The incessant questions about when will so-and-so get called up tend to be too much in early to mid-April. It isn't just Fantasy guys and big league managers being stalked.
Last weekend, Rays manager Joe Maddon was hosting a kid for a day and allowed him to take the first question from the media. Of course, it had to be the big-picture one on everyone's mind.
"When is Evan Longoria going to get called up?" the boy was asked.
"Late April," he said, seemingly without hesitation.
If it could only be so clear. Maddon must have saw that question coming, because he wants no part of it, for sure.
Maddon doesn't know. Longoria either. Heck, the Rays brass doesn't know.
There is no way of knowing when the elite Fantasy Baseball prospects will arrive this time of year. It takes a whole lot of guesswork. And homework.
Sure, you can throw out the service time topic in the case of Longoria and the penny-pinching Rays. But can you make precise sense out of the arbitration timetable that teams face with elite talents?
On the official site of the MLBPA, they try to enlighten us on "When does a player become eligible for salary arbitration?"
The answer: "A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two, but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season."
Ugh! "Ranks in the top 17 percent in total service?" Mother ...
Ryan Howard was a "Super Two" this winter. A $10 million jackpot! He arrived May 3 in 2005 and had some time in September 2004. Had Jim Thome not gotten hurt, the Phillies could have saved a year on a $10 million slugger. That was the Phillies' price of needing him before the top 17 percent had already debuted.
So, it is understandable why the seemingly non-contending Rays need -- want -- him to spend some time in the minors. The question of how long apparently is arbitrary and dependent on how many other potential "Super Two" debutees are out there. It could be late May ... early June ... who knows? Ugh.
Complicate that with the fact that maybe Longoria might actually regress and prove unworthy of arriving -- like Delmon Young and B.J. Upton in 2005. Who knows?
You can be sure someone will know in the front office when it comes time to make that phone call to Durham.
For now, sit on your collectively wringing hands, incessant questions and dead weight on your Fantasy reserve lists. (Oh my, you are not starting Longoria are you? You could be mailing in your season if you are.) Teams need a month or two to evaluate their talent in the majors and down on the farm -- especially with the elite position players, who tend to be used less in emergencies than pitchers.
You cannot hold your breath for months. Don't bother trying to.
Every year we see the rush of top prospects around June 1, for various reasons. Ryan Braun is a very similar talent to Longoria as an elite third base prospect. He arrived in late May, but he did so to a first-place Brewers club at the time. Teammates Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks got the call around June 1 when they came up. (Followed Fielder's 2008 salary and long-term contract talks much? The Brewers don't want a Howard-like arbitration case. Ticking off your franchise player is not good for business.)
Until June, take stock in the arrivals such as D-Backs-turned-A's pitching prospect Greg Smith, who came up Wednesday with a solid outing and in time for a Fantasy Week 3 (April 14-20) two-start week. The budget-conscious and currently injury-hit A's had to go to the well. Smith is a decent talent for deeper leagues.
Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie got called up for injury this week, too, but not to start. Consider him only in long-term keeper and deeper AL-only leagues.
Now, if you are one of the wistful hoping to see Longoria and his .200 Triple-A batting average arrive in late April, here are the most-owned minor leaguers currently on CBSSports.com. All of these prospects (and some has-beens) are owned in at least 1 percent of our leagues. We list the 90 of them here, along with the team, position, player and/or reason holding them back. And then we try to do as well as Maddon's tag-along in guesstimating an arrival date.
