You have digested our suggestions on the 27-year-old hitters to target, but hitting is just half the battle in baseball. To find the sleeper and breakthrough pitchers, we suggest something even deeper than age.
That is: Experience.
Traditionally, a pitcher's prime begins after he has a number of starts under his belt. The arm needs to be conditioned for 30-plus starts and 200-plus innings and it's around a pitcher's third full year, the arm, his mind and for feel the league and craft combine for a breakthrough.
Here are our top 10 of such pitchers who will outperform their draft value:
1. Felix Hernandez, 20, Mariners
Last season was a humbling experience for the 20-year-old and his Fantasy owners, who had to take him far too early after his smashing debut in 2005. Some of those owners might be left bitter on Draft Day ... and this season is precisely the wrong time to not pursue "the next Pedro Martinez."
2. Ervin Santana, 24, Angels
Among active pitchers with 40-70 career starts, no one has posted more than Santana's 28 victories, according to Elias Sports Bureau. His 16 wins and 204 innings portend great things in Year 3.
3. Scott Kazmir, 23, Devil Rays
Kazmir would be higher on this list if not for some injury questions or a potential lack of wins potential. Those could be the blessings that cause the filthy strikeout machine to fall to you on Draft Day, though. The Devil Rays don't figure to come close to the .500 mark, which makes it difficult to expect 15 wins out of him.
4. Chien-Ming Wang, 27, Yankees
OK, this looks like cheating. He won 19 games last year and has a better chance of being overvalued for the potential run support he will receive. But he had a low strikeout rate and a bad ratio of hits-per-inning last season that stand to improve this year. Also, he has that 27-year-old thing going for him, which is nice.
5. Dave Bush, 27, Brewers
His ERA (4.41) was unusually high for a pitcher with his WHIP (1.138), strikeout-to-walk rate (166-38) and less than a hit-per-inning. Combine that with the fact he's 27 and the Brewers will be a sleeper contender, you have an unheralded late-round steal.
6. Joe Blanton, 26, Athletics
Blanton is the only third-year starting pitcher who can match Santana's 28 wins -- albeit with a less impressive WHIP and fewer strikeouts. Blanton is durable, if inconsistent, and should be able to assume a greater role after the departure of Barry Zito.
7. Chris R. Young, 27, Padres
Yet another 27-year-old, third-year starting pitcher, we dig the synergy. He should be able to smoke his career highs across the Rotisserie board: 12 wins, 3.46 ERA, 164 Ks and 1.132 WHIP.
8. Jeff Francis, 26, Rockies
Francis turned the corner not only for himself, but the history of his organization, which has been unable to find a pitcher to tame Coors Field. The humidor helps, but Francis is 16-8 in his home starts the past two seasons. An emerging young lineup should get him consistent run support and make him a 15-plus game winner.
9. Zach Duke, 23, Pirates
If this list was strictly about talent, Duke would be much closer to the top. After another impressive September, the lefty is primed to put a full season together. The problem is how frustrating will it be for Fantasy owners when he's losing 3-2 ballgames for the lowly Pirates? Very.
10. Gustavo Chacin, 26, Blue Jays
His second season was far less impressive than his first, but it was attributed to an elbow thing. Assuming that's in check -- no reason to think it's not -- Chacin can be a 13- to 15-game winner for an expected contender. Only Wang, Young and Santana have a better career winning percentage among those on this list.
Others with 40-70 career starts who should be their best yet: Wandy Rodriguez, HOU; Brad Hennessey, SF; Zack Greinke, KC; Brad Halsey, OAK; Brandon Claussen, WAS.
27-year-old SPs 1. Brandon Webb, ARI 2. C.C. Sabathia, CLE 3. Josh Beckett, BOS 4. Brett Myers, PHI 5. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY 6. Chris R. Young, SD 7. Dan Haren, OAK 8. Dave Bush, MIL 9. Jon Garland, CHW 10. Mark Prior, CHC
27-year-old RPs 1. Jose Valverde, ARI 2. Rafael Soriano, ATL 3. Pat Neshek, MIN 4. Todd Coffey, CIN 5. Duaner Sanchez, NYM
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