There was no way the Vikings could have replaced Kirk Cousins with any kind of like-for-like replacement after his season-ending Achilles injury in Week 8, but they might have gotten the best possible option in trading for Joshua Dobbs ahead of the NFL's trade deadline Tuesday afternoon. While Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell announced rookie Jaren Hall will get the start in Week 9 at quarterback, Dobbs could take over that role as soon as their next game.
Of course, Dobbs represents something of a best-case scenario for the Vikings offense highlights what a bad situation they were in. Prior to acquiring Dobbs in a trade of late-round picks from the Cardinals Tuesday, the Vikings best options were either rookie Jaren Hall, a 25-year-old, fifth-round rookie who had a 68.4 passer rating in the preseason, or Sean Mannion, a practice-squad QB with a career 66.2 passer rating. Dobbs isn't a great quarterback, but he should be an upgrade over that.
And that's the most important factor at this point. The Vikings almost certainly weren't going to go out and trade for a legitimate starting quarterback in the 48 hours between Cousins' injury and the deadline -- especially not one as good as Cousins, who has played like a top-12 option in this offense. There was always going to be a downgrade coming for the Vikings offense. But the acquisition of Dobbs should lead to a softer landing for Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and, eventually, hopefully, Justin Jefferson.
Dobbs is a former 2017 fourth-rounder who bounced around the league for a while before starting a few games with the Titans last season and then the first eight for the Cardinals this season, and he's kept the Cardinals more competitive than his 1-7 record as a starter would make you think. However, it's worth noting that this is more because of his overall playmaking, as he has three rushing touchdowns and 32.3 yards per game on the ground; as a passer, he's still left a lot to be desired, completing 62.8% of his passes for 5.9 yards per attempt and just a 3.0% touchdown rate. That's in line with what he's done when given the opportunity before, so we're still talking about a significant downgrade for the offense as a whole once he gets up to speed.
The Vikings, who led the NFL in pass attempts through the first eight games, will almost certainly pass less often with Dobbs as the starter, and they will definitely pass the ball less effectively. Those things seem all but certain, though I don't expect a team with Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers as the top running backs and Kevin O'Connell as the head coach to suddenly become run-heavy. But what the acquisition of Dobbs should do is provide a higher floor for the offense as a whole, and especially the pass-catchers.
Hockenson probably sees the smallest drop-off, if only because he's getting the easiest passes in the offense; he's often used almost like an extension of the running game, with a lot of high-percentage, short-area targets to keep the offense on time. Dobbs will be more likely to scramble than Cousins, but he should be able to deliver the ball to Hockenson on target enough to keep him in the must-start TE discussion.
Things are a bit tougher for Jordan Addison, who sees targets down the field a lot more often, and he's really benefited from Cousins' accuracy. In fact, among 22 players with at least 40 targets this season and an Average Depth of Target of at least 11 yards down the field, only A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs have a better catch rate than Addison's 69.2% mark; Marquise Brown is down at 18th with a 55.1% catch rate. Now, that's not all on Dobbs – Brown's career catch rate of 60.9% isn't exactly sterling – but I think it highlights the decrease in quality Addison is likely to be dealing with here.
Which is to say, he likely goes from being a very strong WR2 with Cousins to more like a boom-or-bust WR3, as Brown has been. There will be big weeks when the two of them hit on big plays, and the volume should be there to allow for those opportunities to come to fruition. And, obviously, if Jefferson comes back from his hamstring injury soon, Dobbs should be competent enough to keep him in the WR1 range, though probably more in the Davante Adams/Garrett Wilson range than the Tyreek Hill/Ja'Marr Chase range.
I'd guess we won't see Dobbs in Week 9 against the Falcons, though I wouldn't count it out completely – Dobbs got less than a week of practice time before starting for the Titans last December, and he wasn't playing before then, so this could be a quick turnaround. But I'd bet on Dobbs starting by Week 10 against the Saints at the latest, and what you're hoping for here is competence. He should provide that, if not too much more.