Welcome to our 2019 Player Profiles series. We are going through the top 100 in the consensus PPR rankings of Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard to give you the case for and the case against drafting each player. By the time you're done, you'll know everything you need to know for drafting in 2019.
We're starting to see some real upside at this point in the rankings, with a slew of potential star receivers highlighting Nos. 70-61.
70. Mike Williams, WR, LAC
The Case For: Williams is yet another third-year breakout candidate at wide receiver., and it tells you something about his talent that we're considering him a breakout candidate when he's coming off a double-digit touchdown season. The departure of Tyrell Williams should give Mike Williams the chance to become more than just a touchdown-dependent bench receiver. The elder Williams saw 65 targets in 2018 that the younger Williams hopes to gobble up. If he gets the lion's share of those targets and maintains his red-zone prowess, he has top-20 upside. If Keenan Allen gets hurt again, the sky is the limit.
The Case Against: While Tyrell Williams is gone, Hunter Henry is back. This is a team that has historically leaned on the tight end position but only threw the ball 82 times to Antonio Gates and Virgil Green last season. Henry's return will take up enough targets to keep Williams from being reliable on a week-to-week basis.
69. Sammy Watkins, WR, KC
The Case For: He was overshadowed by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but Sammy Watkins actually did some very good things in 2019. He posted a career-best catch rate (72.7%) and reached 100 yards in three games. He started and finished 10 games counting the playoffs and averaged almost 70 yards per game in those contests. That's a 1,000 yard season if he plays 15 games, which he did in 2017. There are also question marks surrounding Hill, who is currently under investigation for another domestic violence issue. Watkins may just be Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 receiver, which would make him a top-12 receiver on a per-game basis.
The Case Against: Watkins did play 15 games in 2017 but it was only the second time in five years he's accomplished that feat. You have to treat him like a bench receiver and count any production he gives you as a bonus.
68. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA
The Case For: The Seahawks invested a first-round pick in Penny last season, so it's hard to believe they don't view him as an important piece of their offense moving forward. This is a team that ran the ball 534 times in 2018, so there is plenty of room for both sides of a committee to have success. The Seahawks showed that in the latter part of last season, giving Penny seven carries per game in the second half. He responded, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. With a full offseason, he should get better in the passing game and have an impact in 2019 in all facets of the game. He may even take the lead role from Carson at some point.
The Case Against: He just doesn't seem to run as hard as Carson, definitely not as violent. The Seahawks are a smash-mouth team now, and Penny did not look like he fit that mold as a rookie. Worse, he couldn't get on the field on passing downs. The Seahawks didn't seem to care that they'd spent a first-round pick on Penny last season, and I don't know why that would change a year later. He's a handcuff, nothing more.
67. Christian Kirk, WR, ARI
The Case For: At Larry Fitzgerald's age (36 in August), there's an excellent chance Kirk is the No. 1 receiver for the Arizona Cardinals in 2019. This should be a much-improved offense that is forced to throw the ball a lot because of game scripts. Also, that's probably the way Kliff Kingsbury wants to run his offense anyway. There's legitimate 130-target upside with Kirk.
The Case Against: Larry Fitzgerald is still there, and he's now joined by both Hakeem Butler, Andy Isabella. and KeeSean Johnson. With those three and David Johnson in the mix, Kirk could be fighting for Fantasy relevance, much less a No. 1 role.
66. Lamar Miller, RB, HOU
The Case For: Miller is viewed as a boring pick, and that makes sense. He's been a top 24 running back for five straight years, but he never really wows you. Still, as early as running backs go off the board, there's something enticing about finding a starting running back in the fifth or sixth round. A full season with Deshaun Watson really helped Miller's efficiency (4.6 YPC) despite the Texans' offensive line woes. If they can make improvements there and Miller can stay healthy, he should give us a sixth straight season as a starting option for a fraction of the cost.
