This year's NBA draft was the kind that makes you happy if you didn't have to stake your reputation on a mock draft. From the very first selection, everyone's draft boards were thrown into disarray and the surprises came pretty much nonstop for hours.
Even though the draft class was nearly universally agreed to be lacking in franchise-altering talent, you can count at least five teams that fundamentally altered their outlook moving forward with their actions at Barclays Center. Those impacts will obviously reach the Fantasy court, and it is up to Fantasy owners to determine in what ways the outlook has changed heading into the meat of the offseason.
What follows is a pick-by-pick breakdown of the Fantasy impact of each selection made in the lottery and how each affects not only the incoming rookies, but also the incumbent players whose roles those rookies might be altering.
1. Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett,
F, UNLV
Fantasy Impact: High
This
remains arguably the biggest surprise of an unpredictable draft night.
Bennett landed in a pretty great spot with an elite, young point guard,
but judging his Fantasy value isn't quite as simple as that statement
might make it seem. The Cavaliers already have Tristan Thompson as a recent lottery pick at power forward. Both
measured under 6-foot-8 at the combine, so it is difficult to see either
shifting to center, which creates an immediate log jam at the power
forward spot. Bennett is a skilled scorer who flashed three-point range
in college, but the Cavs' current roster configuration doesn't bode too
well for his immediate success. This selection makes such a big
potential Fantasy impact as much for possibly unseating Thompson as
anything else.
2. Magic select Victor Oladipo, G,
Indiana
Fantasy Impact: Medium
The
cupboard is pretty bare in Orlando and the rumors of an Arron Afflalo trade are only going to grow with Oladipo's selection.
Oladipo flashed a greatly improved jump shot in his third season in
college, but he could struggle with the transition to the longer
three-point line, especially in an Orlando offense without a lot of
other weapons. He's likely to be more of a defensive presence and
secondary offensive option in the pros -- hardly the type of player
Fantasy owners will climb over themselves to select.
3. Wizards select Otto Porter, F,
Georgetown
Fantasy Impact: Medium
This
is a great fit for Porter, though that might not be reflected in his
stat line as a rookie. The Wizards have a tremendous young backcourt and
Porter represents another fantastic building block with Bradley Beal and John Wall. He also
steps into a position of relative depth for the Wizards. Washington has Trevor Ariza's big contract and a desire to bring Martell Webster back as a free agent, so Porter might not have much
room to play huge minutes consistently as a rookie on a team that is
looking to build off a strong second half to make a run to the playoffs.
I think Porter could be looking at a similar rookie season to Golden
State's Harrison Barnes a year ago.
4. Bobcats select Cody Zeller, F,
Indiana
Fantasy Impact: High
Zeller
was consistently productive throughout his college career and was one of
the stars of the combine with his impressive athleticism. So his fall
from grace in the eyes of many talent evaluators is a bit surprising.
Zeller averaged 16.5 points per game while shooting 56.4 percent from
the field as a sophomore in college, and he definitely fits a need for
the Bobcats as a scoring big man. There are concerns about his ability
to finish consistently near the basket against defenders with NBA
length, but the Bobcats have little reason not to give him playing time
right away despite his flaws. Zeller should have no problem representing
an offensive upgrade over what the Bobcats have been running out in
recent years, given how much they leaned on the mediocre Byron Mullens. If Zeller is eligible at center, Fantasy owners might
have a low-end starter on their hands at that shallow position.
5. Suns select Alex Len, C, Maryland
Fantasy
Impact: Low
With the exception of
possibly foreshadowing a Marcin Gortat
trade, there is little for Fantasy owners to concern themselves with
here. Len is considered a big-time project who is also recovering from
surgery to repair a stress fracture in his ankle. You'll find plenty of
differing opinions on his long-term viability (Eye On Basketball's Matt
Moore gave the Suns' an 'F' for their selection), but you won't find
many out there who think Len can produce right away. Count me among that
group.
6. Pelicans select Nerlens Noel, C,
Kentucky
Fantasy Impact: High
This
is the pick that will have the biggest ramifications for Fantasy owners
and it has nothing to do with Noel's ability to impact a game this
season. The Pelicans selected Noel and immediately agreed to trade him
to Philadelphia in exchange for All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday. This trade has far reaching implications, most notably
for knocking last year's Fantasy breakout star Greivis Vasquez out of a starting spot and almost certainly out of New
Orleans. Vasquez was one of the best Fantasy surprises last season, but
he is now in Fantasy no-man's land until the Pelicans decide what to do
with his future.
7. Kings select Ben McLemore, G,
Kansas
Fantasy Impact: Medium
The
Kings presumably have a plan now that the Maloof reign of bumbling
incompetence is over, but it is a bit difficult to see where McLemore
fits into their short-term plans. While Tyreke Evans is a restricted free agent, it would be a surprise to see
Sacramento let the former Rookie of the Year walk away for nothing this
offseason. With Evans and Marcus Thornton
around and taking up significant chunks of cap space, there might not be
a ton of room for McLemore to play, unless the team's makeup changes
quite a bit between now and opening night. I personally love McLemore's
ability to become a big-time contributor down the road, but I'm not sure
this is the best fit for him in the present.
