The MAC has always been an excellent source for fantasy stars and sleepers, and the 2011 campaign appears to be no different...at least from the sleeper perspective. A few big names have moved on, thus it's expected that some of the big producers in 2011 may be relative unknowns at this point.
While change is certainly no stranger to college football, there are even more new faces in the MAC West. Ball State and Northern Illinois welcome new coaches, and Toledo and those Huskies welcome two high-profile runners (Josh Haden and Jamal Womble) to their backfields.
We may not have a Nate Davis or Dan LeFevour in the MAC West, but the fantasy cupboard is far from bare.
Ball State
2010 Record: 4-8
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 106
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 79
Base Offense: Pro-set
Returning
Starters: 7 offense / 7 defense
Significant losses: MiQuale
Lewis, Eric Williams
Newcomer of Note: New coach Pete Lembo
welcomes running back Jahwan Edwards
and Horatio Banks, two youngsters that
could make a bigger impact now that Eric Williams
has left Muncie.
2011 Thoughts: The offense has nowhere to go but up, though it's really difficult to pick out a breakout player. Briggs Orsbon has been around forever, but this is not the same offense in which he operated during his freshman year. It will be strange not seeing MiQuale Lewis running around the field, but there are a ton of unknowns at the tailback spot.
Final Analysis: If not for the coaching change we'd tell you to move along immediately…because of the new coach we'll at least give the Ball State offense a cursory glance. Nope, still nothing to see here. Keith Wenning and Kelly Page will battle it out for the starting quarterback job, but even significant offensive improvement will keep this unit in the bottom 20% nationally.
Central Michigan
2010 Record: 3-9
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 50
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 66
Base Offense: Pro-style
Returning
Starters: 8 offense / 5 defense
Significant losses: RB
Carl Volny, WR Kito Poblah
Newcomer of Note: RB Anthony Garland chalked up a whole bunch of yards. The Ferndale High
School (my alma mater) alum could see the field early.
2011 Thoughts: I love quarterback Ryan Radcliff's potential for a huge campaign, and in Cody Wilson he'll have one of the MAC's top targets out wide. An experienced offensive line could see improved numbers from RB Paris Cotton as well. Looking for a sleeper? TE David Blackburn can play.
Final Analysis: Year II of the Dan Enos era will see the Chips make significant strides, with the offense taking a big step forward. Sure it was ranked a respective 50th nationally, but CMU has had an impressive run of late, and last year was a small step back. Trips to Kentucky, Michigan State and NC State won't be easy, but the defensive coordinators of those three schools certainly won't be tipping back cold ones the night before the Chips roll into town. This will be a dangerous team capable of putting up big numbers against anyone on the schedule.
Eastern Michigan
2010 Record: 2-10
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 91
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 113
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 7 offense / 7 defense
Significant loss: RB
Dwayne Priest
Newcomer of Note: Running back Ryan Brumfield brings some very impressive high school accolades
with him from Chester Springs, PA.
2011 Thoughts: This team will be better, and early-season games against Howard and Alabama State could see a 2-0 start before trips to Ann Arbor and Happy Valley leave this team bruised and battered. Four returning starters on the offensive line are cause for a wee bit of optimism. Four wins are possible.
Final Analysis: This is a program hidden in the shadow of that other school in Washtenaw County; they can't draw flies, and they haven't been athletically relevant since Ben Braun was patrolling the hardwood. And I like Ron English. So this is a program to pull for, however there really is little reason for optimism. They have a hard time recruiting Detroit and are losing the battle for in-state talent to league foes Central, Western and even Toledo. In an era where everyone goes to a bowl game, the Hurons/Eagles are looking to go to their first since the 1987 California Bowl. What's sadder is that I remember the game.
What little optimism we have is based around QB Alex Gillett, a gamer who needs help. Go get em Alex!
Northern Illinois
2010 Record: 11-3
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 19
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 26th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 9 offense / 4 defense
Significant loss: RB Chad
Spann
Newcomer of Note: Former Tar Heel RB Jamal Womble is ready to womble.
2011 Thoughts: This will again be a very good offense. Both running backs, Jasmin Hopkins and Jamal Womble, could emerge as serious fantasy factors. Of course neither will come close to matching the crazy production of Chad Spann; however this is an offense that will move the ball. And in Chandler Harnish the Huskies boast one of the MAC's top quarterbacks. Five starters return on the offensive line ... that's all of them.
Final Analysis: Losing a coach like Jerry Kill following such a memorable 2011 campaign would normally be cause to mourn and win about five games the following season. This will not be the case here. NIU will continue to run the ball, and Chandler Harnish will continue to lead. This team will again gash MAC opponents on the ground.
Toledo
2010 Record: 8-5
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 74
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 56
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters: 9 offense / 9 defense
Significant losses: When
you return 18 of 22 starters from the previous season then there aren't
too many significant losses.
Newcomer of Note: Former Boston
College running back Josh Haden is
ready to make a big splash.
2011 Thoughts: There is some serious firepower at Toledo. Whether it's Terrence Owens or Austin Dantin under center, in wide receiver Eric Page the starter will have one of the nation's top pass catchers at his disposal. And with Adonis Thomas and Josh Haden running the ball behind an offensive line that returns three starters, it will be impossible to sell out to stop the forward pass.
