The ACC takes a beating amongst most BCS conferences, and on paper, 2011 doesn't figure to be much better. Star power (Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, Christian Ponder, Leonard Hankerson) departs and there are tons of holes to fill across the conference. Need proof? Four of the league's top five quarterbacks from a year ago are gone, as are three of the top five rushers and receivers. Yikes.
We could be looking at an awfully sloppy September as we sort out who will emerge. The good news is that someone has to do something. So there are plenty of high-upside newcomers that are worth gambling on in the later rounds of your Fantasy draft. Guess right, and you will be handsomely rewarded. Guess wrong, and you'll probably have time to play the waiver wire and get a second chance. And at worst, you can look for some solid defensive statistics across the league.
Boston College
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 109th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 19th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/7
Significant Losses: LB
Mark Herzlich
Newcomer of Note: Offensive coordinator Kevin
Rogers. The former Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks coach is well known
for his work with signal callers and should further assist in sophomore Chase Rettig's development. Four-star tight end Brian Miller also has
a chance to emerge down the road..
2011 Thoughts: To be frank, this offense has nowhere to go but up. And that's simply a rule of numbers, let alone talent. You've got a budding quarterback in Rettig, the most consistent, if not best running back in the conference in Montel Harris, and the return of what should be the Eagles' best receiver in Colin Larmond. Larmond is the key here. He's averaged 20.4 yards per catch in two seasons before blowing out his knee prior to last year. At 6-3, he's more than just a field stretcher.
Final Analysis: To sit here and call last year's 109th ranked offense a juggernaut would be insane. But you have to love the upside here. Rettig will grow as a passer, and last year's leading receiver, sophomore Bobby Swigert, will take some heat off of Larmond. Mix in tight end Chris Pantale and backup running back Andre Williams, and the makings for excitement are in place. Outside of Harris, all BC players will come at bargain basement prices and should give Fantasy owners nice sleeper potential.
Clemson
2010 Record: 6-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 86th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 13th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/7
Significant Losses: QB
Kyle Parker, RB Jamie Harper
Newcomer of Note: Where do we
begin? New offensive coordinator Chad Morris brings his spread offense
from Tulsa, and he welcomes a plethora of new toys. Five-star running
back Mike Bellamy and five-star wide receiver Sammy Watkins headline a
class that also includes four-star wide receivers Martavis Bryant and Charone Peake. Three-star quarterbacks Cole Stoudt and Tony McNeal will
battle for the backup spot.
2011 Thoughts: We just mentioned at least four rookies who should contribute, which makes this one of the toughest offenses on which to bet the house. Andre Ellington is one of the most dynamic running backs in the ACC. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins averaged 88 yards per game in 2010 and scored three times in his final five contests, proving he can be a go-to option. And tight end Dwayne Allen should be a decent safety valve for the lynchpin of this offense.
Final Analysis: The big question remains is which quarterback Tajh Boyd will develop into? If you drafted a dynasty ACC signal caller two years ago based on stars, Boyd left your board awfully early. But you are still waiting to see a glimpse of his potential. He's got dual-threat abilities, and Clemson fans probably wish he had more of an opportunity when Kyle Parker's 2010 season went south. But a lack of any development was highlighted by an 8-for-24 spring game performance. Boyd has options all over the field, and he is the final nail that can build this house or the final nail in coach Dabo Swinney's future. The offense will rank higher than last year, but with new faces across the board and a tough schedule, 2012 may be a better year to put stock in any Clemson player not named Ellington.
Duke
2010 Record: 3-9
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 75th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 109th
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/6
Significant Losses: WR
Austin Kelly
Newcomer of Note: Duke recruits? The Blue Devils
bring in three wide receivers and a tight end in the Class of 2011.
That's it from skill positions. Of those, wide receiver Blair Holliday
has the best size/speed ratio, but is at least a year away from being on
the field.
2011 Thoughts: This isn't the year Duke moves up a tier in the ACC. How's that for a thought? By now, it's becoming old hat in Durham, N.C. Every offseason we read about this finally being the year Duke wins six games and makes a bowl. And yes, again, it's possible. The talent at the skill positions certainly isn't the problem. Quarterback Sean Renfree really came on in the second half of 2010. His 14-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn't appealing, but he only tossed three of those picks in the final six contests. Wide receivers Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner may be the best tandem in the ACC. Varner is a year removed from a 1,047-yard season, and Vernon fell just short of the century mark in 2010. The backfield will feature Desmond Scott, with speedster Josh Snead as a complement.
Final Analysis: From a Fantasy perspective we love the upside of the passing game here. Renfree should be better, there are two dynamic receivers and we haven't mentioned tight end Cooper Heflet. Never heard of Heflet? Click his name and look at his second half in 2010. Backup quarterback Brandon Connette is a rushing threat who will see snaps, and that makes him the top backup worth owning in ACC circles. And because the Blue Devils figure to play from behind often, we know passing opportunities won't be scarce. Rushing attempts will be, however, so don't expect Scott to be rosterable. In summation -- Duke players are draftable and there is good value here. Just curb your expectations because it is still Duke.
