We have gotten one step closer to the ultimate goal, but the job is far from done. With that in mind, here are five guys to start and five to avoid if you can in critical Week 15.
Get 'em active ...
Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (vs. MIN)
Current own/start
%: 100/75
I'd start him over: Knowshon Moreno (at BAL), DeMarco Murray
(vs. PIT), Stevan Ridley (vs. SF)
Why
do I like Steven Jackson so much these
days? The answer is consistency, and not just consistency in terms of
his workload, but also his production. Jackson has touched the ball 20
or more times in three straight and four out of his last five games. Not
surprisingly, Jackson has produced 10 or more Fantasy points in three
straight and four of the last five games as well. Jackson has scored at
least eight points in each of the last five games and is averaging a
very solid 12.2 points per game during this span and produced double
digits in both meetings with the stout 49ers defense during that run. He
should find continued success against the Vikings in Week 15 as they
have become a very soft run defense as the year has progressed. Over the
first five weeks of the year, the Vikings were allowing just 7.8 points
per game to opposing running backs. In their last eight games however,
five running back groups have posted at least 20 points and the Vikings
have allowed 19.5 Fantasy points per game. Even better for Jackson is
that over the last eight weeks, every single running back who has
touched the ball 15 times against Minnesota has produced at least 10
Fantasy points. Furthermore, during this run, four running backs have
touched the ball 20 or more times against Minnesota. Every single one of
those runners have accumulated at least 18 Fantasy points and three of
the four topped the 20-point barrier. Jackson has been a solid runner
down the stretch and you can count on another solid game -- with big
game upside -- from him in Week 15.
Shonn Greene/Bilal Powell, RB,
Jets (at TEN)
Current own/start %: 98/57; 34/11
I'd
start him over: Jonathan Dwyer (at
DAL), Reggie Bush (vs. JAC), Michael Turner (vs. NYG)
Shonn Greene
has taken 20 carries in each of his last two games and has produced 100
yards rushing or a touchdown in both of them, meaning that he has given
his owners 10 or more Fantasy points in back to back weeks. Greene has
hit the 10-point mark in all four of his games with 20 or more carries
this year and should be able to make it five for five in Week 15 against
the Titans. The Jets have clearly decided to be a run-first attack (75
carries for Greene and Powell combined the last two weeks) and that will
work well against a Titans team that has surrendered 21.77 points per
game to running backs, third most in the NFL. Tennessee is giving up
114.3 yards per game on the ground to running backs -- seventh most in
the league -- and they are allowing a whopping 163 total yards and 1.16
touchdowns per game to the position. The Titans have allowed a running
back rushing touchdown or 100 rushing yards in every game but one this
year and they have given up a running back touchdown in seven of the
last eight games and 11 of 13 overall. Powell himself has scored in
three of the last four games, producing 10 or more points in each game
with a touchdown, so even he is a viable flex option this week. Greene
is still the primary ball carrier and has at least 80 total yards in
each of the last three games, so he has a relatively high floor for you
as a No. 2 running back or even better as a flex option. Don't forget
that somehow the Jets are still alive in the playoff race and they will
do everything they can to win this game in Tennessee, which I think will
lead to a very steady diet of Greene and Powell on Monday night.
Other RBs with favorable matchups: David Wilson (at ATL), Darren McFadden (vs. KC), Darren Sproles (vs. TB), Alfred Morris (at CLE), Knowshon Moreno (at BAL), Ryan Mathews (vs. CAR), Chris Johnson (vs. NYJ), Matt Forte (vs. GB), C.J. Spiller (vs. SEA), DeMarco Murray (vs. PIT), Mikel Leshoure (at ARI), Reggie Bush (vs. JAC), Sleepers: Jonathan Dwyer (at DAL), Joique Bell (at ARI)
Danario Alexander, WR, Chargers (vs. CAR)
Current
own/start %: 93/73
I'd start him over: Reggie Wayne (at HOU), Hakeem Nicks
(at ATL), Miles Austin (vs. PIT)
Danario Alexander is becoming a superstar right before our very eyes in
San Diego. Alexander has at least five catches in each of his five
starts and has produced 10 or more points four times. His only "off"
game was a five-catch, 74-yard effort in Week 12 against the Ravens,
which is not too shabby. In three separate games, Alexander has produced
19 or more Fantasy points and the guy has been off the charts with his
numbers. In his five-game run as a starter, Alexander has been targeted
47 times and has caught 30 of them (64 percent) for 494 yards (10.1
yards per target) and five touchdowns (1.8 Fantasy points per target).