8. Pistons select Kentavious Caldwell-Pope,
G, Georgia
Fantasy Impact: Medium
Initially
I thought this was almost as curious a fit as McLemore in Sacramento,
with the Pistons already having Brandon Knight
and Rodney Stuckey around to fill
minutes at the shooting guard spot. Upon further investigation, however,
Caldwell-Pope should end up seeing plenty of playing time this season,
but it might take a while for that to come to fruition. Stuckey is in
the final year of his contract, so the Pistons might play him early on
to build up trade value before attempting to move him for something of
value. If Jose Calderon returns as a
free agent, Knight will likely continue to split his time between both
guard spots as a sixth man. It might take a few months, but
Caldwell-Pope will be in the starting lineup at some point next season.
9. Timberwolves select: Trey Burke,
G, Michigan
Fantasy Impact: High
Burke's
eventual landing spot, Utah, makes so much more sense than it did when
Minnesota initially selected him. The Jazz are badly in need of a point
guard and Burke is probably the best one joining the pro ranks this
season. He is a solid scorer who can shoot the three well at a high
volume, a skill that is sorely lacking on Utah's current roster. Burke
rarely turned the ball over as a sophomore during Michigan's run to the
National Championship game, an impressive sign for a point guard in
college. Utah's roster is in flux with Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson
entering free agency, but the franchise has young, athletic replacements
ready to make Burke's landing as soft as possible if both should leave.
He should be the starter from day one and is my early pick as the rookie
with the most Fantasy value right away.
10. Trail Blazers select C.J. McCollum,
G, Lehigh
Fantasy Impact: Medium
McCollum
might be a bit redundant with reigning Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard around and the starting backcourt pretty much set,
which is why a move to the bench is obvious. In most situations, that is
a bad sign for a player's Fantasy value, but with Portland's bench so
awful last season, McCollum could end up playing nearly 30 minutes per
game even in that role. The Blazers had no problem playing Eric Maynor 20-plus minutes coming off a major knee injury and his
skill set represents a much poorer fit next to Lillard than McCollum's
does. They would be a bit small in the backcourt together, but don't be
surprised if Portland runs both of them out there for stretches, as they
did with Maynor at times. With four years of college ball under his belt
and a 51.6 percent three-point rate last season, McCollum is going to be
difficult to keep off the floor. He might be worth a look late in drafts
for his immense scoring ability.
11. 76ers select Michael Carter-Williams,
G, Syracuse
Fantasy Impact: High
The
Sixers' trade of Holiday made the drafting of a point guard the obvious
move and there is little reason to think Carter-Williams will not take
on a heavy load right now. The biggest issue is his poor shooting
ability, as he is a solid athlete otherwise, and averaged 7.3 assists
per game last season. In another situation, Carter-Williams might not be
able to find much playing time as he learns to play defense at the NBA
level and tries to figure out NBA defenses without a jump shot. In a
total rebuild like Philadelphia appears to be engaging in, the team
might just throw him out there and let him learn on the fly. That could
be enough to make him worth a look for Fantasy owners.
12. Thunder select Steven Adams, C,
Pittsburgh
Fantasy Impact: Low
The
majority of the centers in this draft are considered projects and Adams
best exemplifies that. He averaged just 7.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per
game as a freshman, and his selection by a likely Finals contender is a
clear sign that playing time will not come easy. It would be a big
surprise if the soon-to-be 20-year-old from New Zealand lands on Fantasy
radars at any point this season.
13. Mavericks select Kelly Olynyk,
C, Gonzaga
Fantasy Impact: Medium
Olynyk
was immediately shipped to Boston, where he could end up being the
Celtics' starting power forward during the midst of a rebuild. The
Celtics have finalized a deal with the Nets that sends Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn, in a major shift in organizational
philosophy. Olynyk was one of the most efficient scorers in the NCAA
last season averaging 18.1 points on 10.7 field-goal attempts per game.
However, there are concerns about how his athleticism and lack of length
will translate to the pros. I think Olynyk's diverse scoring touch
should play well if given a large enough role, so his value hinges on
what direction the Celtics choose to take. I wouldn't draft him in most
Fantasy formats, but as he gets used to the NBA game, he could creep up
as a worthwhile waiver-wire claim down the road.
14. Jazz select Shabazz Muhammad, F,
UCLA
Fantasy Impact: Medium
Muhammad's
fall from grace over the last year has been startling, but he might have
landed in about as good a place as possible. The Timberwolves have
needed a shooting guard for years and Shabazz could be able to step into
the starting lineup eventually. Many of the concerns about Muhammad
(specifically his lack of playmaking ability) are mitigated by ending up
with an elite creator in Ricky Rubio.
There are some concerns about Muhammad's shooting ability, but he did
make 37.7 percent of his threes in college. With Rubio setting him up
for spot-up jumpers and an established team around him to take pressure
off, Muhammad could be a good fit. However, there simply may not be a
ton of shots available for him right away, so Muhammad could end up
being more of a role player, at least in the beginning.
The rest of the draft: The Hawks drafted a very talented point guard in Dennis Schroeder, a possible sign that they do not plan to retain unrestricted free agent Jeff Teague this offseason. ... Dallas acquired Shane Larkin via trade, almost certainly ending the Darren Collison era. ... With free agent talk heating up, the Knicks might have grabbed some J.R. Smith insurance in Tim Hardaway Jr. He could see solid minutes if Smith departs. ... Archie Goodwin might be the best shooting guard in Phoenix right now, but that team is such a mess, I wouldn't touch him until he proves himself. ... Erick Green and Tony Mitchell look like the two second-rounders most likely to contribute.
