The Big Ten will see many changes heading into 2011, most notably the addition of the Nebraska Cornhuskers from the Big 12, which has resulted in two divisions and the conference's first ever championship game.
Ohio State is going through team changes that have dominated the news of college football, and has the Buckeyes currently embattled in an NCAA investigation that resulted in the resignation of Head Coach Jim Tressel, the suspensions of running back Daniel Herron, wide receiver DeVier Posey, and more importantly, quarterback Terrelle Pryor. While Herron and Posey will return in week six, Pryor has opted for the NFL supplemental draft (assuming there is one).
The conference still boasts plenty of fantasy talent, especially at quarterback with the likes of Michigan's Denard Robinson, Dan Persa (Northwestern), Nathan Scheelhaase (Illinois), Russell Wilson (Wisconsin via NC State), and Taylor Martinez (Nebraska). That is a pretty impressive list.
As usual, Wisconsin returns some of the top running backs in Montee Ball and James White, but look for Iowa's Marcus Coker to make a run at joining those Badgers atop the 2011 Big Ten rushing statistics.
The "unknown" position is wide receiver. Will Damarlo Belcher step up and be the new leader of the Big Ten, or will Roy Roundtree explode in his senior season and live up to the #1 Michigan jersey he was awarded last year?
There are plenty of uncertainties, but I do know it's going to be a lot of fun to watch things develop.
Legends Division
Nebraska
2010 Record: 10-4
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 38th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 9th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 6 Offense, 6 Defense
Significant losses: Running
back Roy Helu, wide receiver Niles Paul
Newcomer of Note:
Running back Aaron Green could
immediately find himself spelling Rex Burkhead.
2011 Thoughts: Nebraska lost Roy Helu, but Rex Burkhead ran for 951 yards and is poised to take the lead role. Taylor Martinez begins his second year and brings another dual-threat quarterback to the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have to absorb the loss of wide receiver Niles Paul, but this should not be a big concern. Jamal Turner moved from quarterback to receiver this spring and was outstanding.
Final Analysis: Martinez and Burkhead lead the Huskers fantasy attack, and both should push 1,000-yard rushing totals in 2011. Though Nebraska isn't a place to look for wide receiver help, do keep an eye on Turner's development.
Michigan State
2010 Record: 11-2
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 47th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 39th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters : 6 Offense, 6 Defense
Significant losses:
Wide receiver Mark Dell, TE Charlie Gantt, OC Don Treadwell
Newcomer
of Note: Watch true freshman WR Juwan Caesar,
a big target. Also keep an eye on RS Frosh WR Tony Lippett, who had a very impressive spring and could see time on
both sides of the ball.
2011 Thoughts: The Spartans return a ton of skill position players from 2010 and should continue to improve on offense. Senior quarterback Kirk Cousins will captain the attack with star running back Edwin Baker set to try and improve on his 1,201 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. While Mark Dell is gone, B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and Keith Nichol return to give stability at the receiver position, and young Bennie Fowler looks like a rising star.
Final Analysis: Cousins isn't going to dominate in fantasy because of the offense, but he will once again be a solid spot starter in BCS leagues. The real gem will be Baker, who established himself as a threat in 2010 and will continue to do so. Cunningham is a serviceable receiver who should match or exceed his 2010 output.
Iowa
2010 Record: 8-5
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 50th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 7th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters: 5 Offense, 4 Defense
Significant losses: Running
back Adam Robinson, quarterback Ricky Stanzi, wide receiver Derrell
Johnson-Koulianos
Newcomer of Note: Running back Rodney Coe
was expected to be this guy, but he's opted to go JUCO for the 2011
season. Mika'il McCall is another running back signee who could see the
field early.
2011 Thoughts: Ricky Stanzi is off to the NFL, and it's now James Vandenberg who is expected to be under center for the Hawkeyes, however John Wienke is still in the running. Whoever the quarterback is, he will be fortunate to have Marcus Coker to hand the ball to with regularity. Marvin McNutt returns at wide receiver, but the reliable Koulianos will take time to replace. Keenan Davis should see an expanded role at receiver but must overcome his case of the "dropsies."
Final Analysis: Marcus Coker is a star in the making, and should be your number one choice on the Iowa football team. McNutt was very good in 2010 and should continue to be an effective option, but it may take a few games while the new quarterback settles in. In other words, expect a heavy dose of Coker.
Northwestern
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 63rd
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 77th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters: 9 Offense, 7 Defense
Significant losses: WR
Sidney Stewart (39-437-0) is it.
