, potential front-line guys. Watch their starts closely for potential second-half rewards in deeper leagues. Or any league, perhaps.

Seattle Mariners

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Chris Jakubauskas

Week 4 two-starter(s): Perhaps Jakubauskas or King Felix. Jakubauskas could be skipped after his first turn Monday, which would give Hernandez a second start. Hernandez is a must-start in all leagues regardless of the matchup(s).
Starters on the DL: Ryan Rowland-Smith (triceps) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow surgery). Rowland-Smith is out until at least mid-May, while Feierabend is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Gaby Hernandez. He is not all that intriguing.

St. Louis Cardinals

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Kyle Lohse
3. Todd Wellemeyer
4. Joel Pineiro
5. P.J. Walters or Mitchell Boggs

Week 4 two-starter(s): Pineiro and Lohse. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Mets. They could be sleepers if they pitch well. We think they will.
Starters on the DL: Chris Carpenter (ribcage) and Jaime Garcia (elbow). Carpenter is out at least until late May, perhaps until July. Garcia is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen. We figure the Cardinals will go with journeymen like Brad Thompson before they would give Todd a call. Mortsensen is no more intriguing than Walters or Boggs, who could platoon in the No. 5 starter's spot.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. Jeff Niemann

Week 4 two-starter(s): Niemann and Shields. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday at Seattle. We expect Shields to be active in all leagues, while Niemann could be a sleeper for deeper formats if he pitches well.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. We have to figure Niemann will determine his and Price's near future with his next three starts. Price could be up after May 3. Davis and Hellickson likely have to wait until spring 2010.

Texas Rangers

1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Kris Benson
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Matt Harrison

Week 4 two-starter(s): Harrison and Millwood. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday at Toronto and figure to be questionable to risky options for most leagues.
Starters on the DL: Eric Hurley (shoulder surgery). He is out for the season.
Starters to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz, Michael Main, Tommy Hunter, Thomas Diamond and Kasey Kiker. Derek Holland is already up in the majors in relief, so Harrison has to be looking squarely over his shoulder at any of these guys.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Roy Halladay
2. David Purcey
3. Ricky Romero
4. Scott Richmond
5. Brian Tallet

Week 4 two-starter(s): Purcey and Richmond. They pitch Wednesday and Thursday vs. the Rangers and figure to be questionable to risky options in any format.
Starters on the DL: Jesse Litsch (forearm), Dustin McGowan (shoulder), Shaun Marcum (elbow) and Casey Janssen (shoulder). Litsch makes it almost a complete rotation on the DL now. Consider him out until at least mid-May at this point. Marcum reportedly could be a factor come September, while McGowan merely hopes to be a factor in the second half. Janssen could be ready earlier in the first half, but he will be a high-risk AL-only option.
Starters to watch in the minors: Brad Mills, Brett Cecil and Robert Ray. The Blue Jays elected to go with Tallet out of the bullpen to replace Litsch for now, but Mills and Cecil could be impact Fantasy starters if they can get hot back in Triple-A. Watch them closely.

Washington Nationals

1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shairon Martis
5. Jordan Zimmermann

Week 4 two-starter(s): Lannon and Martis. Martis and Lannan pitch Tuesday and Wednesday vs. Atlanta. Any Nationals two-start pitcher has to be considered questionable, although Zimmermann has elite talent and Martis is making his own name for himself.
Starters on the DL: Matt Chico (elbow). He is out until at least late July after Tommy John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker and Colton Willems. It will take a real good rookie season by Zimmermann to be useful in more than deeper NL-only leagues and this trio is nowhere near Zimmermann's class of pitching prospect.

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