The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books and we're now getting a strong glimpse into how the Fantasy Football community evaluates this rookie class after the draft. We've done enough early mock drafts to get a good sense of how this rookie class is being valued, at least in the initial wake of the draft, and here are the key takeaways to know as you prepare for Fantasy draft season. We'll take a look at multiple rookie-only drafts and the full-field PPR draft we did with industry experts after the conclusion of the draft with the aim of finding key takeaways that can help prepare you for your redraft, keeper and Dynasty leagues in 2024 (and beyond). Let's dive right in:
Marvin Harrison Jr. helium
There was an expectation that Harrison would be the first rookie off the board in redraft leagues following the 2024 NFL Draft, but landing with Kyler Murray in an offense that traded away receivers Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore is a big reason why we're seeing so much early buzz around his 2024 redraft stock. In our post-draft full PPR mock, Harrison came off the board 14th overall to Joel Cox. During his rookie season with the Cardinals, Hall of Famer WR Larry Fitzgerald totaled 58 receptions for 780 yards and eight touchdowns in 2004. Harrison will have to beat those numbers to pay off this draft price, but perhaps the biggest factor in Harrison earning a top-15 overall selection in a PPR league is the lack of excitement around the receivers who come off the board after Garrett Wilson. In this mock, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Drake London and Mike Evans were the five receivers selected after Harrison. For those Fantasy managers who find a RB-RB build in Rounds 1 and 2 too risky, there will be temptation to swing for the upside with Harrison over any of those five receivers selected after him.
McCarthy jumps Maye in Dynasty
Landing spot plays an even greater factor in Dynasty leagues than redraft, and despite rookie quarterback Drake Maye coming off the board before J.J. McCarthy in the actual draft, this was not the case in our two rookie-only mocks. In our rookie-only one-QB mock, McCarthy came off the board at No. 10 overall and then six prospects were selected before Maye was finally drafted in the middle of the second round. In our SuperFlex rookie-only mock, McCarthy went fourth overall, four picks ahead of Maye. Neither player was selected in our redraft mock. On the surface, it seems as if McCarthy belongs ahead of Maye in Dynasty leagues because he inherits Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, but how they are valued in Dynasty leagues should come down to each manager's long-term evaluation of the two prospects. Maye was my QB2 by a wide margin in this class due to the undeniable and translatable traits you can't teach: Frame, athleticism, and arm talent. He also rushed for 700+ and seven touchdowns in 2022 and offers more of a rushing upside -- specifically in the red zone -- than McCarthy. If you prefer Maye to McCarthy long term, you might want to try trading down in your rookie-only Dynasty drafts to accrue capital and get your guy.
Not a lot of rookie WR buzz after MHJ
After Harrison came off the board at No. 14 overall, the next rookie drafted was Malik Nabers at No. 63 overall to Adam Aizer (which is no surprise if you've listened to him go to bat for the Giants rookie on FFT). That's a four-round gap and also a larger gap from the first rookie drafted to the next than we'll typically see. For example, last year in this same post-draft PPR mock, Bijan Robinson came off the board at the end of Round 1 and Jahmyr Gibbs was then selected in the early part of Round 4. The first receiver drafted was Jordan Addison in Round 7, just one round after Nabers, despite Nabers receiving a considerably higher grade as a prospect from every draftnik. Ladd McConkey came off the board in Round 7 at 75 overall, in a similar range to where Addison went. Rome Odunze came off the board at No. 103 overall in Round 9. He also fits the billing of having a higher grade than any receiver in last class. In last year's post-draft PPR mock, Zay Flowers (Round 8), Quentin Johnston (Round 9), Jonathan Mingo (Round 9) all came off the board around the same pick or slightly before Odunze. When you consider the 2023 draft class as one of the weakest WR classes in recent memory and the 2024 class billed as one of the strongest ever, it's hard not to think we were either drafting the rookie receivers too early last year -- or more likely -- not drafting this rookie class early enough. While quarterback play and target shares are fair concerns, the community might be underestimating how often talent wins out -- at least in the early goings of these drafts.
You don't pay a premium for the first rookie RB
It cost a first-round pick to get the best rookie running back last year, but that's not the case this draft season. The Chargers and Cowboys projected as the best fits for rookie running backs and neither team used any draft pick in the first five rounds on the position. The first two running backs off the board went to Carolina and Arizona. Jonathan Brooks joins one of the worst offenses in football from the 2023 season and Trey Benson joins a backfield that already has a 1A in James Conner. Brooks came off the board at No. 71 overall with one of the final picks of Round 6 and Benson at No. 95 overall with one of the final picks in Round 8. Training camp highlights are likely to jumpstart the ADP on both backs, but without a clear path to a workhorse role, it's tough to imagine either rising above the late-fourth, early-fifth round range.
ADP will likely keep rising for these three WRs
Situation matters a whole lot in Fantasy and some (myself included) would make the case it matters most at wide receiver because they are tied to tightly their quarterback play. Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey are all examples of receivers who have seen their Fantasy stock rise significantly since the draft. Look no further than the quarterbacks first -- Worthy joins Patrick Mahomes, Coleman joins Josh Allen and McConkey joins Justin Herbert. The potential for a massive target share is boosting McConkey's ADP. He went off the board 75th overall, almost 30 picks ahead of Odunze and any other receiver not named Harrison or Nabers. Coleman was the fourth rookie receiver off the board at No. 94 overall and Worthy was the selected nine picks later at No. 103 overall. As we get closer to draft season and projection models spit out big-time ceiling numbers for each of these receiver's target shares, we could see this ADP rise another 20-30 draft slots on each player.
