Tigers starter Justin Verlander is in a bit of a rut this season. His ERA (3.71) and WHIP (1.39) are the highest they've been since 2008. He's giving up hits at a higher rate than any year since his rookie campaign and he's walking batters at the highest rate in six seasons.
Additionally, Verlander's velocity (93.6 mph average fastball) is at its lowest point since that disappointing 2008 season. And he's given up five or more runs four times this season; he had done that five times combined over the last two.
Is it time to worry about Verlander? The drop in velocity is definitely a problem (one we discussed on Fantasy Baseball Today)-- especially considering the accompanying rise in ERA and WHIP. But dropping him in the ranks is a slippery slope. On one hand, there are raw numbers that back up a downgrade. On the other hand -- and this is just pure guesswork -- it may just be a case of Verlander holding back a little bit early in order to be fresh for the playoffs. Still, it becomes a battle of objective stats against a series of logic games, and the stats may win out here.
I'm downgrading Verlander to fourth overall in my SP ranks -- a pretty large move, considering he was No. 1 overall. There may be more to the velocity drop, and I have to factor that in to his value. But I'm not dramatically sending him out of the top 10, in case he comes back in the second half pitching like his old self.