The sports landscape in Philadelphia is kind of bleak right now. The Phillies might be the worst, most hopeless team in baseball. The Flyers are set to miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. The Eagles have had one of the strangest offseasons of anyone in the NFL, and it's not clear whether they are better right now than they were a year ago.
And then there's the 76ers, owners of a combined .231 winning percentage over the last two seasons and the fifth-worst offensive rating in the NBA since the advent of the 3-point line. You could argue that this 76ers team, as bad as they are, might have the brightest future in the city -- it depends on how high you are on Sam Bradford, I guess.
A big reason the 76ers' future is so bright is the progress they've shown on the defensive end of the floor this season, thanks to the presence of rookie big man Nerlens Noel. The 76ers rank 11th in the NBA in defensive rating, and Noel is threatening to become the first player in NBA history to post a block percentage of 5.0 and steal percentage of 3.0 or more.
Fantasy owners in category-based leagues know what kind of impact Noel has made lately, as he is averaging 13.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 2.4 blocks per game since the All-star break.
Amazingly, Noel is not even the biggest reason for optimism with this team; that would be Joel Embiid who, like Noel before him, has missed all of his first season recovering from a serious injury. Of course, the potential overlap between Noel and Embiid's skill sets means the duo's fit is going to be the biggest question looking ahead to next season.
Can Noel work with another big?
Of the two questions, this is the easier one to answer, but there's still a lot of speculation required. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Noel has played an estimated 94 percent of his minutes at center this season, but that is an imperfect measure. What we want to do is look for lineup combinations that have featured Noel next to another big man, to see if there is any impact on his personal production.
The 76ers don't play with multiple big men often, preferring to space the floor around Noel. However, they do have a handful of "classic" big men, including Henry Sims, Furkan Aldemir and Thomas Robinson, so we can get an idea of how Noel plays by looking at his minutes with those three players.
(all numbers per-36 minutes, from NBAWowy.com)
Noel, w/ Sims, Aldemir or Robinson: 725 minutes; 11.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.5 blocks; 45.0 percent shooting
Noel w/o Sims, Aldemir or Robinson: 1,561 minutes; 11.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.6 blocks, 2.3 steals; 47.2 percent shooting
The sample size isn't huge, and the data is noisy -- he has only played 92 and 151 minutes next to Robinson and Aldemir, respectively -- but the takeaway is clear and pretty obvious. When the 76ers space the floor with a smaller shooter next to him, Noel has more room to operate near the rim on offense, and has more responsibility on the other end as well.
All of this raises the question of whether he'll be able to repeat his rookie season performance -- let alone build on his second-half breakout -- when Embiid gets healthy next season.
Noel has improved dramatically as an offensive threat as the season has gone on, and is now shooting 66.3 percent within 3 feet of the rim. That's the good news. The bad news is that Noel is shooting just 29.6 percent outside of 4 feet, so the floor could get cramped if Embiid cannot space the floor. And, as we've seen this season, Noel's production takes a hit when he has to share the floor with a more traditional big man already.
The Great Unknown
Of course, there may be nothing traditional about Embiid.
"This is my range, boy!" - @JoelEmbiid pic.twitter.com/C2FWyIS9jF
— Philadelphia 76ers (@Sixers) February 26, 2015
What made Embiid so enticing as a prospect coming out of the University of Kansas was how much you could project onto him. His combination of true center size and out-of-this world athleticism made him a perfect fit for the modern NBA offense, and the year off his feet has allowed him to put in a lot of work on his perimeter game.
He also showed an impressive amount of skill in the post, ranking 2nd among draft-eligible centers in percentage of possessions used on post-ups and points per possession on those post attempts, according to DraftExpress.com. However, you see where the Noel-Embiid partnership could run into problems when you consider the fact that he took just 11 jumpers all season.
One of these two players is probably going to have to develop consistent range out beyond 15 feet, and that might be asking a lot, regardless of Embiid's prodigious talents. There's a reason the 76ers were reportedly willing to talk about any player on the roster in trades; they are still in asset acquisition mode, and the pieces might not fit yet.
I would bet the 76ers go into next season with both Embiid and Noel penciled in the starting lineup, given how much potential they both have. They aren't going to be competing for a playoff spot next season anyways, so it doesn't really matter how awkward the fit is.
However, it might be worth discounting both Noel and Embiid heading into their first season together. If you have to invest an early draft pick to get your hands on either, the uncertainty surrounding them might make them more risky than they are worth.
