Every spring there are a handful of players that jump out at you on the statsheet. It's as if over the winter, they've suddenly matured into stellar ballplayers with several All-Star appearances in their immediate future.
Then you realize that they've only had about 20 at-bats this spring, most of them coming against inferior pitching or possibly even split squads ... and there's nowhere for them to go on their respective major league clubs.
I thought it would be prudent to give you an idea of what you should expect from these spring breakout players for the upcoming season -- and beyond. Should you invest in some of these players after such a small sampling? Will their March uprising convert into April dividends? Will Charlie finally get killed on "Lost" so I can stop expecting Frodo Baggins to come in and save the day?
Breakout players of note
Miguel Montero, C, ARI: Montero came on strong late last season and is battling Chris Snyder for the starting gig in Arizona. Montero is hitting .471 in seven games (three starts) to Snyder's .182 in six games (five starts). But Snyder nearly hit for the cycle in a "B" game. I expect both of these players to share starts throughout most of the season, making them NL-only draft worthy.
James Loney, 1B, LAD: The Dodgers are doing what they can to find at-bats for Loney. Monday, against the Orioles, they gave him some time in right field. His arrival in the majors might be indirectly tied to Wilson Betemit. If the latter can't improve by the end of March, Nomar Garciaparra could move to third, opening first base for Loney. Consider him in the later rounds of NL-only formats.
Daric Barton, 1B, OAK: With Dan Johnson hitting only .208 this spring, many are already calling for the arrival of one of Oakland's top prospects. But the former Cardinals' catching prospect has to also overcome Erubiel Durazo, who is having a very nice spring. Barton will be up at some point, sooner rather than later (he's hitting .529 this spring), so pick him up in-season in larger mixed leagues. Baseball America notes that he is the best pure hitter in the A's system.
Brad Eldred, 1B, PIT: While the Adam LaRoche trade sounded like a great idea a couple months ago, the Pirates are now searching for a spot (right field?) for the slugging Eldred. Adam Dunn was the last player Eldred's size (275 pounds) to roam the outfield, but Eldred has experience playing there in college at Florida International. Glass trinkets in the gift stores at PNC Park will be rattling off their shelves as the big fella tracks down a flyball, since his four homers (and 25 total bases) this spring portend to greater things this summer. I'll spend a late pick on this kid in mixed leagues right now since there will be so many corner infielders available in free agency, it's a good gamble.
Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL: No one started this spring stronger than Braun, but a sore throwing elbow has sidelined him recently. With Corey Koskie (concussion) still sidelined, Braun might be able to make up more ground once he gets back on the field.
Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN: The Devil Rays tried to pull a fast one, slipping him through the Rule 5 Draft, but the Reds made a move, trading for him after the Cubs picked up the former No. 1 overall selection. They are giving him a ton of at-bats this spring and he's hitting .538 with a 1.408 OPS. Ryan Freel has already come down with his 29th injury of the past three seasons and MLB is talking about renaming it the "15-day Ken Griffey Jr. list" in honor of the future Hall of Famer. (I originally wrote that he's likely headed to the minors for more seasoning, but readers kindly pointed out that since he's a Ruler 5-er, he either makes the Reds or heads back to St. Pete. What that means is two things: 1. Sometimes I think I must have eaten paint chips as a child. 2. Hamilton's chances of making the team are excellent. They're not going to give him this amount of at-bats, let him produce, then cut him loose. Grab him late in NL-only leagues and even some larger mixed leagues if you have rookie keeper drafts.)
Hunter Pence, OF, HOU: Pence is batting .636 and is likely the player you've heard the most about this March. His 26 total bases this spring leads the majors and he has power to both sides. The only problem with Pence's emergence for me is that he could beat out Luke Scott (.300-1-3) for the right field job. The winner of this job will be in for a big 2007 -- making them both worthy of selection late in mixed leagues.
