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USATSI

When the Chiefs lost confidence in their starting running back in a mid-October game versus Buffalo in 2022, Isiah Pacheco filled in as a replacement. While he shared reps for about a full year before being "the guy," he did eventually become "the guy!"

Fast forward to 2024, and the Chiefs find themselves in need of a new starting running back after Pacheco fractured his fibula in the team's Week 2 win over the Bengals.

He'll go on injured reserve and miss at least the next four games, but the Chiefs have a Week 6 bye, so by NFL rule, he's not even eligible to return until Week 8. And, because it's a bone fracture, a more reasonable timeline for his return is somewhere between six and eight weeks.

Fantasy managers should expect to be without Pacheco until Week 9 -- and that's being optimistic.

Pacheco is worth rostering with the idea he'll come back fresh and ready to run hard just in time for the playoff run in your Fantasy leagues. Trading him is also an option, though any team that's 2-0 right now wouldn't want to give up much to acquire Pacheco and wait for his return. The time to trade Pacheco might be after that Week 6 bye since teams that are playoff-focused would consider giving up more in trade by then (plus, your team could be in good shape and thus not in need to give up Pacheco).

But how he's replaced in Kansas City will be interesting, and it might not be the running backs who you focus your attention on. 

Picking up for Pacheco

Kansas City has some interesting options for replacing Pacheco, but it's tough to buy into any one singular running back being given his workload right away. Expect a multi-person approach.

Here are the key names to know:

Kareem Hunt (available in over 90% of CBS leagues): You may remember Hunt as one of the team's top draft picks in 2017, but by 2018, he was released from the club because of off-field issues. The Chiefs are willing to let his sordid past go in exchange for a guy who not only knows their system but has thrived in it. But that was long ago -- last year, Hunt was one of the league's most inefficient rushers. Out of 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, Hunt was 47th in yards per carry (3.0), 49th in yards after contact per rush, 47th in five-plus-yard rush rate, 48th in explosive rush rate, and 49th in avoided tackle rate. 

But there were two things the 29-year-old was very good at: Scoring short-yardage touchdowns -- he ran for nine with the Browns last season, seven of which came from the four-yard line or closer -- and pass protection, something that's kind of important given who the quarterback is in Kansas City. Hunt might immediately become the Chiefs' most trustworthy guy on third downs and at the goal line, if not in other general rushing situations because of his experience.

Carson Steele (available in 90% of CBS leagues): The undrafted rookie will be the most popular waiver claim of the group, but I'm not sure he'll be the best one. Through two games, he's had nine runs for 27 yards, a 3.0 average, with no touchdowns and one fumble. Only one of the efficiency metrics I use to evaluate running backs is in his favor: 2.56 yards after contact per rush, a number made even more impressive considering he doesn't have a run longer than 9 yards. Steele has yet to catch a pass for the Chiefs, but he showed decent receiving traits in college (58 receptions over three years at Ball State and UCLA).

Signing Hunt is a signal that the coaching staff isn't committed to Steele as their lead back. But if anyone could beat Hunt for carries from week to week, it's Steele.   

Samaje Perine (available in 80% of CBS leagues): Kansas City signed Perine after he was cut by the Broncos. In two games, he's played 17 snaps and has two catches on three targets and zero carries to show for it. With the Bengals in 2022, Perine filled in as the team's lead back for two games and had 18-plus PPR points in each. His receiving chops put him ahead of Steele and possibly Hunt as a short-term fix for the Chiefs, especially if more work will fall on Patrick Mahomes' shoulders.   

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (available in 85% of CBS leagues): The former first-round pick of the Chiefs is currently on the Non-Football Injury list and must miss at least the next two games. Coach Andy Reid said on Monday that he is "part of the equation" to help replace Pacheco, a suggestion that Edwards-Helaire will play again this year. For what it's worth, Chiefs beat reporter Nick Jacobs pointed out that Pacheco's injury looked a lot like the one Edwards-Helaire suffered back late in his rookie year, and Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked the same since.  

Moving forward in Fantasy

Kansas City's schedule over the next six weeks is not easy: at the Falcons, at the Chargers, vs. the Saints, then a bye, then at the 49ers, and at the Raiders before Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay. Any expectation of any Chiefs running back dominating most of these defenses should be downgraded a ton. 

  • Hunt would be my preferred add off waiver. Yes, he muddies the whole situation, but I suspect the coaches would trust him with valuable roles that would benefit Fantasy managers at some point. And since he'd be part of a three-man group, his FAB cost shouldn't be more than 15% of original budget. 
  • Steele would be my next preferred ad with a discounted FAB price of 10%. He could be the one who sees the most touches from week to week, but few of them in valuable situations. 
  • Perine would be my least preferred add with a FAB price of 5%. He barely played through the first two games, and Hunt is a same-age version of him. 
  • I wouldn't spend any FAB capital on Edwards-Helaire. I could see myself adding him with a late waiver claim if I could stash him in an IR spot for two weeks and then see what happens. 

Turning back to old friends

The real winner here should be Mahomes and, by extension, Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs can't run the ball, then they're going to need ways to creatively move the chains. A large volume of short throws to Kelce might be back on the play call sheet, and Mahomes is always a potential yardage stealer on the ground.

It's unlikely the Chiefs will become reliant on the run without Pacheco, at least not until Hunt or Steele or someone else earns such a workload. It took Pacheco over a year to fully earn that role, too. All roads lead back to Mahomes. 

This might be the only time in the past decade when we could call Kelce a buy-low candidate. I'd make trade offers for him immediately, and the same for Mahomes if the manager in your league is disenchanted with him following his first two games.