He is averaging six catches, 99 yards and touchdown per game for the
Chargers and should stay red hot against the Panthers this week. The
Panthers are a solid pass defense, but opposing No. 1 receivers, which
Alexander clearly is, thrive against them. The last three teams that had
a true big time No. 1 receiver and a legit quarterback have had great
success against the Panthers (yes we are excluding Philadelphia and
Kansas City). In that run, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson and Demaryius Thomas all put up at least 11 Fantasy points and quite frankly,
Alexander is on that level. After all, since becoming the starter in
Week 10 he has been the third ranked Fantasy wide receiver behind only Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant. He has
a high floor and an even higher ceiling, so give him the nod in Week 15.
Other WRs with favorable matchups: Steve Smith (at SD), Marques Colston/Lance Moore (vs. TB), Mike Williams (at NO), Josh Gordon (vs. WAS), Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown (vs. DAL), Reggie Wayne (at HOU), Eric Decker (vs. BAL), Randall Cobb (at CHI), Cecil Shorts/Justin Blackmon (at MIA), Sidney Rice (at BUF), Pierre Garcon (if Robert Griffin III starts; at CLE), Victor Cruz (at ATL), Sleepers: Larry Fitzgerald (vs. DET), Anquan Boldin (at DEN), Denarius Moore/Rod Streater/Darrius Heyward-Bey (vs. KC), T.Y. Hilton/Donnie Avery (at HOU), Greg Jennings (at CHI), Hakeem Nicks (at ATL), Chris Givens (vs. MIN), Danny Amendola (if he plays; vs. MIN), Kris Durham (at ARI), Andrew Hawkins (at PHI), Jon Baldwin (at OAK)
Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers (at SD)
Current own/start %:
92/56
I'd start him over: Kyle Rudolph
(at STL), Jermichael Finley (at CHI), Heath Miller (at DAL)
As Cam Newton
has gotten red hot, so has his tight end Greg Olsen, who has found the end zone in back to back games. Olsen
has also scored in three of the last five games and has a total of four
touchdowns during that span while averaging 10 yards per target and
producing an average of 10.4 points per game. Olsen has not had a game
with fewer than 40 yards receiving since Week 8 and should stay hot with
a chance to score again in Week 15 against the Chargers. Three straight
and four of the last five tight ends that San Diego has faced have
finished in the top 12 at their position for the week. The Chargers have
given up a tight end touchdown or at least 66 yards receiving in five
straight games, including touchdowns in two of the last three games.
With Brandon LaFell still banged up,
look for Cam to lean on his tight end, who makes for a solid play on
Sunday afternoon if you are in need of tight end help.
Other TEs with favorable matchups: Aaron Hernandez (vs. SF), Owen Daniels (vs. IND), Dennis Pitta (vs. DEN), Tony Scheffler (at ARI), Dallas Clark (at NO), Brandon Myers (vs. KC), Vernon Davis (at NE)
Lions DST (at ARI)
Current own/start %: 68/41
I'd
start them over: 49ers (at NE), Jets (at TEN), Steelers (at DAL),
Steelers (at DAL)
The Cardinals have reached a new level of futility
on offense that hopefully we will never see again in our lifetimes. They
were just drubbed 58-0 by the Seahawks who scored a 2012 DST record 45
points in Week 14. While this was an extreme output, opposing defenses
have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Cardinals in four
straight games. The other three were the defenses of the Falcons, Rams
and the Jets. Not one of the defenses of the Jets (20 vs. ARI/19 total
the week before and after ARI), Falcons (21/7), Seahawks (45/15 two
games prior) and Rams (26/26) exceeded their total against the Cardinals
in the two games combined that directly preceded or followed their game
against Arizona. In other words, you did not even have to be hot to
crush this Cardinals offense that has generated fewer touchdowns for
themselves (three) than they have for opposing defenses (five) over the
last four weeks. Arizona has turned the ball over 14 times in these four
games and has been held under 200 yards of total offense in three of the
four games. The Cardinals quarterbacks have thrown 11 interceptions and
have only one passing touchdown since Week 7! I don't like trusting the
Lions defense at all, but they are a good option if you don't like your
starting defense and can't get the Bengals off of the wire for Week 15.
This is much more of a play against Arizona then it is for Detroit, but
with Ryan Lindley being named the
starter for Week 15, I'd grab 11 of my readers and start the Reader DST
against Arizona!
Other DSTs with favorable matchups: Cincinnati (at PHI), Miami (vs. JAC), Denver (at BAL), N.Y. Jets (at TEN), Tennessee (vs. NYJ), Seattle (at BUF)
Ride the pine ...
