Over 98 dropbacks in 2023, Anthony Richardson completed 59.5% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 8.0 yards. He had a deep-throw rate (15-plus Air Yards) of 23.8% and an off-target rate of 14.3%. He totaled three passing touchdowns and had one interception. And he's scrambled on seven designed pass plays for 37 yards, which means he ran for 99 yards and four scores on 18 designed run plays.
Over 82 dropbacks so far in 2024, Richardson has completed 49.3% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 12.6 yards. He's had a deep-throw rate (15-plus Air Yards) of 31.5% and an off-target rate of 17.8%. He's totaled three passing touchdowns and six interceptions. And he's scrambled on six designed pass plays for 72 yards and a score, which means he's run for 45 yards on 12 designed run plays, including three kneel-downs.
You knew just by watching Richardson that he wasn't throwing the ball well, but Richardson has clearly exacerbated the issue by choosing to throw deep on what are generally low-percentage plays. Three of his 36 completions through three weeks were good for 50-plus yards, two of which traveled over 50 yards in the air. Without those plays? You don't even want to know how bad his passing numbers would be.
ANTHONY RICHARDSON WEEK 3 HIGHLIGHTS 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/U6cHtA2pej
— Dan (@Vikesfan2777) September 23, 2024
The Colts could come up with easy fixes for their pass game: shorter throws, well-defined reads, more rushing to help Richardson get comfortable. But the fact is Richardson's passing mechanics appear to have worsened over the past year, not improved. One thing I noticed was that his right foot rarely plants before attempting a pass. Another is that he seems to be frantic, not calm.
And all of this is happening right before the Steelers pay him a visit in Week 4. Pittsburgh has allowed 8.3 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they haven't yielded over 50 rush yards to a quarterback since 2021.
The Fantasy Football panic meter on Richardson is officially on "high," which means you're taking an enormous risk by starting him. Once assumed the breakout king of Fantasy quarterbacks, his regression has to be addressed, then resolved, before you can feel good about starting him. You might be ready to rock with him in Week 5 at Jacksonville if he looks decent this week.
Here are some other quarterbacks who Fantasy managers are getting a little panicky over:
What's happened? Can you believe Mahomes isn't crushing defenses? Can you believe he's stuffed into this small section of a story, overshadowed by Anthony Richardson?! The deal is, he's scored 20-plus Fantasy points in 8 of his past 20 regular-season games (since Week 1 of 2023), and over 25 points in just three of those 20. His play is fine, his touchdown production is OK, but his yardage totals have come up small in Weeks 2 and 3, even though he attempted 39 passes at Atlanta. The only game his yardage was awesome was Week 1 against the Ravens, a game he had solid contributions from Xavier Worthy in -- and a game that a defense didn't dare them to run. Without Isiah Pacheco, defenses figure to resign themselves to more zone coverage against Mahomes, making it harder for him to beat them deep and easier for them to slow down the guys in Kansas City's backfield. There's also the Travis Kelce factor, though that's more about defenses continuing to take Kelce away with bracket coverage rather than Kelce being so over the hill that he can't help push up Mahomes' numbers anymore.
What's next? A bout in L.A. against the Chargers should make for a fair matchup, but it's not any more guaranteed to be a shootout than last week's game at the Falcons. In fact, it might be less of one if the Chargers aim to milk the clock and try gouging the Chiefs with the run. Not one quarterback has 20 Fantasy points or more against L.A. this year, and no quarterback has over 257 yards against them either.
Panic meter: Low. At least Mahomes isn't having accuracy issues. Once one of Worthy or Kelce re-establish themselves as dangerous threats in the Chiefs offense, Mahomes' numbers will perk up. Hopefully that happens sooner than later.
What's happened? After two great games to help Fantasy managers to begin the year, Mayfield and the Bucs were surprisingly humbled by the Broncos in Week 3. Though he completed 76% of his passes, Mayfield was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks and barely had the time for downfield throws. One starter on the offensive line was out and another got hurt during the game. Mayfield's longest completion was good for 13 yards.
What's next? The Eagles, fresh from their depantsing of Derek Carr, will be in Mayfield's grill in Week 4. Their pass rush pressure rate has hit the 44% mark in each of their past two games (one win, one heartbreaking loss), but they only have two sacks to show for it. Jordan Love earned 20 Fantasy points in Week 1 despite his turnovers, and Kirk Cousins hit 21 points thanks to his last-drive heroics in Week 2. Derek Carr scored 9 in Week 3.
Panic meter: Medium. I wouldn't expect a humongous game against the Eagles, but I do think Mayfield will have to throw a lot. The Bucs run game is a massive question mark and the Eagles have been pretty good against the run. Volume should help Mayfield have a shot at a decent Fantasy week like Love and Cousins had.
What's happened? Saints center Erik McCoy got hurt early in the team's Week 3 matchup against the Eagles, and the floodgates opened for the Eagles' pass rush. Carr was harassed on 44.4% of his dropbacks, leading to significantly smaller yards per attempt and depth of target averages than we were used to seeing through the first two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Saints took the ball out of Carr's hands, dialing up a season-high 26 carries for Alvin Kamara.
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What's next? For starters, McCoy is out for as long as two months, so the offensive line that was a catalyst for the Saints offense is now a question mark. Their Week 4 matchup at Atlanta isn't as bad as last week's, but it's clear through three games that giving Carr a large volume of pass attempts is not something the Saints want to do -- the 25 attempts he had in last week's loss was his highest on the year. It means Carr has to be hyper-efficient in order to deliver massive Fantasy totals -- he can't have downfield throws to Rashid Shaheed get knocked away like they were twice last week, and he must be able to continue striking connections with Chris Olave just to have a chance at moderate numbers. Carr's body of work suggests he's not able to carry hyper-efficiency for long stretches, especially if he's under duress.
Panic meter: High. Fantasy managers probably need to see Carr buck the trend of being wholly reliant on deep throws and perfect accuracy before trusting him as anything more than a low-end option again. Or at bare minimum, see if his offensive line can protect him from huge D-tackles. If he stumbles again this week you'll find him on your waiver wire.
