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If you could pick a superpower, what would it be? X-ray vision? The ability to fly? Super strength?
What about the ability to predict which Patriots running back will be best for Fantasy?
There were 12 games last season where a New England rusher had 10 or more Fantasy points. All 12 involved LeGarrette Blount -- on three occasions, James White joined him for large games. The year before there were 13 games when a Pats' back had 10-plus points, though that was split between Blount (four), Dion Lewis (four plus once in the same game as Blount), James White (three), Brandon Bolden (once) and Steven Jackson (once).
So yeah, Patriots running backs can be Fantasy rainmakers. But it can be a pain in the rump to try and figure out who will do what when. Last year was easy -- thanks, LeGarrette -- but this year is a conundrum as we head into the second half of the preseason.
We thought Mike Gillislee would be "the guy" when the Patriots gave up a fifth-round pick and $3.5 million guaranteed as part of a two-year deal. But he's spent almost all of training camp on the sideline with a hamstring injury.
Until Tuesday.
Gillislee was back at practice, working in full pads and beginning to stake his claim to the running back throne. Before the injury, he got the first nod at working the goal line in drills. Pair that with his 5.7 rushing average over the past two seasons, and Gillislee could be a souped-up version of Blount.
The Patriots gave Burkhead a bunch of work in their second preseason game against the Texans. Playing exclusively with the starting offense as a first- and second-down rusher, Burkhead showed off his quick cutting ability, especially on a 22-yard touchdown catch. Burkhead ran a killer route and was in perfect sync with Tom Brady, who hit the running back in stride in the middle of the field. Burkhead turned up field and wasn't touched en route to the end zone.
Burkhead figures to be a jack-of-all-trades for the Pats. He can work any down, including special teams, something Bill Belichick mentioned during a training camp radio interview. If Gillislee gets the first crack at a significant role on offense, Burkhead's role will likely depend on how reliable Gillislee proves.
Curiously, the game-winning scorer from Super Bowl LI has played exactly three snaps this preseason -- all last week against the Texans, and all third-down plays. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, but Belichick expressed in that early camp radio interview that White was capable of playing every down and could be called upon to do that.
Lewis started the Pats' first preseason game and worked with the second string against the Texans. He's looked alright, averaging 4.7 yards over 14 carries. But there have been whispers about whether or not he'll even make the Patriots' final roster after injuries knocked him out of nine games each of the last two seasons. Then again, the Patriots are 17-0 in games Lewis has played in in that span. You have to like that.
So who is the one to draft?!
Oh, sure, like anyone knows. Bill Belichick might not even know.
And guess what? He doesn't have to. Not anytime soon. Not that he would tell us even if he did.
Blount was great last year, but the Patriots might have thought they were a little too obvious whenever he was on the field. Of the 602 snaps he played in the regular season and postseason, Blount had 334 carries and eight catches. The Patriots would probably prefer to be a little more unpredictable.
So what if they had four who backs who could all run the ball, catch the ball and protect Brady?
That might be the Patriots' dream -- and the Fantasy community's nightmare.
But one thing is clear: whoever works the goal line should be the best running back for Fantasy. While Lewis and White have done great things for the Patriots, they don't figure to be in the mix there. Burkhead has some bulk to him, but Gillislee is 10 pounds heavier and runs faster to boot.
If you dare wade into the muddy waters of the Patriots' backfield, Gillislee should be first on your wish list. His Average Draft Average has slid over the past couple of weeks to a point where you can draft him after Round 5. That certainly lowers his risk.
Burkhead, meanwhile, is the talk of Fantasy after his 10-touch, 70-yard, one-score performance at Houston. His ADP is quickly rising to roughly 100th overall. It's a fair price to pay for a back who should have some good weeks and has the potential to end up as New England's best back.
Because both expected early-down Patriots are being sought after, James White and Dion Lewis have been relegated to late-round picks. Even with 60 catches last season, White finished outside the top 24, so it's tough to feel good about him unless it's with a late pick.
One draft idea is to get Gillislee and Burkhead together, figuring you can corner the market on the Patriots' top rushing options. Gillislee is a good enough value in Round 6, Burkhead in Round 9. On the surface it makes sense because an owner could corner the market on the Pats' potential goal-line backs.
But given the Patriots' history, there's always the chance you could draft both and pick the wrong one to start every week. Or worse, not draft the rusher who gets the most Fantasy points. If you're risk-averse, don't draft Patriots running backs. If you're feeling like taking a chance, it's definitely not a bad plan.
If only we had the superpower to control Belichick's mind. We'd learn so much.
