Stealing Roto points in steals

Enough time has passed for you to get a serious look at what your Rotisserie team has to offer. Slumps have come and gone. Streaks have been busted. And players' numbers are starting to give a clear indicator of what they'll offer you for the remainder of the season.

The steals category is possibly the easiest way to quickly climb in Rotisserie points, although you have to be careful that you don't lose so much in power/average that your gain in steals is negated.

Before the season started, we took a look at last year's steals compared to previous seasons, and we noticed that speed was slowly becoming more abundant than power. The steroids era at its peak forced teams to question whether they should send runners when the next player up to bat might hit one out.

There were 42 hitters that stole at least 20 bags in '07, but only 35 reached that number in '06.

Actually, from 2003-05, base-stealing was at its lowest valley since the early '70s. From '03 to '07, there was a 13.4-percent increase in total steals. Are those numbers holding up for this season? Considering MLB teams are on pace to steal 3,010 bases -- up another 90 from a 2007 -- then yes, the numbers are holding up. Although taking off a percentage for slow legs late in the season will probably bring the number back to average.

It's a team sport

Either way you look at it, teams are stealing bases a lot -- and that means a few things for Fantasy owners:

• With every stolen base, the Rotisserie value of a stolen base drops just a bit.
• A rise in speed usually indicates a drop in power (making power more valuable).
• There should be a decent amount of stolen base players available either in free agency or in a cheap trade.

Two new teams are suddenly in the mix among the leaders so far. Boston and Houston, two teams that historically rank in the bottom in this category, are running much more often. There are seven clubs on pace to steal at least 144 bags -- a number only the Mets and Orioles registered last year (and no team stole that many bags in '04). The promotion of Jacoby Ellsbury (18) for the Red Sox, and the Astros' acquisition of Michael Bourn (19) make up most of the difference on those teams. And having Kazuo Matsui (one steal every 11 at-bats) hitting second has also been huge for Houston.

On the other end of that spectrum, the White Sox have gone from the small-ball speedsters from their '05 World Series run to the second-lowest base-stealing team in the majors (Farewell, Scott Podsednik).

We noted before the season started that if your Fantasy team gets close to 200 steals by year's end, you should own the category. Looking at the current numbers, these Rotisserie totals hold true for the most part. If your team steals around 180 bases, you should land in the top three. And 140 stolen bases should make you top six in the category. If your roster is on pace (multiply your steals by 3.6 right now to give you a 162-game average) for just 100 bases, you might as well trade any speed guys you have because you'll get one point when you finish 12th with 100 steals or 10 steals. At least that way you can bolster other spots on your roster. The table to the right is the current stolen base numbers in the Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters.

Looking at it one player at a time

Looking at the players atop the stolen base leaderboard, you see familiar names like Ichiro Suzuki (20), Willy Taveras (18), Juan Pierre (17), Hanley Ramirez (13), Carl Crawford (12) and Jose Reyes (12). There are even a few new names that we expected to make an appearance, like Bourn (19) and Carlos Gomez (16). There are 15 batters with at least 10 stolen bases at this point of the season (up from 12 last year, 14 from '06, 13 in '05, and just six in '04).

Reyes stole 78 bags last season, which is the highest number for any player in a season since Rickey Henderson stole 93 bags in 1998. Reyes had 25 steals at this point last year, but he has less than half that number now. The Mets as a whole came into the season a little overanxious, and as the leadoff hitter, Reyes was certainly a major part of that. He's starting to become a little more patient at the plate -- eight May steals compared to nine April steals. But as he proved last season, he can post a 20-steal month at any time. Now is not the time to trade him.

As hot as Bourn was to start the season, manager Cecil Cooper was forced to drop him down to eighth in the lineup this past weekend. It didn't last long and Bourn has been leading off in the past two games again. The move worked, with Bourn hitting safely in all four games, with two runs scored, two RBI and two stolen bases. He has been called the fastest man in baseball right now -- and we don't dispute it. His hitting hasn't been as hot as it was, so you might still be able to acquire him relatively cheap.

Brian Roberts stole 50 bases a season ago, and he had a big spring while his name floated around in trade rumors. After snatching nine bags in April, he has also slowed considerably (two in May). He has just three stolen base attempts in his past 15 games and the likelihood that he's going to match last year's number is going away. As a second baseman, the 30-year-old still helps in other categories.

Sabermetricians have pointed out that in order for the risk/reward of a stolen base attempt to be fruitful, a runner will have to be successful around 75 percent of the time. The only runners among the top 30 in the category right now that have a success rate of 70 percent or lower are Corey Hart (70 percent), Corey Patterson (70), Rickie Weeks (70), B.J. Upton (67), Eugenio Velez (62) and Ryan Theriot (56). The more they are unsuccessful would make their managers less likely to give them the green light next time around.

Upton, specifically, has been one of the worst decision makers on the basepaths this season -- stolen bases or not. He has been thrown out at third base a number of times trying to stretch doubles into triples (he has yet to run out a triple this season), and he's often caught overrunning a base or getting caught in a pickle. Sooner or later, manager Joe Maddon is going to lose his patience and put the stop sign up earlier.

Gregor Blanco is seeing the majority of the platoon in left field for the Braves, and his three steals in 78 at-bats is a ratio that should increase with regular playing time. He stole 23 bases in 124 games in '07 and 31 bases in 139 games in '06. But the best stat of all is this: he's owned in just two percent of CBSSports.com leagues.

Some other speedsters you might consider acquiring for steals help:

• Chone Figgins is close to returning from a hamstring injury. He has stolen 47 bases in his past 120 games played. Only Pierre, Reyes, Crawford and Ramirez have a higher number since June 1 of last year -- and Figgins did it in 100 fewer at-bats.
• Dave Roberts is still a few weeks from returning from knee surgery, but the veteran has averaged over 35 steals in the past six seasons. The Giants are going young, but he could see enough time to steal 15-plus bases in the second half.
• Top prospect Jay Bruce is owned in half of CBSSports.com leagues right now anyway, but once he arrives within the next month, he should be able to offer double-digit steals. You'll be picking him up for much bigger reasons than his speed however.
• Andrew McCutchen is batting .284 with 13 steals at Triple-A Indianapolis. Unfortunately, he's blocked by the breakout player of year so far, Nate McLouth, in center field for Pittsburgh.
• Jerry Owens remains in the minors despite the White Sox struggling in the leadoff spot. Owens won a spot in spring training, but a groin injury sidelined him in April. Through 34 minor league games at Triple-A Charlotte, he has 10 steals, but just a .224 batting average.
• Cameron Maybin is batting .247 with six homers, 13 RBI, 26 runs scored and 10 stolen bases in 41 games at Double-A Carolina. The Marlins don't have much in front of him in center field (Alfredo Amezaga and Cody Ross), but he'll need to hit more consistently at this level before they rush the 21-year-old.

2008 Tout Wars

• ToutWars.com
• Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters
• Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters
• Tout Wars: NL-only Standings and Rosters

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