Curt Schilling has an issue with his 40-year-old shoulder, goes on the DL and the Red Sox haven't yet announced who will replace him in the rotation next Monday or Tuesday. What's the big secret anyway?
Well, if you're the Red Sox, it is because you don't even know. They have three very good choices.
Behind door No. 1: We have the 23-year-old cancer survivor Jon Lester. He would be making his long-anticipated return from non-Hodgkins lympoma and chemotherapy by starting in his home town in Seattle. He would give the Red Sox a left-handed starter to complement Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and a surprisingly effective Julian Tavarez.
Behind door No. 2: We have the red-hot 22-year-old Clay Buchholz, who is pitching better than any prospect currently in the minor leagues. The Double-A right-hander (5-2, 1.82 ERA) has struck 100 while walking just 18 in 74 innings. Batters are hitting just .188 off him. He has gotten better as the year has gone on, streaking through May (2-0, 1.50 ERA in six starts) and stretching out in June (3-1, 1.99 ERA in four starts).
Behind door No. 3: There is the often-overshadowed 25-year-old Kason Gabbard, who has already won a start for the Red Sox this season, going five innings, striking out seven and allowing just two runs. Granted, he is not the prospect Lester or Buchholz is, but he does give them a lefty starter and he might be ripe to showcase for a midseason trade. Lester and Buchholz are prospects too good to deal. Gabbard could get the call and pitch well enough to net the Red Sox a trade-deadline piece for the stretch run.
We might not even care which one gets the nod at this point -- as long as we find out ASAP. We really want to know, because whoever gets starts for the best team in baseball will be a candidate to help in any Fantasy league immediately.
Lester is our guess to have the biggest Fantasy impact this season, but the Red Sox have treated him with kid gloves -- justified or not. He proved last season -- going 7-2 before being diagnosed with lymphoma, a form of cancer -- he can pitch and succeed in the big leagues.
Buchholz might have the most value long term, but he is not yet on the 40-man roster. Calling him up would mean the Red Sox would have to designate another player for assignment -- or merely move Matt Clement (shoulder surgery, out until at least early September) from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL.
In the middle is Gabbard, who lasted the longest among the three in spring training and has been considered the Red Sox's defacto "No. 6 starter" the first few months of the season. Gabbard was just 1-3 with the Red Sox last season, but his 3.57 ERA trumped Lester's 4.77 and his WHIP was slightly better, too (1.587 to 1.652).
No, we're not saying Gabbard (owned in less than 1 percent of CBS SportsLine Fantasy leagues) should be considered more intriguing than Lester (owned in 40 percent). But Gabbard should at least be more on the radar right now. It makes sense to keep the elite prospects down and showcasing Gabbard to a team like the Rangers, who are shopping Eric Gagne.
At the time of this writing, Lester is the No. 5 most-scouted player in CBS SportsLine's Fantasy leagues. Clearly, he's the one who has to be grabbed now. Gabbard is being overlooked at No. 614 most-viewed. Buchholz, owned in 4 percent of our leagues but perhaps the least likely to get the call, was No. 329.
Coincidentally, all three of these pitching prospects will be on schedule to start as the Red Sox's No. 5 man. Lester and Buchholz both started Wednesday night and would be ready on regular rest as early as Monday. Lester, shaky in June, was unspectacular pitching amid the Schilling news (five innings, five hits, three runs, four walks and just three Ks). Buchholz, pitching with far less fanfare and anticipation, was nearly flawless, going five innings with no runs, six Ks, six hits and just one walk.
If Lester or Buchholz get called up to start Monday, they would get the added bonus of being a two-start pitcher in Fantasy Week 13 (June 25-July 1). Gabbard starts Thursday night and could slot next Tuesday after Tavarez goes on regular rest Monday. The Red Sox's day off Thursday allows that.
After Gabbard's start Thursday in Indianapolis, the Red Sox could announce their decision. After all, they are going on a six-game road trip to San Diego (this weekend) and Seattle (early next week) and might want to take their No. 5 starter on the charter with them.