Billy Butler, OF, KC: The Royals have already said that Butler will start the season in the minors. They are working on getting Mark Teahen acclimated to the outfield and Alex Gordon at third base, so this just seems like they are waiting until the team is settled before forcing Butler into their lineup. Can they keep him there until the All-Star break? If DH Mike Sweeney gets hurt (which is like asking gravity to happen), and Ross Gload disappoints, Butler could arrive sooner. He's hitting .526 with eight RBI this spring.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL: What's not to like here? Gallardo is the Brewers' top prospect, and as a power-pitching righty, he gets strikeouts by the handful. "He hasn't been really wide-eyed, walking around out there," said manager Ned Yost. "He's fit right in, like he belongs, from the minute he walked in here." He has to beat out Claudio Vargas (8.22 spring ERA) or wait for Ben Sheets to come down with yet another odd injury -- two very likely events. Gallardo led all minor-leaguers in '06 with 188 strikeouts. The past two minor-league strikeout leaders? Brandon McCarthy in '04 and Francisco Liriano in '05. Draft Gallardo as a reserve starter in mixed leagues if you can stash him. If you draft Sheets, spend a late pick on Gallardo as well.
Adam Wainwright, SP, STL: Speaking of McCarthy, one of the biggest reasons I expect to see him break out this season is because of the time he spent in middle relief with the White Sox, learning the nuances of pitching in the majors. Wainwright is in a similar situation with St. Louis, finally earning a rotation spot this spring. He still hasn't allowed a run in spring training and don't underestimate what pitching coach Dave Duncan will be able to do with the former Braves prospect. Jason Isringhausen (hip) is getting healthy, so Wainwright probably won't close. I'm suggesting you draft both pitchers in the 13th-15th rounds, which could translate into around 12-14 wins and 30-plus saves.
Lance Cormier, SP, ATL: Until his most recent start, Kyle Davies was struggling this spring. That opened the door for Lance Cormier to hold down the fifth starter's job in Atlanta. The injury to Mike Hampton might have further helped his cause, but Mark Redman's arrival hurts it. His curveball is above average and NL-only owners will want to take advantage of him.
Angel Guzman, SP, CHC: Guzman was a former top prospect for the Cubs, but a torn labrum a few seasons ago derailed his progress and he has since been floating through the organization. He threw 56 innings a year ago, with 10 starts, but his 7.39 ERA indicated he was overmatched. The good news was that he struck out seven or more batters in four appearances. When he's on, he's tough to hit. And so far, he has pitched well enough this spring for the Cubs to talk about using him as their fifth starter. Take a chance on him late in NL-only play.
Shawn Hill, SP, WAS: Hill hasn't played a full season since 2003 because of '04 Tommy John surgery and problems that followed. He has been the Nationals' best starter this spring, allowing only two earned runs in nine innings. "I'm in a good position and it's gotten better each time out, I think," Hill told MLB.com. "But I have three, maybe four, outings left. So if I don't throw well those three outings and people catch on fire, I'm quickly forgotten about. Until March 28, when we head north, I'm not feeling too secure." He had some tightness in his forearm earlier in the spring, but he hopes to be 100 percent soon. He's someone to look at in NL-only formats if you need innings, although he's not going to become a top-of-the-line starter anytime soon.
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE: With Cliff Lee (abdominal) sidelined for the first couple weeks in April, Carmona stands to benefit as his replacement in the rotation. A few good starts there will keep him in line for a regular spot if someone falters or gets injured. He failed miserably in his first attempt at the closer position, but who's to say he can't get another shot if Joe Borowski can't produce? He's AL-only worthy.
Adam Loewen, SP, BAL: Loewen has already tallied up nine strikeouts in two spring starts and the Orioles are elated that he came to camp in better shape than last season, when he went 6-6. He has endured 19 major league starts and his bullpen is much improved from a year ago. He's a former first-round pick that should have a solid sophomore campaign for an AL-only owner.
Andrew Miller, SP, DET: Miller was sent to minor league camp earlier this week and he'll start the year in Class A Lakeland. Don't be misled -- this kid will be in the majors this season and owners will be tripping over each other trying to obtain him off the waiver wire. He'll be 22 years old in May, but the AL champs won't hesitate to bring him back up to the majors if one of their starters lands on the DL.
Henry Owens, RP, FLA: Looking for saves? Owens might have happened across the closer's job in his first year with the Marlins now that Taylor Tankersley (shoulder inflammation) is expected to miss at least the first couple weeks of the season. So far, Owens has not allowed an earned run in six innings. If you're caught short on saves, take a chance on the 27-year-old righty.
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