Christian McCaffrey said he would play in Week 1. After the San Francisco 49ers placed him on injured reserve, we now know he won't play until Week 6. At least. Fantasy football managers who drafted the star running back first overall either have Jordan Mason or they have big problems. Let's start with the 49ers who will be playing for the next month.
Mason is a must-start running back for as long as he is active and McCaffrey is not. He isn't as involved in the passing game as McCaffrey, so he's not quite top 12 in full PPR, but he's top 15 in all formats. The second biggest beneficiary is Deebo Samuel, who had eight carries in Week 1. Samuel should be viewed as a top-12 wide receiver for as long as McCaffrey is out. George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk could also see a small uptick in targets, but we don't see a big impact to their value. Isaac Guerendo becomes an interesting stash just in case something happens to Mason.
As for those McCaffrey managers who don't have Mason, I wouldn't do anything before Tuesday. Well, besides putting McCaffrey on IR if you can, and picking up another backup running back. Tank Bigsby, Braelon Allen and Alexander Mattison are all available in more than 40% of leagues. Mattison is the best choice if you're desperate for a Week 2 starter, Bigsby is the best stash. In deeper leagues look for Guerendo, Kimani Vidal or Trey Sermon.
If you get to Tuesday and find yourself winless, it's time to explore a trade. Offer McCaffrey to every team with two wins. Start by aiming for low-end top-12 backs like Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne and Joe Mixon. If you can get a bench piece thrown in, all the better. You are going to take a bath on this deal, but if you start 0-2 you can't afford to be patient. For everyone else, I am holding McCaffrey for as long as I can stay within a game of .500. And for the 2-0 teams that don't have McCaffrey, I am actively seeking out his managers to see if I can buy low.
Finally, in Dynasty I am probably trying to hold until he returns and regains some of his value, because I can trade for future draft picks at some point. Just know that you are holding a ticking time bomb. He's a 28-year-old running back and if he doesn't come back and look like a league winner you may never be able to get more than a Round 2 pick for him again.