Florida State
2010 Record: 10-4
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 33rd
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 20th
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/9
Significant Losses: QB
Christian Ponder
Newcomer of Note: Five-star running back
James Wilder, Jr. may end up at linebacker, which makes four-star signee Devonta Freeman a name you can't forget about. Wide receivers Kelvin
Benjamin and Rashad Greene are very, very good, but will have to wait
their respective turns.
2011 Thoughts: It's time to name drop because the 'Noles have too many options at their skill positions to count. Running backs Chris Thompson, Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas had five 100-yard games between them. Bert Reed leads four returning wideouts who all had at least 31 grabs and two scores. It's a terrific problem for head coach Jimbo Fisher and "new" quarterback E.J. Manuel to have. But it's a terrible problem for a Fantasy owner.
Final Analysis: The Seminoles have a lot of depth and it just seems like these guys have all been here forever. Florida State will be very, very good in 2011 on both sides of the ball. But the defense and quarterback position are the only two positions that figure to offer consistent Fantasy value because of said depth. With four to five running backs capable and a similar number of receivers for Manuel to toss it to, it's best to sit back and watch the FSU season unfold rather than force yourself to have rooting interest.
Georgia Tech
2010 Record: 6-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 71st
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 57th
Base Offense: Triple-option
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/5
Significant Losses: QB
Joshua Nesbitt, RB Anthony Allen
Newcomer of Note: Quarterback
Vad Lee looks like the perfect fit for the triple-option, and he will
get a chance to compete for the starting job in August. And any time a
Yellow Jacket receiver comes in at 6-foot-6, we take notice. This year's
edition is Jeff Greene.
2011 Thoughts: Looking at the significant losses list, you can see trouble and opportunity in Atlanta. This season will be the year where we can finally answer whether it's the players or head coach Paul Johnson's system that make things go for Tech. Nesbitt has been the heart and soul of the offense for three seasons, rushing for at least 690 yards and seven scores each time. Allen replaced Jonathan Dwyer at B-back in 2010, and he became the third straight back to gain over 1,300 yards for the Jackets. You'll notice I'm mentioning the past a lot because there are a lot of questions in Atlanta right now around this Yellow Jackets offense. Tevin Washington exited the spring atop the quarterback depth chart, but did so after an unceremonious spring. Synjyn Days and Lee will get every chance to unseat Washington, who played admirably last season after Nesbitt's injury and threw the ball respectably despite his dismal spring.
While we expect Washington to take the first snaps this fall, we truthfully have no clue to who he will hand the football. If you do, and he makes it through 12 games, you've already read about the virtual guarantee of production. Preston Lyons enters summer as the starting B-back. He'll face stiff competition from Charles Perkins and Richard Watson, and this reeks of a yearlong committee. Roddy Jones returns at one A-back position, and he'll be flanked by Orwin Smith on the other side. Smith has the size to play B-back and is probably the best back in Atlanta. Unfortunately, the coach seems to disagree.
Final Analysis: If you buy into the system, take a chance here on Washington or a running back in the last round of your draft. Otherwise, add plenty of Yellow Jackets to your watch list and let's see how this shakes out during the first month of the year. As with most teams in the ACC there is potential here. We wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't mention wide receiver Stephen Hill, who struggled with drops last year. He isn't going to go for 700 yards, and he won't score more than five times, but he could be a decent buy in the right situation.
Maryland
2010 Record: 9-4
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 29th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 38th
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/7
Significant Losses: WR
Torrey Smith, RB Da'Rel Scott
Newcomer of Note: Redshirt
freshman Adrian Coxson, who transferred
from Florida shortly after arriving in Gainesville, Fla., is a name that
has probably been forgotten about by recruiting fanatics who lost
patience.
2011 Thoughts: In a league with new quarterbacks galore, it's exciting to put faith in sophomore Danny O'Brien. He's the best returning quarterback in the ACC. Scott's departure from the backfield is probably as much of a blessing as it is a curse. While Davin Meggett is the starter and should be drafted as such, D.J. Adams is a player worth watching. Don't let his 3.6 yards per carry fool you. He scored 11 times on just 67 carries last season. That's a ridiculous average, and he could see an increase in his carries and yardage. He won't score as often, but don't expect that number to be cut in half either.
Final Analysis: With O'Brien being a stable, if not potentially spectacular quarterback, and one less back to worry about there's the makings of Fantasy upside in College Park, Md. Now, if only we knew who replaces wide receiver Torrey Smith?
Miami (Fla.)
