Different owners from the Tout Wars expert league will be submitting a guest Fantasy Baseball column to CBSSports.com each week. This week's columnist, Joe Sheehan, writes for Baseball Prospectus.
What do you do when it all goes wrong in a non-keeper league?
I have had the unfortunate experience of having to answer that question in AL Tout Wars not once, but twice. Back in 2006, I finished last, largely because I did a really poor job at the auction. In season, I made a couple of minor deals, but mostly just accepted my fate and, like many Fantasy players, focused on the leagues in which I could actually do something productive, either contending or making deals to improve in future years. I finished last that season, and while mildly embarrassing, I brushed it off on my way to a triumphant tie for eighth last year.
Coming off that huge season, Team BP made one change for 2008: it put someone else at the draft table. I was unable to make the auction -- a bitter disappointment, since I play in Tout largely because of the people involved -- and had BP's Derek Jacques pinch-hitting for me. It was a tough assignment for someone who didn't have much auction experience, and when our planned draft-day communications fell through, he was put in a tough spot. Still, I liked the team; Derek did a better job than I usually do of getting playing time, and didn't go all upside-happy -- or hitter-happy -- as I tend to do at the table. It was the most balanced team in BP's Tout Wars history, featuring David Ortiz, Jorge Posada, J.J. Putz, Clay Buchholz, Chien-Ming Wang ...
... are you catching on yet?
I wouldn't say that success in AL Tout is directly correlated to health, but there's a strong relationship. With 168 active offensive roster spots -- or about a 1:1 ratio with actual AL roster spots used on hitters -- there's very little maneuverability if you get hit with a key injury or three. In my best season, finishing second to Sam Walker in 2005, I don't think I had a single injury of note during the entire year. This season ... has been different. Losing so much auction value to the DL crippled the team, and while the back end of the roster was oddly productive -- guys like Marco Scutaro and Shannon Stewart played a lot more than they should have through the end of May -- it wasn't enough. After peaking between eighth and ninth place in May, we fell quickly to the bottom of the standings, and were in line, a week ago, to challenge Ask Rotoman's record of 29 points, set during the 2000 season.
Well, I didn't want to do this again. I remembered something Matthew Berry had written earlier this year in ESPN the Magazine, about how, in a similar situation, he turned over his entire roster and ended up finishing third. Matthew is taller, wealthier and better-looking than I am, and is on TV more, so this seemed like a pretty good idea. I sent out a blast e-mail to the league:
Subj: Trade with me. Please.
Well, I really hate this team. So I have one goal for this week: to turn over as much of it as I can. I want to make as many 1-for-X, where "X" is >=2, trades as I can. I'm not looking to be violated; I want to get value back. But I want to see if I can turn quality into quantity and give Berry a run for 10th.
I have 20 points over the freaking minimum and something like $120 of auction value has missed most of the season. If anyone has a BETTER idea, let me know.
Not that I was desperate or anything. The initial responses reflected my tone, as the sharks gathered, offering a 10 and two singles for my $20 bills, the ones with pictures of Jacoby Ellsbury and Roy Halladay on them. By Wednesday, I was resigned to perhaps not making any trades, but over time, things picked up. The offers got a little better each day, and by Thursday afternoon, I was ready to pull the trigger on a deal. Lawr Michaels had two of my favorite upside plays, and by packaging them, he got himself an ace starting pitcher:
Sheehan -- Baseball Prospectus trade Roy Halladay to Michaels -- Creative Sports.com for Daniel Cabrera and Melky Cabrera.
As disappointing as Melky Cabrera has been, he's an everyday player -- a huge piece for a team lacking them -- and at 23, someone with talent and upside. I pegged him for a power breakout coming into 2008, and while that hadn't happened yet, I liked the idea of snagging him low and hoping for the best. The downgrade to Daniel Cabrera is a risk; I would suggest that anyone who can predict what he'll do in his next three starts, much less three months, is kidding themselves. High risk, high reward play.
My favorite thing happened then: the people offering nickels on the dollar jumped in to tell me they would have offered more than I got for Halladay. I suppose objectively, this is true, but my goals for the week weren't to make even deals. I needed to add playing time, and I wanted to capture upside. Those are virtually impossible to do in a one-year league of AL Tout Wars' depth, so I had to be willing to make deals that I could most definitely lose.
Now, having made a trade with Lawr, I had one fewer potential partner. See, it was important to me to not be the guy who changes the league; I established a rule that I would not trade more than one stud to any one team, so as not to hear, down the road, "Oh, that was the year Sheehan and Michaels won the league." I've seen too many leagues screwed up by what wasn't collusion so much as momentum, and I didn't want to do that to my friends in Tout Wars. If I was going to dump, I would do so evenly.
