In the midst of an incredibly frustrating stretch, we saw a glimpse of peak Carlos Rodon Monday afternoon. Pitching against the Rays, Rodon had arguably his best start of the season, striking out 10 over seven innings, while allowing just one run on two hits and a walk.
And the funny thing is, he did it without abandoning his fastball, the one thing we thought he needed to do to be successful. Rodon threw his four-seamer 54% of the time, allowing just 79.6 mph average exit velocity on eight balls in play; for the season, he had been allowing a 94.1 mph EV with the pitch, a disastrous mark.
When I wrote about Rodon a few weeks ago, I focused primarily on the four-seamer, because, for all its struggles, it still mostly looked like the pitch it used to be. The velocity is still there; the physical characteristics like spin rate and movement pretty much looked like they always had, too. And yet, that pitch had gone from one of the best in baseball in 2021 and 2022 to an outright liability over the past two seasons. And I'm going to need to see a lot more than one good start to buy back in.
But, if nothing else, Monday was a reminder of what Rodon can still be capable of when everything is going right. I don't know if it makes much sense to buy back in on Rodon after this one, but I can at least see the case for it – if Rodon can rediscover his pre-2022 form, you could buy an absolute ace at a huge discount, and Monday was a sign that it might still be in there.
I just don't know if he can do it consistently enough to be more than a boom-or-bust SP4 for Fantasy. That's where I've got him ranked, and I'm going to need to see more than this one start to move him back up.
Tuesday's waiver targets
A recent Cy Young winner might be available on your league's waiver wire right now. And he might still have difference-making potential.
Robbie Ray is set to make his season debut Wednesday for the Giants, after finishing off his rehab from Tommy John surgery in recent days. It's a tough landing spot, with Ray scheduled to face the Dodgers, so expectations should be fairly low for the first start back. But I'm pretty excited to see what the 2021 Cy Young winner can do the rest of the way.
He's made 10 appearances on his rehab assignment, posting a 3.38 ERA in 29.1 innings, but what's most impressive is how he kept getting better as he got closer to his return. It was a somewhat rocky start to his rehab assignment, but Ray closed things out with 16 strikeouts and only three walks in 10.1 innings over his final two outings, and he looked especially sharp in his final outing, dialing his fastball velocity up to 93.7 mph – down a bit from his Cy Young season, but up from 2022, hardly a bad sign given the injury.
One notable aspect of that start is that Ray used his curveball as his No. 2 pitch, not his slider; Ray threw his slider over 30% of the time in 2021 and 2022 while using the curveball less than 10% of the time; in 2022, he threw it just 1.9% of the time. The slider has always been the bread-and-butter pitch for Ray, and it's hard to know if he can be that same guy without it. On the other hand, if the curveball is suddenly a weapon he can rely on consistently, that could make the whole profile play up, even if he isn't quite as comfortable throwing the slider as often coming off the injury. The curveball has generally produced pretty awesome results, including a massive 52.5% whiff rate in 2021, so there are reasons to be hopeful.
Don't be surprised if Ray gets off to a slow start, especially against the Dodgers. He's 32 and coming off a serious elbow injury, and the Mariners were seemingly so down on him that he was basically salary-dumped this offseason. It may not work out for Ray. But at a time of the season when we're short on difference-making pitchers on the waiver wire, Ray could be one of the last ones to become available in your league. Go check if he's available.
River Ryan, SP, Dodgers (27%) – It's not clear how long the Dodgers plan to keep Ryan around, but I think he's worth a look in deeper leagues, at least. He showed a deep arsenal in his MLB debut Monday against the Giants, throwing six pitches at least six times, and all of them save for the sinker rated out as above-average pitchers per one Stuff model. We've seen guys like Seth Lugo and Gavin Stone have success with deep arsenals like this, and Ryan is obviously in a situation that could maximize his value if he sticks around. With Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow close to returning from the IL, that may not be for long. On the other hand, the Dodgers did DFA James Paxton Monday to make room for Ryan on the active roster, so maybe there is a path to sustained Fantasy relevance.
Alex Cobb, SP, Giants (8%) – Cobb is probably a little behind Ray, but he should be back in the Giants rotation shortly, and he has some upside of his own. Probably not as much as Ray, but Cobb does have a 3.79 ERA over his past three seasons with some strikeout upside when his splitter is working. He has been out all season recovering first from offseason hip surgery and then some shoulder issues, but he recently moved his rehab assignment up to Triple-A, where he tossed five shutout innings in his debut. I think Cobb is below Ray, Clayton Kershaw, and Jeffrey Springs on the IL stash rankings, but if you have a spot to play with and none of them are available, give Cobb a look.
Austin Wells, C, Yankees (15%) – The Yankees had four batted balls of 110 mph or higher Monday against the Rays, and right there alongside Aaron Judge and Juan Soto was Wells, who crushed a 111.2 mph home run, the hardest-hit ball of his career and one of three 100-mph batted balls he generated Monday. It was Wells' fourth homer of July, in what is turning out to be the best month of his young career. Wells has struck out just 17% of the time in July and seems to be tapping into some of the upside that made him a top-100 prospect before the season. Wells made the leap to the majors after just 33 games at Triple-A, but he was a career .260/.370/.476 hitter with 53 homers in 291 minor-league games, so there is some talent here. If you're looking for a No. 2 catcher, he appears to be emerging as the team's top option at the position, too.
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B, Tigers (8%) – Malloy is starting to heat up. He has homered in consecutive games after going deep Monday, and he's up to four homers in just 50 plate appearances in the month of July so far while hitting .279. The knock here is the 28% strikeout rate, and that might always be an issue for Malloy, given how often he swings and misses. But he's patient at the plate and has shown the ability to barrel the ball up to the pull side, and has his xwOBA up to .349 so far in July. That'll play.