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 66th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 27th
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/7
Significant Losses: WR
Leonard Hankerson, RB Damien Berry, RB Graig Cooper, RB Storm Johnson
Newcomer
of Note: The incoming talent isn't bad for a team in transition,
with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett,
athlete Kevin Grooms, who will start at running back thanks to Storm Johnson's departure and kicker Matt Goudis have the best
chances for immediate impact.
2011 Thoughts: It's put up or shut up time for what was supposed to be former head coach Randy Shannon's national title recruiting class. Three years ago, quarterback Jacory Harris headlined a freshman class loaded with high school teammates and fellow South Floridians, who were supposed to bring the U back to prominence. Now mostly seniors, only wide receivers Travis Benjamin and LaRon Byrd appear assured of a starting position. If you don't believe guys can make a leap in their final year, then you probably don't need to draft anyone involved with throwing or catching in Coral Gables, Fla.
The running game is another story, however. Last season's Hurricanes had too many options in the backfield. Now, thanks to lots of attrition, the 'Canes may have the best 1-2 punch in the ACC. Lamar Miller is a flat out game changer and should break out this season. He can hit the hole in a blink and be the big play back Miami has been missing for some time. And "backup" Mike James is no slouch either. These guys are both about the same size and run at about the same speed, but the perception is that they are completely different backs. That's not reality, but what is reality is both will be Fantasy assets in 2011. And they'll be used extensively in the passing game as well.
Final Analysis: The backfield picture is clear. And that's where your Fantasy attention goes. No questions asked -- draft Miller and James.
Outside of that, we have no idea if Harris will start, and if he does, will he throw to the green and orange or the other team? Stephen Morris looked like the future under center, but failing to beat out Harris in the spring doesn't instill much confidence. Miami also has at least two freshmen and Memphis transfer Ryan Williams waiting in the wings for 2012, so Morris' stock as a keeper isn't high.
Out wide there is equal ambiguity. Benjamin is solid, but unspectacular. We've run out of patience waiting for Byrd to develop into a stud. Aldarius Johnson is not the answer. Tommy Streeter is drawing lots of recognition as a deep sleeper, but remember that he only had one catch last season. An under-the-radar sleeper to catch passes is Allen Hurns.
Al Golden and company bring a new attitude to Miami. We expect him to lean heavily on his backs and experienced offensive line in attempt to limit mistakes elsewhere.
North Carolina
2010 Record: 8-5
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 75th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 44th
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 5/5
Significant Losses: QB
T.J. Yates, RB Johnny White, RB Shaun Draughn, RB Anthony Elzy, TE Zach
Pianalto
Newcomer of Note: Quarterback Marquis Williams is the offensive headliner. The 6-3, 220-pound early
enrollee oozes dual-threat potential. But he may redshirt if Bryn Renner develops. Running back Romar Morris is a name to monitor
this fall, but fellow backfield mate Travis Riley
made noise this spring. One of these two will see some carries.
2011 Thoughts: North Carolina has a new signal caller, a mess in the backfield, and lots of depth and experience at wide receiver. Renner is a talent who many thought could overtake Yates a season ago. Dwight Jones leads a list of talented wideouts that includes upperclassmen Erik Highsmith, Jheranie Boyd and redshirt sophomore Joshua Adams.
Final Analysis: Last season proved that coach Butch Davis likes running backs and will make them productive as rushers and receivers, and use one guy as his option if at all possible.
Ryan Houston is the obvious solution here. After sitting out last season for suspension and redshirt reasons, you have to figure the monstrous back is chomping at the bit to find pay dirt. He's scored 17 times in his last two seasons and shouldn't have a problem matching that average this year. With consistent touches, he's a huge upside sleeper.
Redshirt frosh Giovanni Bernard is the second forgotten name here. He blew out his knee early in 2010, but is a flashy, former four-star recruit from South Florida. He's a great change of pace to Houston's brute force.
Either of these two can and probably will emerge. The aforementioned rookies, as well as Hunter Furr, also factor in here. UNC had three different backs rush for 100 yards in a game last year. Expect at least two different to do so in 2011.
North Carolina State
2010 Record: 9-4
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 32nd
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 29th
Base Offense: Split back
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/8
Significant Losses: QB
Russell Wilson, WR Owen Spencer, WR Jarvis Williams
Newcomer of
Note: If you are a stars guy with regards to recruiting, stop
reading here. Wide receiver Hakeem Flowers might have the most potential
and is at a position of need.
2011 Thoughts: Replacing Wilson under center isn't an easy task. It's even more challenging when your head coach forces Wilson out the door and pins his future on your shoulders. Mike Glennon isn't Wilson. Hopefully, he is also not his brother (former Hokie Sean Glennon). He's got a huge arm, but isn't nearly as mobile as the man he is replacing. He also has no proven wide receivers. T.J. Graham is a track guy and the most logical choice for success. Jay Smith is penciled in to start opposite of Graham. Have any of you heard of these two? If you said no, you'll understand that tight end George Bryan will be a top Fantasy tight end. We love running back Mustafa Greene, but advise a wait-and-see approach. He led the team in rushing as a rookie, but only started once.