Newcomer of Note: Christian Jones is a talented receiver from Texas who could see immediate
playing time.
2011 Thoughts: Northwestern should be an offensive force in 2011, returning nine starters on offense, including the dangerous quarterback Dan Persa. Persa has his valuable wide receiver Jeremy Ebert (eight touchdowns, 953 yards receiving) back, as well as running back Mike Trumpy, who led all NU running backs with 116 rushing attempts last year.
Final Analysis: You'll want to draft Ebert and Persa in this offense. Ebert will look to improve on his eight touchdowns from 2010, while Persa will be the focal point of the offense as both a runner and a thrower. Running back is still not a solid option for your squad on a weekly basis, but they do have a potential playmaker in running back Adonis Smith, who has yet to be featured.
Michigan
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 25th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 107th
Base Offense: Pro Set
Returning
Starters: 9 Offense, 7 Defense
Significant losses: Rich
Rodriguez
Newcomers of Note: Running back Justice Hayes, tight End Chris Barnett,
and Coach Brady Hoke. Also, keep close eye on RB Thomas Rawls, who may be the most Big Ten-ready of all incoming backs.
2011 Thoughts: Michigan was all Denard Robinson, all the time in 2010, but that is set to change a bit. While Robinson will still be a dangerous dual-threat weapon, the Wolverines will try to run the ball more traditionally in 2011, and Stephen Hopkins is a back to keep your eye on. Roy Roundtree returns at wide receiver, where he posted career high numbers last year. Provided Darryl Stonum can fulfill his team obligations stemming from a second alcohol + driving-related arrest, then he becomes a key component as well.
Final Analysis: It's hard to imagine Robinson duplicating the monster year he had in 2010 (1,702 rush, 2,570 pass, 32 total touchdowns), but new HC Brady Hoke and OC Al Borges will continue to use him where he's most effective, in the open field. Keep an eye on Hopkins as a potential break-out player, but he has competition with Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw and the aforementioned Mr. Rawls. Whoever the running back is, expect him to see a bigger load this season to keep Denard fresh and the defense off the field.
Minnesota
2010 Record: 3-9
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 89th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 98th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
Significant losses: Quarterback
Adam Weber
Newcomers of Note: Running back Lamonte Edwards, wide receiver Marcus Jones
2011 Thoughts: Adam Weber's tenure is over, but Minnesota finally puts MarQueis Gray at quarterback where, he can cause havoc. Gray played primarily at wide receiver in 2010, posting 587 yards and five touchdowns. He will give the Gophers a dual (or triple, if you will) threat option that should make the offense more exciting.
Final Analysis: Gray is a draft day option simply for his potential to be a diamond in the rough. The Gophers may make a change at running back and go with the redshirt freshman, Lamonte Edwards, who came highly-regarded to Minnesota in 2010. Da'Jon McKnight returns at receiver and is a solid Big Ten league and BCS spot starter, although Brandon Green could take some of his production.
Leaders Division
Ohio State
2009 Record: 12-1
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 11th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 5th
Base Offense: Pro Set
with Spread variation
Returning Starters: 7 Offense, 4 Defense
Significant
losses: Quarterback Terrelle Pryor, wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher
Newcomer
of Note: Quarterback Braxton Miller
is going to wow with his explosive ability.
2011 Thoughts: Jim Tressel is gone, but interim coach Luke Fickell has kept the coaching staff intact. Ohio State still faces 5-game suspensions from key offensive players, including running back Daniel Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey, but rather than accept his punishment, Pryor bolted for the NFL, opening the door for incoming freshman quarterback Braxton Miller to compete for the starting job.
Final Analysis: The offense will take a serious step back early in the 2011 season. Miller will compete at quarterback with Joe Bauserman (26 years old) and redshirt freshman Taylor Graham. At running back, the Buckeyes are hoping Roderick Smith emerges to carry the early load, and if he does it could be hard for Herron to mix back in. DeVier Posey will be a nice free agent addition in the second half of the season, and the Buckeyes return tight end Jake Stoneburner, who should see plenty of action in what could be a scaled down offense. Also keep an eye on massive tight end Reid Fragel; he's not a receiving threat in the Stoneburner mold, but he could emerge as a touchdown vulture.
Wisconsin
2010 Record: 11-2
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 5th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 25th
Base Offense: Power I
Returning
Starters: 4 Offense, 7 Defense
Significant losses:
Quarterback Scott Tolzien, running back John Clay, tight end Lance
Kendricks
Newcomer of Note: Quarterback Russell Wilson may be the most significant newcomer in the country.
