I'm getting some real deja vu with Spencer Arrighetti. You know what his recent run reminds me of? Luis Gil.
When Arrighetti broke into the majors, it was pretty clear the stuff gave him the potential to be a difference-maker, but the command was just awful. He walked 35 batters in his first 14 starts, and if the Astros hadn't been absolutely demolished by injuries in the rotation, he probably would have earned a trip back to Triple-A early in the summer. And, despite some impressive standalone performances (and multiple breaking balls that rated out well above average by both Stuff+ and results) he still had an ERA of 5.58 at the end of July and was a total afterthought for Fantasy.
And now, just a month later, he looks like an absolute must-roster pitcher in Fantasy. I can't say I saw this coming, exactly, just like I never saw Gil's ace turn coming earlier in the season. But there's a reason smart pitching analysts have been spending the past few years trying to find a way to quantify stuff, and there's a reason we spend so much of our time as Fantasy analysts talking about whiffs, strikeouts, and the like; because when it all comes together for a pitcher like this, the results can be tremendous.
And they have been for Arrighetti of late. After flirting with a no-hitter Wednesday he finishes August with a 1.95 ER, 47 strikeouts, and only 10 walks in his five starts. Whether he can keep up this improved control is a tough question to answer, but it sure looks like Arrighetti is figuring it all out in real-time, and it's resulted in ace-level production.
I don't expect that to continue. But it was always within the range of possible outcomes once we saw what he was capable of at his best. It's hard to pitch at your best forever, and I still think there's quite a wide range of possible outcomes for Arrighetti moving forward. But the high end is extremely high, and it's worth chasing in all formats. We might just be looking at a true breakout here, and he's certainly worth adding in the 26% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is currently available.
Here's who else we're adding coming out of Wednesday's action, and everything else you need to know from around MLB:
Thursday's waiver targets
David Festa, SP, Twins (28%) – The most interesting thing about this performance from Festa – besides the fact that he went six innings for the first time in his major-league career – is that he leaned on his slider as his primary pitch and got such good results. The changeup has been his best secondary this season, but the slider might be even more important just because it would give him a second good secondary to lean on. The fastball is fine, especially with the extension the 6-foot-6 Festa gets with it, but the changeup has been the only plus pitch for him. If the slider can be something he can throw both for whiffs and for called strikes, that could make the whole profile play up. If Arrighetti isn't available in your league, I'm looking at Festa as an add for the stretch run with some upside.
Rhett Lowder, SP, Reds (18%) – The Reds are calling Lowder up for his MLB debut Friday, per reports, just 14 months after he was the No. 7 pitch in the MLB draft and after just one Triple-A start. It was a very good start, as he struck out seven over six shutout innings, and with the Reds rotation suddenly decimated by injuries, they've decided it's time to see what their top pitching prospect can do. Lowder throws pretty hard, averaging 94.7 mph with his four-seamer in his lone Triple-A start, but it isn't necessarily a well-optimized pitch, featuring more sinking action than you'd prefer if you're looking for whiffs. That has led most scouts to view him as more of a mid-rotation starter, despite the presence of what should be a couple of very good secondaries. You see that in his minor-league numbers, as he dominated in five starts at High-A and then ran into some trouble in Double-A, sporting a 4.31 ERA with his strikeout rate dropping to a pretty pedestrian 23.8% rate. I don't expect Lowder to be a dominant force for Fantasy right away, but he's a talented young pitcher with some upside if he figures it out. With a lack of high-upside pitchers on the wire lately, I'm pretty interested in seeing what he might be capable of.
