Week 16 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Our trio of experts -- Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings -- publish their first rankings of the week every Tuesday, and Chris Towers is here to break them down for the week ahead.
1. Who is the typical must-start QB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Eli Manning
- Dave: Jameis Winston
- Heath: Carson Palmer
Manning's regression this season has been a huge disappointment, especially after his seeming improvements over the past two seasons. It's fair to say your team probably has some problems if he's been a must-start option for you. The matchup against the Eagles is a middling one, with a tough defensive line trying to make up for a weak secondary, especially over the top.
If Manning can get time, he could have a big day with Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard going deep, but he's definitely a huge risk at this point.
Overall, the arrow is definitely pointing up for Winston, but this season is a good example of how progress doesn't always move in a straight line for young players. Winston is in the midst of a bit of a cold spell, and though the matchup with New Orleans looks like a good one on the surface, he did manage just eight Fantasy points against them in Week 14.
Like Manning, he is a high-variance play, who could light up the scoreboard and take you to the promised land or sink you.
Palmer has at least 280 yards in three of his past five games, while throwing multiple touchdowns in each, but it sure doesn't feel like he's playing that well. Palmer has definitely regressed across the board from a year ago, but as he showed last week he can still get the job done against the right matchup. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the right matchup on the way in Week 16.
Palmer has to take on the Seahawks, who held him without a touchdown in an inefficient 342-yard game in Week 7.
2. Who is the QB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Marcus Mariota
- Dave: Marcus Mariota
- Heath: Philip Rivers
The schedule hasn't been kind to those of you who believed in Mariota, which is a real shame because you were absolutely rewarded for your faith during his incredible string of eight straight games with multiple touchdowns in the middle of the season. However, coming off games against the Broncos and Chiefs where he scored just 10 Fantasy points combined, Mariota has a great opportunity to make up for lost time in Week 16, with a matchup against the Jaguars.
He racked up 24 Fantasy points on just 22 pass attempts the last time he played the Jags, and should be good for another solid outing to help put Weeks 13 and 14 in the past.
For the second time in three seasons, Rivers is leading the NFL in interceptions. However, given the injuries all over the Chargers' offense, it's hard to blame him too much for his play to this point. The injury situation gets a little better with the return of Melvin Gordon, though Tyrell Williams' status is very much up in the air, so we'll call it a wash.
What makes Rivers such an enticing play this week, of course, is that matchup against the Browns. You can typically count on Rivers to have a high passing volume, and you don't have to worry much about the Browns making him pay too much for his mistakes.
3. Who is the typical must-start RB who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Spencer Ware
- Dave: Spencer Ware
- Heath: Thomas Rawls
Early in the season, Ware looked like a back with a high floor and a huge ceiling, but he has settled in as a solid, dependable option, if not a superstar. Ware is averaging 77.2 yards from scrimmage over his last six games, but has just one game with double digits in Fantasy points, thanks to just two touchdowns in that span. His last matchup against the Broncos might have been the platonic ideal of a Spencer Ware game at this point; 64 rushing yards, 32 receiving yards, no touchdowns.
That seems like a pretty safe expectation, but it's going to be tough for Ware to get into the end zone, which seems to limit his ceiling these days.
Between a botched return from ankle surgery and an extended absence due to another leg injury, Rawls' season just hasn't gone as hoped. There were definite signs of life a few weeks ago, especially during a 106-yard, two-touchdown outing in Week 13 against the Panthers. However, he came tumbling back to earth in Week 15, rushing for just 34 yards on 21 carries against a tough Rams' front seven, and now has to face off against a Cardinals' defense allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, the fourth-lowest in the league.
4. Who is the RB typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Todd Gurley
- Dave: Rob Kelley
- Heath: Rob Kelley
There is something entirely cruel about the way Todd Gurley's schedule has worked out. Chances are, if you invested a first-round pick in him, your team has long been eliminated from playoff contention, in large part thanks to Gurley's struggles. And now he gets to go against one of the worst rush defenses of the decade in the championship week.
