The only thing certain about having the number one pick is that you get to take any player you want in the first round. For everyone at CBS, and most of the industry, that means you're starting your team with Christian McCaffrey. There's a very good chance for me that also means I'm starting with a Hero-RB build, like I did below.
Here's my squad from the first pick:
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2.12: Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
3.01: Mike Evans, WR, TB
4.12: Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
5:01 Michael Pittman, WR, IND
6.12: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
7.01: Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
8.12: Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
9.01: Marquise Brown, WR, KC
10.12: Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
11.01 T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN
12.12: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
13.01 Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ
14.12 Roman Wilson, WR, PIT
While McCaffrey is the only definite part of picking 1.01, there is another strong preference I have: landing a top-four quarterback and/or tight end at the four-five turn. Current CBS ADP has all four of the top QBs going in the first 36 picks, but both Mark Andrews and Trey McBride available around these picks. So if you're looking at this strategy thinking there's no way you can get Hurts this late, sub one of those tight ends in there, and plan on using a couple of picks in the double-digit rounds on QBs.
The second thing I did in this draft that I find myself doing more and more often was pairing Javonte Williams and Tony Pollard in Round 6 and Round 7. I wrote about Williams as one of my biggest risers of the preseason, but both of these backs fell out of favor with the community this past offseason, and both rank inside my top 20 backs in full PPR. Pairing them with McCaffrey meant I didn't feel the need to draft a bunch of running back lottery tickets late in the draft.
The third thing that has become a common approach for me is drafting T.J. Hockenson along with either Dallas Goedert or Dalton Schultz when I miss the tight ends I actually want. I want to be clear, I would prefer a top-four option, but this is a fine consolation prize if I miss. The hope is that Goedert can score a few touchdowns in the first half of the season and Hockenson can be a difference-maker late.
I haven't written about the wide receivers yet, but they may be the strength of the team. Waddle, Evans, and Pittman all project as top-15 wide receivers for me in full PPR. Allen and Brown provide fantastic depth in what could be explosive offenses. Know that most people aren't taking Evans as high as I am, but he didn't show me any reason to believe he's slowing down in 2023.
This brings up the final truth of drafting at one of the ends of the draft. This is "get your guy territory." With 22 picks between each turn, you cannot play the ADP game, and hope you're right. Don't be afraid to reach a round-plus to get the guys you want.
I expect Hurts' passing numbers to benefit from the arrival of Kellen Moore and wouldn't be surprised if he has his best season as a passer. If he also holds on to his tush-push goal-line role, then there is a very good chance he is the number one QB in Fantasy Football. If Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson are available to you at pick 48, you should be thrilled.
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Let's be honest for a second. Drafting a 28-year-old running back first overall is risky enough. Doing so when he's also missed most of the preseason with a calf injury sounds downright crazy. The 49ers are saying all the right things to make you think McCaffrey will be fine, and virtually everyone is taking him here, but it's not hard to see how we could all be looking foolish in short order.
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Waddle has also battled an undisclosed injury this preseason, and he struggled to stay healthy last year. If he's in and out of the lineup my receiver corps could be in real trouble. On the flip side, I expect the Dolphins to pass more than they did last year and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old. There's a chance Waddle is a top-five wide receiver this year and my team looks unbeatable with him McCaffrey and Hurts at full speed.
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