| |||||
Farmhand | TM | POS | own % | Held back by ... | A best-case guesstimate |
Francisco Liriano | MIN | SP | 85 | Health | Might arrive to start Tuesday |
Evan Longoria | TB | 3B | 62 | Service time | No sooner than early May |
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | TEX | C | 41 | Gerald Laird | When Laird is dealt or injured |
Josh Fields | CHW | 3B | 38 | Joe Crede | When Crede is dealt or injured |
Cameron Maybin | FLA | OF | 31 | Service time | No sooner than early May |
Bartolo Colon | BOS | SP | 31 | Health | Mid-summer |
Jay Bruce | CIN | OF | 28 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Clayton Kershaw | LA | SP | 27 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Homer Bailey | CIN | SP | 24 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Chase Headley | SD | 3B | 18 | Position change, glove | No sooner than early May |
Colby Rasmus | STL | OF | 15 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Brandon Wood | ANA | 3B | 8 | Glove, strikeouts | No sooner than early May |
David Price | TB | SP | 8 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Ian Stewart | COL | 3B | 6 | Garrett Atkins | When Atkins is dealt or injured |
Steve Pearce | PIT | OF | 6 | Xavier Nady | When Nady is dealt or injured |
Adam Miller | CLE | SP | 6 | Health, Paul Byrd | Late summer |
Wladimir Balentien | SEA | OF | 5 | Strikeout rate | June 1 |
Carlos Gonzalez | OAK | OF | 5 | Youth, experience | No sooner than early May |
Nick Adenhart | ANA | SP | 5 | Dustin Moseley | No sooner than early May |
Gio Gonzalez | OAK | SP | 5 | Youth, experience | No sooner than early May |
Jeff Clement | SEA | C | 4 | Kenji Johjima | When Johjima is dealt or injured |
Brandon Morrow | SEA | RP | 4 | Health, command | Perhaps late April |
John Patterson | TEX | SP | 4 | Health | June 1 |
Josh Barfield | CLE | 2B | 3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | If Cabrera needs a DL stint |
Matt Antonelli | SD | 2B | 3 | Tadahito Iguchi | When Iguchi is dealt or injured |
Matt Wieters | BAL | C | 3 | Youth, experience | No sooner than September |
Adam Lind | TOR | OF | 3 | Matt Stairs | No sooner than early May |
Andrew McCutchen | PIT | OF | 3 | Youth, Nate McLouth | Late summer |
Rick VandenHurk | FLA | SP | 3 | Command | He had his shot; mid-summer |
Rick Porcello | DET | SP | 3 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Luke Hochevar | KC | SP | 3 | Youth, experience | June 1 |
Ryan Shealy | KC | 1B | 2 | Glove | He had his shot; mid-summer |
Alexi Casilla | MIN | 2B | 2 | Glove | Mid-summer |
Matt Murton | CHC | OF | 2 | Alfonso Soriano | Mid-summer |
Josh Anderson | ATL | OF | 2 | Mark Kotsay | If Kotsay needs a DL stint |
Brandon Jones | ATL | OF | 2 | Matt Diaz | June 1 |
Matt LaPorta | MIL | OF | 2 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Travis Snider | TOR | OF | 2 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Fernando Martinez | NYM | OF | 2 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Jordan Schafer | ATL | OF | 2 | 50-game suspension | No sooner than September |
Philip Humber | MIN | SP | 2 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Claudio Vargas | NYM | SP | 2 | Nelson Figueroa | No sooner than early May |
Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP | 2 | Cliff Lee | Mid-summer |
Max Scherzer | ARI | SP | 2 | Edgar Gonzalez | June 1 |
Chris Volstad | FLA | SP | 2 | Youth, experience | June 1 |
Jeff Niemann | TB | SP | 2 | Expected to be called up | Might start Sunday |
Jake McGee | TB | SP | 2 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Carlos Carrasco | PHI | SP | 2 | Youth, experience | June 1 |
Wade Davis | TB | SP | 2 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Reid Brignac | TB | SS | 2 | Glove | Late summer |
Kendry Morales | ANA | 1B | 1 | Glove | No sooner than early May |
Joe Koshansky | COL | 1B | 1 | Todd Helton | When Helton is dealt or injured |
Lars Anderson | BOS | 1B | 1 | Youth, experience | Won't arrive this season |
Chris Davis | TEX | 3B | 1 | Youth, experience | June 1 |
Neil Walker | PIT | 3B | 1 | Jose Bautista | Mid-summer |
Michael Moustakas | KC | 3B | 1 | Youth, experience | Won't arrive this season |
Josh Vitters | CHC | 3B | 1 | Youth, experience | Won't arrive this season |
Dallas McPherson | FLA | 3B | 1 | Health, glove, strikeouts | No sooner than early May |
Taylor Teagarden | TEX | C | 1 | Glove, youth, Gerald Laird | Late summer |