The 49ers have surrendered 2,4689 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground, at a whopping 5.0 yards per carry, so matchups don't get much more enticing than this. Just ask Devonta Freeman. If you have Gurley and have somehow managed to stay alive, this should be a nice opportunity for him to potential live up to some of your expectations. And if Gurley already ruined your season, just take solace in the fact that he managed just 42 yards from scrimmage in his last matchup against the 49ers.
Kelley's Week 15 might be the luckiest Fantasy performance of all time, as he managed to score in double figures despite rushing for just 9 yards on eight carries. A touchdown and 47 receiving yards saved his day. The touchdown isn't a huge surprise, but the 47 receiving yards certainly are, as he had just six receptions in his first 11 games.
Kelley has been a solid contributor for the Redskins overall, however, and better days are almost certainly ahead for him in Week 16 against the Bears, who were just gashed by the Packers' previously lifeless running game.
5. Who is the typical must-start WR who could ruin my season single-handedly?
- Jamey: Larry Fitzgerald
- Dave: Alshon Jeffery
- Heath: Tyreek Hill
I'm not sure if Fitzgerald even counts as a must-start option at this point, with just one double-digit Fantasy point game since Week 5 in standard scoring. He is still a fine option in PPR because of his high target volume, but the overall production leaves a lot to be desired otherwise, given his lack of touchdowns.
The Seahawks are obviously a tough matchup, though Fitzgerald could avoid the toughest of their defensive backs as he lines up primarily in the slot. Unfortunately, he just hasn't done enough of late to be worth much more than a flex spot in standard scoring.
Jeffery reminded us just how good he can be in his return from suspension in Week 15, hauling in six passes for 89 yards and a score, while meshing well enough with Matt Barkley to think the two might be able to close out the season well.
Unfortunately, the schedule may dictate otherwise, as Jeffery has to face off against Josh Norman in Week 16, followed by Xavier Rhodes in Week 17. That's a tough break for those of you who waited on Jeffery, especially if you kept him on the bench last Sunday.
There's no question Hill is one of the most exciting players in the game, and he put together a solid performance for Fantasy in Week 15 despite finishing the game with just one touch on offense. He has that kind of ability, and it makes him a high-upside play every single week. However, he is still playing just about half of Kansas City's snaps, and they haven't made a point of forcing the ball to him in recent weeks, making him a pretty big risk even without taking into account Denver defense.
Hill may end up a must-start option next week -- then again, he may not -- but you can't trust him in this matchup.
6. Who is the WR typically outside your top 12 who will move me on to the next round?
- Jamey: Malcolm Mitchell
- Dave: Davante Adams
- Heath: Ty Montgomery
We don't really need to say more about Montgomery than this, do we? He's a must-start guy at any position.
Mitchell struggling in Week 15 isn't some huge surprise, given the matchup against the Broncos. The Jets are a much less difficult matchup, as Matt Moore proved in tearing them apart on just 18 pass attempts last Saturday. Mitchell has some experience of his own in burning the Jets, coming off a two-touchdown performance the last time he saw them.
He had just 42 yards in that game, but you have to like his chances of improving on that against a Jets' secondary that has really fallen apart this season, even if you can't expect two more touchdowns this time around.
Adams doesn't have anyone to blame but himself for his disappointing showing in Week 15, as he dropped a pair of would-be touchdown passes to end up with just 25 yards on two receptions. He now has one or two Fantasy points in two of his last three games, and he hasn't topped seven targets since Week 10, so things seem to be leveling off for him. Still, he has a solid role in a high-volume passing offense, and should avoid the worst the Vikings have to offer, with Jordy Nelson likely to see more of Xavier Rhodes.
Adams is no longer the sure thing he seemed to be in the middle of the season, but he still has plenty of upside. Don't forget that 16-point performance against the Seahawks in Week 14.