The Case Against: The Texans would really like for someone else to take this job, and D'Onta Foreman is now another year removed from his Achilles tear. Also, Miller was not very involved in the passing game last year and that won't likely change with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee available for Watson.
65. Dante Pettis, WR, SF
The Case For: Pettis is the No. 1 WR on a team with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays and Jimmy Garoppolo throwing the football. In his final five games of his rookie season, Pettis caught 20 passes for 359 yards and scored four touchdowns. He should only get better in his second year.
The Case Against: George Kittle is actually the No. 1 receiver on this team, and it's not close. Even during that hot finish, Pettis only averaged six targets per game. If his efficiency dips at all (it probably will) that won't be enough work to justify starting him most weeks. He also has more competition with the addition of Deebo Samuel and jalen Hurd. This team looks like it wants a committee at every position, which will make it hard for Pettis to reach his upside.
64. D.J. Moore, WR, CAR
The Case For: Moore showed flashes in his rookie year that he may just be worth the first-round pick the Panthers spent on him. He was the first Panthers receiver to catch at least 67 percent of his targets and average 14 yards per reception since Cam Newton became the quarterback. Moore should lead the Panthers' receivers in targets once again, pushing over 100 in 2019.
The Case Against: You have to start with questions about Cam Newton's shoulder. Things got really bad for Moore and the Panthers passing game down the stretch, and we don't know for sure that Newton will be 100% to start the season. There's also a target question even if Newton is right. We know Christian McCaffrey will get at least 20% of the team's targets and Greg Olsen is coming back as well. Curtis Samuel was right there with Moore in 2018. If Moore can't distinguish himself from Samuel, it could be another up-and-down season.
63. Sony Michel, RB, NE
The Case For: It took a little while for Michel to get going, but once he did he was nearly unstoppable. In his final 14 games (including the playoffs), Michel ran for 1,183 yards and scored 12 touchdowns on the ground. For most of that time he was the feature back in New England, averaging 18 carries per game. The Patriots went run-heavy in the playoffs, and it paid off with another Super Bowl ring. Considering the loss of Rob Gronkowski and their lack of movement on adding another quality receiver, that sure seems like the plan again. As long as Michel can stay healthy, he could be a first-round pick by the time 2020 rolls around.
The Case Against: Michel had another procedure on his knee this offseason while Damien Harris received first-team snaps at OTAs. That's not to say that Michel is in danger of losing his job to Harris, but it does add more confusion to a Bill Belichick offense. Also in PPR, Michel's value has to take a big hit. In more than half of the games he played last season, he didn't catch a single pass. His season-high was two receptions in a game, and he only did that once. Joe Mixon was the only top-10 running back in 2018 who caught fewer than 50 passes, and he caught 43 in 14 games. With James White, Rex Burkhead and Harris all in the stable it's hard to count on Michel as a feature back.
62. Tevin Coleman, RB, SF
The Case For: Coleman moved out of Devonte Freeman's shadow in the offseason and reunited with Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco running backs were remarkably productive in 2018 with Matt Breida, Alfred Morris, Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert combining for 2,226 yards. Coleman is more talented than all of them.
The Case Against: Those four running backs were very productive, but they also combined for 417 touches. Coleman may only get half that many. There's also another name that wasn't mentioned — Jerick McKinnon. He returns this year, and this looks very much like one a three-headed committee with currently undefined roles. Don't draft the most expensive of the three.
61. Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
The Case For: If you play in a four-point per pass touchdown league, you should definitely consider making Watson your quarterback. He's the rare quarterback who can help you with his legs but still puts up very good passing numbers. If the offensive line is better and his trio of young receivers stays healthy, Watson could challenge for No. 1 overall in this format.
The Case Against: The offensive line was terrible in 2018, and Watson runs so much that you have to be worried about another injury. Also, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee have given us no reason to believe they'll both be able to stay healthy, so that upside may not be realistic.