Eric Patterson | CHC | OF | 1 | Maturity | No sooner than early May |
Austin Jackson | NYY | OF | 1 | Youth, experience | No sooner than September |
Ben Francisco | CLE | OF | 1 | David Dellucci, Jason Michaels | No sooner than early May |
Nate Schierholtz | SF | OF | 1 | Randy Winn | No sooner than early May |
Brandon Moss | BOS | OF | 1 | J.D. Drew | If Drew needs a DL stint |
Christopher Marrero | WAS | OF | 1 | Youth, experience | No sooner than September |
Jose Tabata | NYY | OF | 1 | Youth, experience | No sooner than September |
Jarrod Parker | ARI | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | No sooner than September |
Kevin Mench | TEX | OF | 1 | Glove, strikeouts | He had his shot; mid-summer |
Joey Devine | OAK | RP | 1 | Command | Was called up Thursday |
Jon Meloan | LA | RP | 1 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Glen Perkins | MIN | RP | 1 | Command | Mid-summer |
Chris Perez | STL | RP | 1 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Kris Benson | PHI | SP | 1 | Health | No sooner than mid-May |
Jo-Jo Reyes | ATL | SP | 1 | Command | Might enter Atlanta rotation next week |
Hayden Penn | BAL | SP | 1 | Health, command | No sooner than early May |
Kyle Davies | KC | SP | 1 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Eric Hurley | TEX | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | June 1 |
Ross Detwiler | WAS | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Joe Savery | PHI | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Garrett Olson | BAL | SP | 1 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Justin Masterson | BOS | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Kei Igawa | NYY | SP | 1 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Scott Elbert | LA | SP | 1 | Youth, experience | Mid-summer |
Radhames Liz | BAL | SP | 1 | Command | No sooner than early May |
Jeremy Sowers | CLE | SP | 1 | Cliff Lee | He had his shot; mid-summer |
Carlos Triunfel | SEA | SS | 1 | Youth, experience | Won't arrive this season |
Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 1 | Youth, experience | Late summer |
Brent Lillibridge | ATL | SS | 1 | Yunel Escobar | If Escobar needs a DL stint |
Rookie watch
An abbreviated rookie watch this week:
- SP Johnny Cueto, CIN -- Cueto. Enough said.
- SP Hiroki Kuroda, LAD -- Still flying under the radar.
- C Geovany Soto, CHC -- Such a pleasure to see a new catcher who can hit.
- SP Jair Jurrjens, ATL -- There will be a point you will regret not having him on your roster.
- OF Kosuke Fukudome, CHC -- Should be a nice NL ROY campaign among Cubbies.
- Honorable mentions: OF Ryan Sweeney, OAK; OF David Murphy, TEX; OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS; RP Joba Chamberlain, NYY; SP Nick Blackburn, MIN; RP Dennis Sarfate, BAL.
Newbie needs
Sean O'Brien: I have Scott Rolen. Should I dump him and pick up one of the two hot third basemen right now or stick it out? I'm talking about Mark Reynolds. Also, I have Chase Headley. What should I do?
Emack: Oh my, hopefully you didn't wait for my answer on Reynolds. Drop Rolen like a rock. Few sophomores or rookies have as much upside as Reynolds at this point -- perhaps none. How is Rolen and Headley owned and Reynolds still out there into Week 2 of the season? Bad.
Danny, Miami: I recently got a trade offer of getting Mariano Rivera and giving up Rafael Soriano and Clayton Kershaw, which I have preserved under my minors. Do you think it's worth taking the chance on holding to Kershaw hoping to get a rookie year like Francisco Liriano did two years ago or to just be safe and get the sure saves from Mariano?
Emack: Ignore the fact Soriano is now on the DL. It is unfortunate you didn't make the trade now, but we might have suggested you should have stuck it out because of Soriano's potential to be as good as Rivera in Fantasy this year. Oops. Regardless, Kershaw won't have an impact like Liriano did two years ago. Liriano was a much more polished arm who had built up his innings total with years of pro experience. Kershaw is an untested 20-year-old. Intriguing, but only as a novelty until he proves capable of earning a call-up. He is, after all, already 0-2 in Double-A.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball prospect questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects Report in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.