On the verge
Here are some of our favorite prospects who are in the minor leagues and are worth tracking closely (stats through June 20):
| Minor league hotlist | ||
| Position, player, team | Minor league stats | |
| 1 | SP Jon Lester, BOS | A-Triple-A: (1-3), 2.40 ERA, 43 K, 1.154 WHIP |
| He hasn't been as impressive as Buchholz or even Gabbard in June. | ||
| 2 | SP Kason Gabbard, BOS | Triple-A: (6-2)-3.26-58-1.217 |
| Quietly he has outpitched Lester through three starts in June. | ||
| 3 | SP Clay Buchholz, BOS | Double-A: (5-2)-1.82-100-0.905 |
| We'd like his chances of a promotion better if he was on the 40-man roster already. | ||
| 4 | OF Adam Jones, SEA | Triple-A: .324 AVG, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 52 R, 5 SB |
| Among hitters, no one's hotter than he is in the minor leagues right now. | ||
| 5 | SP Matt Garza, MIN | Triple-A: (3-6)-3.71-81-1.350 |
| Scott Baker's solid outing and Garza's bad last one holds him back. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SP Billy Buckner, KC SP Mike Pelfrey, NYM; 1B Joey Votto, CIN; SP Eric Hurley, TEX; OF Justin Upton, ARI; OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS; OF Colby Rasmus, STL; OF Wladimir Balentien, SEA; SP Garrett Olson, BAL; SP Radhames Liz, BAL; DH/C Taylor Teagarden, TEX; SP Gio Gonzalez, CHW; SP William Inman, MIL; SP Jeff Niemann, TB; SP Troy Patton, HOU; 3B Neil Walker, PIT; C Landon Powell, OAK; DH Jason Botts, TEX; 3B Joel Guzman, TB; 1B Steven Pearce, PIT; OF Rick Ankiel, STL; SS Reid Brignac, TB; 3B Evan Longoria, TB; SP Nick Adenhart, LAA; SS Sean Rodriguez, LAA; OF Travis Snyder, TOR; SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD; SP Max Scherzer, ARI; SP Joba Chamberlain, NYY; SP Chris Mason, TB; SP Wade Townsend, TB; SP Wade Davis, TB; SP Blake Hawksworth, STL. | ||
Rookie watch
Here are the top rookies in Fantasy to date (stats through June 20):
| Top 5 AL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats to date | |
| 1 | SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS | 8-5, 4.18 ERA, 93 K, 1.273 WHIP, 0 SV |
| Dice-K has been among top 15 Fantasy starting pitchers all season. | ||
| 2 | SP Jeremy Guthrie, BAL | (4-1)-2.72-56-0.894-0 |
| In a disastrous season in Baltimore, he is one bit of good news. | ||
| 3 | OF Reggie Willits, LAA | .337 AVG, 0 HR, 20 RBI, 37 R, 18 SB |
| Leads all major league rookies with 37 runs scored and 18 steals. | ||
| 4 | RP Hideki Okajima, BOS | (2-0)-1.01-31-0.813-4 |
| Setup men rarely make an impact in Fantasy, but this guy has. | ||
| 5 | 2B Dustin Pedroia, BOS | .323-3-23-28-0 |
| The Red Sox might hit a trifecta in AL Rookie of the Year vote. | ||
| Honorable mentions: 3B Akinori Iwamura, TB; SP Brian Bannister, KC; OF Delmon Young, TB; SP Andrew Miller, DET; SP Kevin Slowey, MIN; OF Travis Buck, OAK; 3B Josh Fields, CHW; OF Elijah Dukes, TB; RP Dustin Moseley, LAA; RP Joakim Soria, KC; SP John Danks, CHW; 3B Alex Gordon, KC; SP Brian Burres, BAL; RP Santiago Casilla, OAK. | ||
| Top 5 NL Fantasy Rookies | ||
| Position, player, team | Rotisserie stats | |
| 1 | OF Hunter Pence, HOU | .351 AVG, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 22 R, 5 SB |
| This guy only seems to get better and hotter as season wears on. | ||
| 2 | OF Josh Hamilton, CIN | .263-10-22-25-3 |
| Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn rumors swirl; he's going nowhere. | ||
| 3 | 3B Ryan Braun, MIL | .305-4-13-21-2 |
| He has already become a trusted middle-of-the-order slugger. | ||
| 4 | SP Justin Germano, SD | (5-1), 2.63 ERA, 24 K, 0.958 WHIP, 0 SV |
| Late bloomer finally lost, but he still managed to pitch well. | ||
| 5 | SP Micah Owings, ARI | (5-1)-4.06 ERA-45-1.415-0 |
| He is giving up baserunners, but he's a steady SP for contender. | ||
| Honorable mentions: SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL; OF Carlos Gomez, NYM; SP Yovani Gallardo, MIL; SP Homer Bailey, CIN; SP Chris Sampson, HOU; SP Tim Lincecum, SF; OF Chris Young, ARI; C Carlos Ruiz, PHI; C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, ATL; 3B Mark Reynolds, ARI; OF Felix Pie, CHC; RP Henry Owens, FLA; OF Michael Bourn, PHI. | ||
Baby talk
Simon Krauss: Right now I have an open spot in my pitching rotation, a very good one with Johan Santana and John Lackey, and all the young "phenom" pitchers are still available. So my question is, who do you think will have the best season: Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo, Andrew Miller or Jon Lester?
Emack: Bailey is nice, but on a non-contender. We cannot be sure the other three will stick around the rest of the way either. With all things being equal right now, Gallardo's superior strikeout potential makes him the most intriguing of that elite group.
Rick Jones, Miami: I keep looking at Brandon Wood on my waiver wire. Has he lost all his gleam? Do you think he will ever become the player he was supposed to be? I picked up Josh Fields, but have so far been disappointed in him, as well. My team is pretty boss right now, but I'm thinking about 2008. Should I forget about Wood and start thinking about Ian Stewart or Evan Longoria?
Emack: Coming into the season, it was a no-brainer. But Wood hasn't been very good in Triple-A this season. We like what Longoria is doing in Double-A, though. He doesn't steal bases like Ryan Braun or Alex Gordon might, but he's on their level as a future 3B slugger. Give him a look over Wood at this point.
You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Prospects Report in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we do not guarantee personal responses to all questions.