That was the point behind the blast e-mail, to let everyone know my roster was up for grabs. I got inquiries at some level or another from nine of the other 11 Touts. Jeff Erickson didn't check in -- he's still bitter that I can occasionally beat him outright on the golf course these days -- and I heard nothing from Rick Wilton. Everyone else at least asked after Ellsbury or Crawford, in that order.
It was Steve Moyer, though, with whom I made the next deal. He was reluctant to make an offer, so I threw out the idea that Jason Kubel, who I have an unnatural attraction to, could be part of an Ellsbury deal with other players. Steve offered back Eric Hinske and Rafael Betancourt, and while I didn't need another middle reliever, Hinske's hold on playing time in Tampa seemed solid enough to warrant my interest. Shelley Duncan, back in Triple-A, was holding down my first-base slot, so Hinske would be an upgrade. There was a lot of interest in Ellsbury, which enabled me to be aggressive in asking for what I wanted. It was close among Sam Walker, Ron Shandler and Jason Grey, but in the end, Steve got his man.
Sheehan -- Baseball Prospectus trade Jacoby Ellsbury, Joel Guzman and Nathan Haynes to Moyer -- Baseball Info Solutions for Eric Hinske, Jason Kubel and Glen Perkins.
Kubel is an upside play whose numbers have been lousy, but who was a great hitter before his knee injury. If nothing else, he's going to play 75 percent of the time, which makes him a deity on my roster. Hinske is a playing-time grab -- he seems fifth in the OF/DH/1B mix in Tampa, safe in a platoon role in right field until and unless Rocco Baldelli returns (and I have Baldelli). The last spot was a toss-up between Perkins and Nick Blackburn, two Twins starters I like equally well. I chose Perkins, who I think will be slightly better the rest of the season, and Steve let me have him.
There's something else going on here as well. I am utterly convinced that I got the meat of Ellsbury’s season. His peripherals have spiraled downward in June, and he has so little power than I suspect pitchers are starting to just knock the bat out of his hands. With fewer times on base, and what will probably be a tendency to steal less as the season wears on, I strongly suspect that Ellsbury won't get to 60 steals this year. I feel like I traded him at a high point.
Now, Jed Latkin took over. Jed asked after most of my roster at one time or another, even offering to trade entire teams at one point. When I dealt away Halladay and Ellsbury -- who he wanted very much -- he stepped up his efforts. His enthusiasm and imagination were a spur to a trade, which we consummated after 300 or so e-mails -- despite Jed's repeated attempts to get me on the phone -- on Friday morning:
Sheehan -- Baseball Prospectus trade Carl Crawford, Mark Grudzielanek and Shannon Stewart to Latkin -- Movie Star for Alexi Casilla, Jeremy Reed and Vernon Wells.
I broke my rule on trading more than one player because 1) Grudzielanek isn't a star and 2) I couldn't leave the part of the trade where I dealt him for Casilla on the table. A month ago, I missed FAABing Casilla by a buck, losing him to Jed. He's played very well since, and I think he'll outplay Grudzielanek the rest of the way.
As far as the meat of the deal, it was primarily an upside bet on Reed, who could be in line for regular playing time in the aftermath of the Mariners' purge. Don't forget that he was Baseball Prospectus' No. 10 prospect in 2005. (On second thought, do forget that.) He's 27 years old, still has some OBP and speed skills, and could be 75 percent of Ellsbury over the last 14 weeks of the season. Vernon Wells was mostly a playing-time play, someone who should improve over his early-season stats.
In the end, I wasn't able to deal David Ortiz or J.J. Putz, although there was interest in both injured players. I elected to keep Jorge Posada, who is basically impossible to replace now that he's healthy again. The net effect was to trade three stars and Grudzielanek for eight players, all of whom join my starting lineup, some of whom are upgrades over complete nobodies. I had goals at the start of the week, and with the three deals, I accomplished them. I don't think this team can win the league, but I do think it can climb into the middle of the pack. Given the injuries we had, if Team BP can finish eighth or higher, I would consider that a successful year.
More importantly, though, I had fun doing it. Two years ago, when the team fell apart, I pretty much hand-waved it. This time, I did something about it. Let's face it: talking trade is one of the fun parts of running a Fantasy team, and last week, I got enough trade talk to last a lifetime. Now, I can look back and remember the 2008 AL Tout Wars team not as the year I missed the auction, or the year we lost $150 to the DL, but the year I made all the trades in June.
Now, if I could just find someone to take Melvin Mora ...
- Tout Wars main website
- Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters
- Tout Wars: NL-only Standings and Rosters
You can e-mail Mr. Sheehan a question or a comment about this column to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put "Attn: Tout Wars" in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.