The Falcons got a little wild when they replaced Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian, whose star-crossed career involves playing quarterback in the Canadian Football League and coaching all but one season in college.
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Sarkisian and Falcons coach Dan Quinn have known each other since both coordinated under Pete Carroll.
Sarkisian called plays over two stints at USC, five years at the University of Washington and one game at Alabama. He’s never called plays in the NFL.
Let’s take a look at some of the pertinent ratios:
More than likely a byproduct of coaching in college, Sarkisian has never been a pass-happy play-caller, which is upside-down from how ex-quarterbacks typically operate. Only once in his career did he call more pass plays than runs -- he called nine more pass plays in 2009 at Washington.
And even in his introductory press conference, Sarkisian made it a point to mention how impressed he was with the Falcons running backs. He got into the outside zone running scheme the Falcons use and how he likes to utilize running backs as receivers like the Falcons have done.
But the NFL game caters to the pass and Matt Ryan is the reigning league MVP. You can bet your mortgage that as long as Ryan is upright, the Falcons will throw plenty. However, they could come down a little bit from their 56-44 pass-run ratio in 2016.
Obviously, if Sarkisian is going to lean on the run then his backs will get plenty of carries. And obviously, any offensive coordinator who truly values running the ball will go ga-ga for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman on the same roster. It should shock absolutely no one to see those guys continue to get plenty of work in 2017.
If Sarkisian has a very good tight end to rely on, he’ll use him. Otherwise, don’t expect much from the position. Only three times in Sarkisian’s career has he a) had a good tight end, and b) involved him enough to get more than 20 percent of his team’s receptions. One of those times was his lone game as the Crimson Tide’s play caller -- draft prospect O.J. Howard got involved.
Otherwise, the reception totals shouldn’t surprise anyone. It’s already established that Sarkisian values running backs, so of course they’ll get chances in the pass game. And if they’re getting their cut and the tight ends aren’t involved, then the receivers get the rest.
Bottom line
Freeman and Coleman won’t be forgotten about, that’s for sure. Chances are they’ll both continue to work in roles similar to what we saw in 2016, which is to say we’ll occasionally be frustrated with both of their stat lines.
Of course, Sarkisian would be a dummy to not let Ryan throw. Maybe Ryan throws a little less than in 2016, but the 534 passes he attempted were his lowest since 2009. There’s a weird balance Sarkisian’s going to have to manage.
That leads to two big concerns: Sarkisian has never called plays in the NFL, and when he does call plays this fall it’ll be from Kyle Shanahan’s playbook.
We’ve seen play-callers adopt other coaches’ playbooks before and fail. We’ve also seen successful college coaches come to the NFL and fail. Sarkisian has his work cut out for him.
The knee-jerk reaction to the Falcons’ 2016 season is that they’ll regress in 2017. That’s before even considering a schedule that includes home games against the Cowboys, Packers and Vikings and road games against the Seahawks and Patriots. If Sarkisian isn’t as in tune with his offense as Shanahan was, the knee-jerk reaction will become a prophecy.