2011 Thoughts: Former North Carolina State star quarterback Wilson has transferred to Wisconsin, giving them a deadly offensive attack. The Badgers already return two 1,000-yard rushers in Montee Ball and James White, and adding Wilson creates a major headache for any team in the Big Ten.
Final Analysis: Wilson will be an interesting draft day target. How much he will run or throw with the stable of backs behind him remains to be seen, but he is an upgrade over Tolzien from a fantasy perspective. Wide receiver Nick Toon's stock improves with the addition of Wilson, while slightly downgrading Ball and White (but not by much). There will be plenty of fantasy production from the Badgers in 2011.
Penn State
2009 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 81st
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 49th
Base Offense: Spread
variation
Significant losses: Running back Evan Royster,
kicker Colin Wagner
Newcomer of Note: Wide receiver Bill
Belton is a New Jersey burner capable of playing an immediate role.
Returning
Starters: 6 Offense, 8 Defense
2011 Thoughts: Evan Royster posted yet another underwhelming year in 2010, and Penn State as a whole had problems finding the end zone; but there's new blood with running back Silas Redd. Quarterback will once again come down to Rob Bolden and Matthew McGloin, with Bolden the early favorite.
Final Analysis: Penn State should improve at running the ball, even with the loss of Royster. Redd is ready to take the job and provides the Lions with an upgrade at the position, which honestly isn't too hard to do after a couple of years of Royster. Leading wide receiver Derek Moye is back for his senior season and the offensive line returns three starters. Look for more points on the board from Penn State, but temper the high expectations for Redd until the Lions find an offensive identity.
Illinois
2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 26th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 48th
Base Offense: Pro Style
Returning
Starters: 7 Offense, 6 Defense
Significant losses: Running
back Mikel LeShoure
Newcomer of Note: Keep an eye on Kenny Knight down the road.
2011 Thoughts: Ron Zook has been on and off the hot seat at Illinois, but the hiring of offensive coordinator Paul Petrino gave him new life in 2010. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will be a top target among Big Ten players on draft day, and wide receiver A.J. Jenkins may flirt with his first 1,000-yard receiving season.
Final Analysis: The loss of running back Mikel Leshoure to the NFL hurts, but Jason Ford is capable of picking up the slack. The offensive line returns four players who started at least six games, and Petrino's offense moves into year two, which should bump the numbers for Scheelhaase and Jenkins. With Ford set in the backfield, it should be another three-man show in Champaign.
Purdue
2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 105th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 74th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters: 8 Offense, 9 Defense
Significant losses: Running
back Dan Dierking and wide receiver Cortez Smith
Newcomer of Note: Akeem Shavers is a JUCO back who is ready to roll. He made a move
during the spring.
2011 Thoughts: Purdue returns a lot of starters on both sides of the ball, but the biggest return is running back Ralph Bolden (935 yards in 2009), which should provide instant improvement for the offense. Rob Henry is a dual-threat quarterback who looks to improve on his freshman season, but he will need to cut down on the turnovers.
Final Analysis: This should not be a four-win team in 2011. Bolden gives an automatic upgrade should he stay healthy, and Henry will be more comfortable in his second year. One has to figure the Boilermakers can't possibly be hit by injuries the way they were in 2010. The biggest issue for Purdue is depth at the skill positions if injuries occur again, although they do have Robert Marve backing up Henry at quarterback. Both Bolden and Henry are draft day options.
Indiana
2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 56th
2010
Defensive Rank (out of 120): 102nd
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters: 6 Offense, 6 Defense
Significant losses: Quarterback
Ben Chappell, wide receiver Tandon Doss
Newcomer of Note: Shane
Wynn is a burner from Ohio's Glenville High School. He's only 5'7", but
he can fly.
2011 Thoughts: Indiana will have a new quarterback in Dustin Kiel, and they must replace the production from wide receiver Doss. Duwyce Wilson is a candidate to break out in Doss' absence, and he is worthy of monitoring. On the bright side, the Hoosiers do return running back Darius Willis who was off to a great start in 2010 before being lost to injury in game four, as well as wide receiver Damarlo Belcher, who actually led the Hoosiers in receiving yards last year.
Final Analysis: Chappell is going to be very hard to replace, as he led the Big Ten in just about every quarterback statistic in 2010. Willis is a player ready to break out and is a great talent, but in order to find room Kiel will have to make some throws. On draft day you will want to consider Willis for sure, but downgrade Belcher a bit from last year.