Final Analysis: Greene and Glennon are the two names to watch. Each player has weaknesses, but each have enough upside to be big time Fantasy factors. You can do much, much worse than drafting these two as upside backups.
Virginia
2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 75th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 70th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/7
Significant Losses: QB
Marc Verica, RB Keith Payne, WR Dontrelle Inman
Newcomer of Note: Quarterback
David Watford is one of four competing
for the starting job in August. He could easily win it and he could just
as easily redshirt. We love his long-term potential. Running back
Clifton Richardson will compete for backup carries with redshirt frosh Kevin Parks.
2011 Thoughts: There is cautious optimism in Charlottesville, Va., but this team is at least another season away from truly making noise in the conference and in Fantasy circles. The biggest name here is running back Perry Jones. The junior averaged 4.7 yards per carry in 2010, but only scored once. Here lies the problem: At 5-8, 185 pounds, Jones is built just like the rookies noted above. None of them is capable of replacing Payne's 14 scores from a year ago. Jones is a solid bet for 800 yards, but don't expect more than five touchdowns.
Kris Burd returns and hopes to build on a solid 799-yard, five-score year. He needs a quarterback to emerge, but those numbers are certainly duplicable. Also keep tabs on Tim Smith. He missed most of 2010 due to injury, but will be the Cavs' go-to receiver a year from now, and when healthy, has the speed to be relevant now.
Final Analysis: Find me a quarterback. In head coach Mike London's second season, he exited spring practice with two guys atop the depth chart. Mike Rocco and Ross Metheny will get first cracks in August, while Michael Strauss and David Watford will continue to battle. It's clearly tough to take a flier on a Virginia quarterback, and the unsettling situation makes it tough to rely on Virginia receivers in Fantasy as well.
Virginia Tech
2010 Record: 11-3
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 21st
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 27th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/7
Significant Losses: QB
Tyrod Taylor, RB Ryan Williams, RB Darren Evans, TE Andre Smith
Newcomer
of Note: Running back Michael Holmes
was one of the top high school players in Virginia before the Hokies
signed him this past February. Junior David Wilson is probably going to be the showstopper out of the
backfield in 2011 for Virginia Tech, but you know how much coach Frank
Beamer likes to run the football, so Holmes could be in the mix for
carries this fall. The Hokie offense won't feature many true freshmen,
but they did lose 25 rushing touchdowns, and the presumed backup running
back -- Tony Gregory -- is coming off
knee surgery.
2011 Thoughts: Wilson is an absolute stud and figures to touch the ball as often as he can handle. Conservatively, you can give Wilson 10-12 touchdowns. Merriam-Webster may consider changing the spelling of beast to Wilson by Thanksgiving.
New quarterback Logan Thomas is a former four-star tight end recruit, and he still looks like one. There have been a few Cam Newton comparisons, and while that is ludicrous, Thomas' upside makes him a high-end backup in all leagues.
Final Analysis: Virginia Tech's brand usually doesn't involve a high-octane offense. But this unit is loaded, so anything can happen. The wide receiving corps might be the deepest in the ACC outside of Florida State. The Hokies haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver in forever, but Jarrett Boykin is clearly a threat to end that drought. Marcus Davis is a keeper to remember, and Danny Coale will double as a punter unless someone emerges this fall.
And don't forget about the changing of the guard at offensive coordinator. Gone is the most unimaginative play caller ever -- Bryan Stinespring. This lends even more optimism for a loaded squad.
Wake Forest
2010 Record: 3-9
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 90th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 110th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/8
Significant Losses: WR
Devon Brown, WR Marshall Williams, RB Josh Adams, QB Skylar Jones
Newcomer
of Note: Quarterback Kevin Sousa is the top recruit, but he doesn't
have a clear path to snaps. Fellow Floridian, running back DeAndre
Martin, may be too big (6-3) to remain in the backfield.
2011 Thoughts: It can't be worse than 2010. Short of a few big runs from Josh Harris there was absolutely nothing to remember about last year's Wake Forest squad. You have to expect some growth from sophomore quarterback Tanner Price, who has decent athleticism. Harris is the star here, however. Initially, we were scared off by head coach Jim Grobe's history with talented young backs. But the difference here is Harris doesn't have the depth behind him some of Wake's previous backs did. He should make a leap into the upper tier of ACC backs.
Final Analysis: Harris is a decent bye-week replacement. Otherwise, pass over this team without losing sleep. If you need a deep, deep sleeper, keep your eye on wide receiver Michael Campanaro. He'll touch the ball in a variety of ways.
