What's the point of a late-round pick in a Fantasy Football draft? Yeah sure, if your league uses kickers that's where they should go. Defense/special teams units too. But these picks shouldn't be considered throwaways -- they should be low-risk, high-reward opportunities. They're your chance to hit on an uncommon player who might otherwise be a hot name off the waiver wire after Week 1.
And it just doesn't get any better than when you connect on a late-round pick and turn a supposed "dart throw" into a starter for your Fantasy team. I mean, winning Powerball is maybe a little bit better, but otherwise nothing else compares.
One of my annual goals is to recommend a handful of sleepers for your drafting consideration. You should read the whole list, see which players appeal the most to you, and then go draft said players and root for the best.
But one of the sleepers stands above the rest. The one who goes by the moniker of "Sleeper of the Summer," or "The #ALF," or "The Waller" or whatever you might call it. They all mean the same dang thing: My favorite sleeper. The one I'm targeting in every single draft I'm in.
All of the sleepers listed below have a full-PPR ADP of 120th or later as of Aug. 28 on at least three of the four source sites: CBS, FantasyPros, ESPN and Yahoo.
Dave's Sleeper of the Summer
I said all summer long that Palmer was one of my favorite sleepers. I meant it.
Palmer stands out as the Chargers best all-around receiver. Close to the same size as ex-Chargers receiver Keenan Allen, Palmer has good downfield speed but especially gets away from defensive backs with polished footwork and quick agility out of his breaks. He's got proven versatility -- he played more than a third of his snaps in the slot in two of the past three seasons -- and has put up average depth of targets as low as 8.68 yards and as high as 11.36 yards.
But he's got something else going for him: experience with Justin Herbert. The Bolts' roster cut-down to 53 players including seven receivers, but only one of them has more than two years of experience catching passes from Herbert. That's Palmer. In three seasons of work as mostly a backup behind a dynamic duo of Allen and Mike Williams, Palmer has a 65.5% catch rate from Herbert with just six drops, a 16% explosive play rate and modest averages per catch (11.7 yards) and per target (7.7 yards).
Now Palmer is making the jump from No. 3 receiver to No. 1. Newcomer D.J. Chark might be faster and rookie Ladd McConkey might be shiftier, but neither offer the same kind of total package that Palmer does.
And as much hype has come out about the Chargers being run-heavy, the truth is that they cannot possibly waste Herbert's talent. He's going to throw more than people think, especially since he has a potentially awesome offensive line working in front of him that can give him an extra second to make reads and throw with accuracy. And because the Chargers don't have a slew of great targets for Herbert, Palmer's got a shot to have passes funneled his way every single week and become the team leader in every single receiving metric.
As for history, Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman had their top receiver land at least 7.6 targets per game in each of their four years in San Francisco in the early 2010s. Those receivers had a minimum of 114 targets, 72 catches and 874 yards (three went over 1,000). Three of the four averaged at least 13.7 PPR points per game; two were over 15.3.
The story wasn't that different for Roman's offenses in Baltimore assuming you count Mark Andrews as a primary target. If you do then Roman had at least one player average at least seven targets per game in his final two years there and hit at least 12.7 PPR points per game in three of four.
The point is, the top receiver gets numbers in this system.
The best part is that whenever Palmer's been given an opportunity in Fantasy he's succeeded. In 16 career games with at least seven targets, Palmer's hit at least 10 PPR points 14 times and at least 13 PPR points 10 times. Mind you, this includes multiple games where he's played second or even third fiddle to another receiver, and it includes games without Herbert. He should take a step forward with Herbert in an offense
Not bad for a guy entering a contract year.
ADP: CBS 134.2 | FantasyPros 156.8 | ESPN 166.1 | Yahoo 133
I'd draft Palmer: After 85th overall
The Sleeper RB who can start for you Week 1
Hubbard is presumably the Panthers' top back for at least the first four weeks of the year with Jonathon Brooks on the Non-Football Injury list. And he might keep the gig until Brooks has not only returned but eased back into action with the Panthers. No doubt, Brooks is the more talented of the two and the better target on Draft Day if you're a patient Fantasy manager with roster space to spare. But Hubbard is no slouch -- given the starting job for Carolina's last 12 games of 2023, Hubbard was on pace for just over 1,300 total yards, seven rushing touchdowns and 38 receptions. What he did do was average just over 12 PPR points per game in a weak offense behind a bad offensive line with a rookie quarterback. The situation in Carolina has changed for the better, opening the door for Hubbard to be at least a low-end No. 2 rusher to begin the year. If Brooks is slow to regain his game then we could see Hubbard in a lead role until the Panthers' Week 11 bye.
