With so much action in the first 48 hours, NBA free agency has slowed down considerable over the last couple of weeks. However, you knew all that quiet just meant something big was brewing, and we finally found out what it was building to this weekend, as the Rockets pulled off a trade for Ty Lawson.
Because of Lawson's off-court issues -- three DUI's, including two in the last calendar year -- this wasn't as earth-shattering a deal as it might have been even a few weeks ago. However, there is a lot for Fantasy owners to digest here, so let's get right down to what it means for both the Rockets and Nuggets.
Nuggets receive Kostas Papanikolaou, Pablo Prigioni, Joey Dorseyand Nick Johnson
Fantasy players don't have much reason to care about the players the Nuggets actually received in this deal. Prigioni is expected to be waived shortly, Papanikolaou's contract isn't guaranteed and Dorsey is a 31-year-old who has started 26 games in his career. Johnson is the only player among these four with any potential upside, but he also just shot 34.7 percent from the field and 23.8 percent from 3-point range in limited minutes last season. He has some development in front of him, but probably never turns into anything of note.
So, this deal isn't about what is coming in from Houston, but rather what the Nuggets brought in earlier in the offseason. They selected point guard Emmanuel Mudiay with the No. 7 pick in this year's draft, and this move is clearly all about getting him the minutes he needs.
It became clear Mudiay needs a lot of minutes as soon as he got on the floor at Summer League. Mudiay unsurprisingly struggled with his jumper, and his per-game averages of 12.0 points and 5.8 assists aren't terribly surprising, but he impressed anyone who actually watched the game. Mudiay is a big, athletic point guard who should thrive in a Denver offense surrounded by scorers and shooters.
What the Nuggets' offense will look like under new coach Mike Malone is still unclear, but he's already told reporters he doesn't plan on slowing the team's pace down, which is a good sign. With Wilson Chandler still around and a resurgent Danilo Gallinari in-house as well, Mudiay will have enough help that he won't have to carry the offense, even if he spends more time initiating it than anyone else.
Mudiay has a very good chance to be the best rookie in this class for Fantasy purposes, and should be in the mix with Jahlil Okafor and D'Angelo Russell for the first rookie selected. You don't want to reach for him, but he could have a big rookie season, with Elfrid Payton's 2014-15 as a baseline.
Rockets receive Ty Lawson
The Rockets managed to acquire Lawson without giving up a single member of their playoff rotation, which makes this look like a coup. However, Lawson could be facing a suspension for his off-court troubles, which makes it look a lot less obvious. And, for Fantasy players, the impact of his move to Houston is a bit hard to pin down.
There's no point in questioning how good Lawson can be; he's answered any potential questions over the last two seasons. As the primary playmaker and scorer for the Nuggets, Lawson has averaged 16.3 points and 9.2 assists per game. He finished 14th in the league in Fantasy points per game last season, just behind Damian Lillard and just ahead of Kyrie Irving and Kyle Lowry. Lawson doesn't get as much credit as some of those players, but he's been one of the best guards in Fantasy over the last few seasons.
How good can he be in Houston? Well, that's a much more difficult question to answer. A big part of Lawson's statistical dominance over the last few seasons was how often he had the ball in his hands on a Denver team that didn't really have anyone else who could create their own shot. Lawson had the ball in his hands for 7.3 minutes per game on average last season, per Stats.NBA.com, the ninth-highest total in the league. No other Denver player was in the top-50 in time of possession, and the only players who ranked in the top-150 were reserve point guards who rarely played with Lawson.
Houston, of course, has James Harden, who's a pretty good ball-handler himself. Harden isn't a point guard, per se, but he has acted in that capacity in the context of Houston's offense more often than not lately, with Patrick Beverley serving as more of a shooting guard. That pairing works so well because Beverley doesn't need the ball in his hands, and can take on the toughest defensive assignment, making up for Harden's deficiencies on that end.
Lawson starting next to Harden would create a dynamic ball-handling tandem that few teams in the league could keep up with, but they might give up nearly as much on the other end of the floor. Bringing Lawson might be the best outcome for the Rockets, but it wouldn't be good for Lawson's Fantasy value. You could get away with playing a Lawson-Beverley-Harden trio for stretches, but they have a decision to make for the majority of their minutes.
Lawson is still going to be a valuable Fantasy piece, but there are enough questions about his role that you have to discount him for Draft Day.