The Bears had a chance to move on from Justin Fields when they earned the No. 1 pick, but they showed their confidence in Fields by trading it away. They're going to give Fields a real opportunity to prove he can be a franchise QB, and that's a very exciting possibility for Fantasy players.
2022 review
Record: 3-14 (32)
PPG: 19.2 (23)
YPG: 307.8 (28)
Pass YPG: 130.5 (32)
Rush YPG: 177.3 (1)
PAPG: 22.2 (32)
RAPG: 32.8 (2)
2022 Fantasy finishes
QB: Justin Fields QB9
RB: David Montgomery* RB21, Khalil Herbert RB37
WR: Darnell Mooney WR73, Chase Claypool WR81
TE: Cole Kmet TE7
*No longer with team
Number to know: 26%
That's the share of the Bears' dropbacks that didn't end in a pass attempt, by far the highest rate in the league. I mean, it wasn't even close; The Giants had the second-highest share at 17.9%. The Bears offense was very run-heavy, yes, with the second-highest share of their offensive plays as designed runs, but that's not the entire reason they were last in the NFL in pass attempts at 377. It's because Justin Fields scrambled or was sacked on more than one-quarter of his dropbacks, a massive number.
The decision to go out and get D.J. Moore is a good indicator that the Bears are planning on being more pass-heavy this season. However, as long as Fields is scrambling and getting sacked at that rate, this is always going to be a super-low volume pass offense, and it's something to keep in mind if you're projecting a D.J. Moore breakout. I'm not saying that breakout can't happen, but it's going to be tough.
2023 offseason
Draft picks
1. (10) Darnell Wright, OL
2. (53) Gervon Dexter Sr., DL
2. (56) Tyrique Stevenson, CB
3. (64) Zacch Pickens, DL
4. (115) Roschon Johnson, RB
4. (133) Tyler Scott, WR
5. (148) Noah Sewell, LB
5. (165) Terell Smith, DB
7. (218) Travis Bell, DL
7. (258) Kendall Williamson, SAF
Additions
WR D.J. Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, LB T.J. Edwards, G Nate Davis, RB D'Onta Foreman, TE Robert Tonyan
Key departures
RB David Montgomery, LB Nicholas Morrow
Available opportunity
201 RB carries, 40 RB targets, 66 WR targets, 12 TE targets
Rankings and projections
| Award |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Khalil Herbert | 31 | 29 | 37 | 31 |
| Roschon Johnson | 42 | 45 | 52 | 59 |
| D'Onte Foreman | 54 | 50 | 53 | 48 |
| D.J. Moore | 20 | 18 | 16 | 24 |
| Darnell Mooney | NR | NR | 48 | NR |
| Cole Kmet | 18 | 18 | 14 | 17 |
Chris Towers' projections
| QB | Justin Fields | PA: 461, YD: 3225, TD: 21, INT: 12; RUSH -- ATT: 149, YD: 820, TD: 8 |
| RB | D'Onta Foreman | CAR: 124, YD: 497, TD: 5; TAR: 23, REC: 18, YD: 138, TD: 1 |
| RB | Khalil Herbert | CAR: 174, YD: 765, TD: 5; TAR: 37, REC: 30, YD: 236, TD: 1 |
| WR | Roschon Johnson | CAR: 50, YD: 240, TD: 2; TAR: 9, REC: 7, YD: 59 |
| WR | D.J. Moore | TAR: 124, REC: 75, YD: 985, TD: 6 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | TAR: 83, REC: 54, YD: 669, TD: 4 |
| WR | Chase Claypool | TAR: 78, REC: 48, YD: 550, TD: 4 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | TAR: 74, REC: 52, YD: 568, TD: 3 |
Biggest question
Can Justin Fields make a leap as a passer?
It's hard to be more productive as a runner than Fields was last season, as he finished with the second most yards by a QB ever. He was an excellent Fantasy QB as a result, putting up 25-plus Fantasy points in six of his final nine games. Now, with D.J. Moore added and a full season from Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, he has to take a step forward as a passer. If he does, he's a top-five QB for Fantasy and the long-term answer for the Bears. If not, well, they might be looking for their franchise QB again next offseason.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
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None of the three Bears running backs has an ADP inside of the top 100 right now, so you could make a case for any of them as a sleeper. Of course, if all three are playing a role this season, it's unlikely any of them makes much of an impact for Fantasy, even at a cheap price. So, I'll go with the mystery box of the group, who comes to the Bears after primarily backing Bijan Robinson up in college. Johnson was productive when he had the opportunity and has three-down skills and size, despite never really getting the chance to be that guy. I'd bet on Herbert and Foreman opening the season at the top of the depth chart, but it'll only take one injury for Johnson to get an opportunity, and he might be talented enough to run away with it if it comes. You can take him with one of your last few picks and move on after a few weeks if it doesn't pan out; if it does, he could have a ton of value.
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Fields is the free space on the Breakouts Bingo card. Every breakouts column is going to feature him, and for good reason – he has as much upside as a runner as any QB in NFL history and just added a legit No. 1 receiver. There are fair questions about whether that will be enough for this offense to make a legitimate leap and for the Bears to buy into Fields as the long-term answer at the QB position, but Fields was already a must-start Fantasy QB without being a productive passer. If he takes even a small step forward in that regard, it'll be hard for him to not be a top-five QB.
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I hope I'm wrong, because I've been a huge Moore fan for a long time. I think he's a legitimate top-12 WR in the NFL and will make this offense much better. I'm just not sure he's going to benefit from it enough to live up to expectations for Fantasy. The Bears are still going to be pretty run-heavy, and Fields' proclivity for scrambling (and his inability to avoid sacks) means there are still going to be plenty of "wasted" dropbacks. I don't mind betting on Moore making this offense better; I just think it makes more sense to put that bet on Fields taking a big step forward rather than on Moore being a must-start Fantasy wide receiver.