ADP: CBS 131.1 | FantasyPros 141.6 | ESPN 154.4 | Yahoo 131.7
I'd draft Hubbard: After 100th overall
The Sleeper backup RB worth stashing
Preseason football isn't meant to be taken too seriously, but Mason ran exceptionally well for the 49ers. Averaging 5.4 yards over seven carries, Mason had decisiveness and unreal vision to go with really good speed -- all traits he showed flashes of before but seemed to consistently deliver in these meaningless games. he also ran 16 routes, which is some evidence he can handle some semblance of work in the pass game if asked. And for what it's worth, Mason has averaged at least 5.2 yards per rush in limited action in his first two seasons. Now he'll be the 49ers' primary backup after Elijah Mitchell went to Injured Reserve. Twenty-eight-year-old Christian McCaffrey is everyone's favorite running back, but if he were to ... man, I don't even want to say it ... let's just say Mason would absolutely thrive in San Francisco's offense if he were given consistent opportunities. If you don't stash another running back who you know will help you later this season (like Jonathon Brooks or Nick Chubb), Mason's worth rostering and holding for as long as you can. Just in case.
ADP: Prior 49ers backup Mitchell was taken after 150th overall for all four sources
I'd draft Mason: After 120th overall
The Sleeper TE of the Summer
The tight end has way more good things going for him than a typical almost 34-year-old non-quarterback should.
For one thing, he's been a priority in Kliff Kingsbury's offense before. In 21 regular-season games over two seasons in Arizona, Ertz averaged 11.8 PPR points per game, catching 103 of 150 targets (7.1 per game) for 980 yards and seven scores. He had at least six targets in 13 of the 21 games, hitting the good-enough mark of 10-plus PPR points 11 times.
He also has a good quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been as advertised this season, throwing with the exact same type of poise and accuracy we saw at LSU. That's not to say he won't run, we're banking on that. But he appears to be more than good enough to capably connect with Ertz on short routes. Reports from D.C. have noted their connection as well as Ertz's quality route-running and hands.
And Ertz should be second in targets behind Terry McLaurin because there isn't a clear No. 2 option for Daniels. As for game script, I like Dan Quinn as a defensive boss but he's got a ways to go with the Commanders defense. If offenses are scoring on them, it forces their own offense to keep up on the scoreboard. And Washington's offensive line might be a bottom-half unit, forcing Daniels into short throws that benefit Ertz.
At a bare minimum, Ertz should be good enough to get your team off to a decent start as a streaming option. The Commanders open 2024 at Tampa Bay before hosting the Giants. The Bucs allowed the third-most Fantasy points per game to tight ends last year and really didn't make any significant changes this offseason to bolster that; the Giants were fifth-best last year against tight ends but safety Xavier McKinney isn't on the team anymore, removing their best defender against the position.
Ertz is who I am targeting if I whiff on the first 11 tight ends in my rankings. He's the go-to streamer with potential to be a weekly low-end starter.
ADP: CBS 167.4 | FantasyPros 220.2 | ESPN 169.9 | Yahoo n/a
I'd draft Ertz: After 130th overall
Three more sleepers, all rookies, because why not?
Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Patriots: When it's all said and done I expect Polk to lead the Patriots in targets. He's more of a solid possession type than a do-it-all explosive receiver, but the Pats need all the help they can get and I suspect they'll throw a bunch, especially once Drake Maye gets comfortable. Polk is a high-floor bench receiver. I'd draft him: Around 115th overall
Ray Davis, RB, Bills: James Cook was trusted to log heavy touch workloads down the stretch for the Bills last year, and before the playoffs even began he started to wear down. Davis is a bully back with underrated hands. I wouldn't be surprised if he found his way to a small role to begin the season with the promise of a larger role if Cook were to miss a game or two. I'd draft him: Around 135th overall
Roman Wilson, WR, Steelers: As long as the Steelers don't acquire another wide receiver, Wilson will eventually get the chance to be the No. 2 option in their passing game. He might become a slot-tethered wideout, but that's fine with him because he's an outstanding route-runner with instant burst in his cuts and very good hands. Candidly, he's the perfect kind of receiver for either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields -- a johnny-on-the-spot type who can make plays after the catch. Just be patient with him. I'd draft him: Last pick in any redraft league with 16-plus rounds.