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (vs. PIT)
Current own/start %:
99/58
I'd rather start: Matt Schaub
(vs. IND), Andrew Luck (at HOU), Andy Dalton (at PHI)
Tony Romo is
coming off of his worst Fantasy day in well over a month with just 14
points against the Bengals in Week 14. Now, despite throwing for more
than 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in eight of his last 12 games, you
might be surprised to learn that Romo has topped 20 points only three
times since Week 1. In fact, Romo has been held to 18 or fewer Fantasy
points in three of the last six games and six of the last 12 overall.
That is where I would expect Romo to wind up in Week 15 against a stout
Steelers pass defense that is coming off of an unusually bad game
against the Chargers. For the year, Pittsburgh is the fourth toughest
pass defense against quarterbacks at 13 points per game and including
last week they have allowed only three quarterbacks all year to reach 20
Fantasy points. Philip Rivers was the
first quarterback since Week 3 to even exceed 16 Fantasy points against
the Steelers and he was the first quarterback to reach 200 yards passing
against them since Week 6. Tony Romo
will have a less than 100 percent Dez Bryant
if he has him at all in this game and let's be honest, it has been the
Dez show in Big D for the last 10 weeks. Since Week 6, Romo has thrown
15 touchdown passes and nine of them have gone to Bryant, so this could
be a huge issue. Even if Bryant was at 100 percent, I would not want to
risk this matchup for Romo against a team that has really shut down
every quarterback it has faced since September other than the hiccup
last week. No one had even put up 14 points on the Steelers since Week
6. Pittsburgh has also been one of the best in the league at taking away
opposing tight ends, so Jason Witten
could struggle as well, making this a tough day for the Dallas pass
attack. With too much potential downside and not enough upside even
against a battered Steelers' secondary, I am staying away from Romo in
Week 15.
Other QBs with tough matchups: Aaron Rodgers (but you have to have a great option to sit him; at CHI), Joe Flacco (vs. DEN), Jay Cutler (vs. GB), Philip Rivers (vs. CAR), Nick Foles (vs. CIN), Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. SEA)
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons (vs. NYG)
Current
own/start %: 100/64
I'd rather start: Ryan Mathews (vs. CAR), Reggie Bush
(vs. JAC), Mikel Leshoure (at ARI)
Over
the last five weeks, Michael Turner has
faced the powerhouse run defenses of the Panthers, Saints (twice),
Cardinals and the actually legit Buccaneers. The Saints give up a
league-high 133 yards per game, Arizona gives up the second most at 128
and Carolina cedes the 11th most at 110. So these are not high-level run
defenses that we are dealing with here with the exception of Tampa Bay.
Well, here is what Michael Turner was
able to manage in this five game stretch: 175 yards rushing at 2.9 yards
per carry! Turner had three games with 17 or fewer yards and was held
under 50 yards in four of the five. Now to be fair, he has scored in
four straight games, so his Fantasy totals are respectable, but even
with the four touchdowns he is not even averaging 10 Fantasy points per
game. In fact, during this five-game run, Turner is averaging 35 yards
rushing and 0.8 touchdowns per game, which equates to 8.2 Fantasy points
each week. Now, that is a fine number, but if Turner did not punch in a
late touchdown in garbage time against Carolina, he would have had his
second one-point effort of the last five weeks against a terrible run
defense. Now he has to deal with the Giants, who do give up some yards
on the ground, but they are stingy at the stripe. This year, the Giants
have allowed just five running back rushing touchdowns, which is the
sixth lowest total in the NFL. That's why the G-Men are allowing just
14.15 points per game to running backs, which is the seventh lowest
figure this year. Further complicating the matter for Turner is that Jacquizz Rodgers is taking about half of the snaps and has produced more
total yards in four of the last five games. We are looking at a runner
who has a 50/50 chance of getting to 10 points with a touchdown and a
100 percent chance of producing five or fewer points if he does not
score. I do not think you can risk that low of a floor this week, so I
am passing on Turner.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (at SD)
Current
own/start %: 75/24
I'd rather start: Mikel Leshoure (at ARI), Ryan Mathews
(vs. CAR), Reggie Bush (vs. JAC)
DeAngelo Williams posted an impressive 16 Fantasy points in Week 14 and
was more than a quality flex against the Falcons, but I am still not
trusting him in Week 15 even though Jonathan Stewart remains doubtful to return. I know that Williams had a
season high with 19 touches, 112 total yards and a touchdown against the
Falcons, but there is still plenty to be concerned about. For starters,
Williams was held to 56 yards rushing on 17 carries against the Falcons
and 11 of his 16 Fantasy points came on a 50-yard catch-and-run
touchdown on a screen pass. Keep in mind that Williams entered Week 14
with three total points from receiving production this entire season and
you would have to go back to Week 7 of 2009 to find the most recent game
where Williams had even four Fantasy points due to his pass catching
abilities. In other words, that was more of a freak play that is not
likely to be repeated any time soon for Williams, so we need to focus on
his rushing totals. Williams has not scored on the ground since Week 9
and had not produced 10 or more Fantasy points since back in Week 4,
which was also against the Falcons. He has just one rushing touchdown in
his last eight games and Williams has not rushed for more than 70 yards
in any of those games. His best rushing yardage total came two weeks ago
against the Chiefs (67) in a very favorable matchup and we could be
looking at a similar six Fantasy points this week. The Chargers have not
allowed a running back rushing touchdown since Week 9 either and only
one running back all year has produced 10 Fantasy points against this
defense with fewer than 20 total touches. That one player was Michael Turner back in Week 3 and since that game, no running back with
fewer than 20 total touches has produced more than seven Fantasy points
against them. Williams is not a 20-touch per game bell cow and he is not
a guy who is going to produce another 10 Fantasy points thanks to his
receiving totals. Do not forget that San Diego allows just 83 yards
rushing per game to running backs, third fewest in the NFL, so this is
not a week to go out on a limb with DeAngelo if you can avoid it. He is
a flex option at best to me, and a risky one at that.
Other RBs with tough matchups: Stevan Ridley (I still like him as a No. 2 RB or flex; vs. SF), Bryce Brown (vs. CIN), Beanie Wells (vs. DET), Montell Owens (at MIA), Alex Green (at CHI)
Steve Johnson, WR, Bills (vs. SEA)
Current own/start
%: 100/54
I'd rather start: Michael Crabtree (vs. NE), Lance Moore
(vs. TB), Justin Blackmon (vs. MIA)
All
you need to know about Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman is that he has allowed just one touchdown all year
despite being targeted 69 times by opposing quarterbacks. Not only does
that mean that Sherman is playing lockdown cornerback, but it also
illustrates that opposing quarterbacks are terrified to go his way too
often as he is being thrown at just 5.3 times per game. Meanwhile, Steve Johnson has scored just once in his last 53 targets (six
games), so I would say that the chances he scores this week against The
Shermanator are pretty darn slim. Add in the fact that Johnson has
scored 10 Fantasy points without a touchdown just three times in his
entire career and I think we are looking at a disappointing Fantasy day.
After all, Johnson has been averaging just 6.8 points per game over the
last six weeks and this is as tough a matchup for a wide receiver as
there is in the league right now. Sherman was to be suspended for this
game, but his appeal was pushed back and now he will be on the field.
That means Johnson free falls out of the Top 20 at his position for Week
15 and should land squarely on your bench.
Some WRs with tough matchups: Jeremy Maclin/Jason Avant (vs. CIN), Kenny Britt (vs. NYJ), Malcom Floyd (vs. CAR), Brandon Lloyd (vs. SF)
49ers DST (at NE)
Current own/start %: 99/76
I'd
rather start: Lions (at ARI), Bengals (at PHI), Dolphins (vs. JAC)
Tom Brady is just too darn good to mess with in the Fantasy
Football playoffs. Anyone who used the Texans DST in Week 14 found that
out the hard way as they were held to just three points. Only one
defense all year has even produced 10 points against the Pats and that
was the Cardinals back in Week 2. Since then, no team has hit double
figures and the last six defenses to face them have a combined 16
Fantasy points (2.7 per game). The Pats can shut down big time pass
rushers (just ask J.J. Watt) and they have surrendered only six sacks in
the last six games, with four coming in the win over Miami two weeks
ago. In other words, five of the last six teams to face the Pats have
been held to one sack or they have been shut out. The 49ers are a Top 5
Fantasy defense this year, but this is not the week to play them. After
all, they produced just 22 total points the last two weeks against the
potent offenses of the Dolphins and Rams. I know they had a monster game
against Drew Brees and the Saints, but
that is an offense in turmoil and I don't think I would categorize the
Patriots that way right now. Add in the fact that San Francisco has been
held under 10 points in three of six road games and this looks like a
situation to avoid in critical Week 15.
Some other D/STs with tough matchups: Houston (vs. IND), Chicago (vs. GB)
Good luck!