Final Analysis: The September 17 visit from Boise could be fun. Provided the Rockets don't get too beat up the previous weekend in Columbus, there's reason to believe that Toledo can hang around with the Broncos for a while. This was the nation's 74th-rated offense a season ago, and I'm willing to bet that they climb into the Top 50 this season. This is a talented group, and if the defense can get a few stops now and then there's a very good chance that Tim Beckman's boys are lining up in the MAC Championship Game.
Western Michigan
2010 Record: 6-6
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 34
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 73
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 6 offense / 8 defense
Significant loss: WR Juan
Nunez
Newcomer of Note: Wide receiver Kendrick Roberts appears to be the real deal.
2011 Thoughts: Alex Carder was damn good last season, though this will be an inexperienced offensive line in 2011. Wide receiver Jordan White was granted another year of eligibility, and his presence will do more than just provide Carder a go-to guy; it will go a long way towards opening up the ground attack, one we expect to be led by the speedy Tevin Drake.
Final Analysis: We're looking for the 34th-ranked offense from 2010 to take a few steps back in 2011. The offense must replace six starters on offense, included are the three aforementioned starters on the offensive line. There is a little bit of concern that Jordan White may struggle without Juan Nunez around to take off some of the pressure. The opener at Michigan may go a long way towards predicting the rest of the season. I don't look for the Broncos to pull the upset, but if they can hang around and make this a game in the fourth quarter then it'll likely be a sign that the offense has plugged the holes ... and that the defense has kept Denard Robinson in check.
Akron
2010 Record: 1-11
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 119
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 99
Base Offense: Pro-style
Returning
Starters: 6 offense / 7 defense
Significant losses: RB Alex Allen, WR Jeremy LaFrance, WR Jalil Carter
Newcomer of Note: Wide Receiver A.J. Price
originally signed with Penn State and then took a detour to Dean
College. Now the 6'4” target from Reston, VA will look to make an impact
at Akron. Size makes him intriguing.
2011 Thoughts: This team is bad, though there could be some promising prospects at the tailback spot. Jawon Chisholm and Broderick Alexander are expected to battle for the starting job. If either emerges then he could, I repeat could, serve as a decent spot start when things get tough.
Final Analysis: There really isn't too much to see here. This was the nation's 119th ranked offense last season, and it'll take a miraculous improvement to warrant any draft day consideration. Patrick Nicely will lead the squad, and he'll likely throw most of his passes to Antoine Russell and Keith Sconiers.
Bowling Green
2010 Record: 2-10
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 115
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 102
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 6 offense / 6 defense
Significant losses: RB
Willie Geter, WR Tyrone Pronty, WR Calvin Wiley
Newcomer of Note:
WR Shaun Joplin isn't a newcomer;
however we expect his role to increase considerably in 2011.
2011 Thoughts: Kamar Jorden is worthy of fantasy consideration in any league, however he's held back by a very bad offense. If he can get up to eight scores in 2011 (which would be double his TD output from a season ago) we'd consider it a huge success.
Final Analysis: Move along on draft day.
Buffalo
2010 Record: 2-10
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 111
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 32
Base Offense: Spread
Returning
Starters: 9 offense / 3 defense
Significant losses: RB Ike
Nduka, RB Brandon Thermilus
Newcomer of Note: Running back James Potts will get every opportunity to seize the starting job.
He's one to watch.
2011 Thoughts: In Marcus Rivers, the Bulls boast a top-flight wide receiver just begging for someone to get him the ball with more consistency. Jerry Davis and Alex Zordich will battle it out for the starting job, and while Davis is capable of doing more than managing games, it's very likely that Coach Quinn decides to go with Zordich, a sophomore. The ground game was bad last season, and there's little reason to believe that RB Branden Oliver will be much better than his 3 ypc from 2010. And we don't expect WR Ed Young to continue his impressive scoring ways (five scores on only 20 grabs).
Final Analysis: This offense is going to get better. How much improvement will take place remains to be seen. Good, even steady, quarterback play could bump this unit up considerably. However the lack of a true home run threat at tailback will probably keep this offense from making big strides this year.
Kent State
2010 Record: 5-7
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 99
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 10
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 9 offense / 5 defense
Significant losses: RB
Eugene Jarvis, WR Leneric Muldrow
Newcomer of Note: Beats me.
Trayion Durham sounds like an intriguing freshman back, and he played in
the Big 33 game. We'll go with him.
2011 Thoughts: Tyshon Goode has led the team in receiving the last two campaigns, and he'll again be the go-to guy in this offensive attack. He's been very consistent, catching about 55 balls for 750 yards and five scores. He'll likely be in this neighborhood once again. Jacquise Terry is a solid MAC back, though he'll have to share carries with Dri Archer. Neither should make a huge impact, though Terry could serve as a week-to-week fill-in.
Final Analysis: The offense will go as far as Spencer Keith takes it. With nine starters returning there is reason for optimism, but this was the 99th –ranked unit a season ago. Even decent improvement will still leave it well in the bottom half of FBS units.
Miami
2010 Record: 10-4
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 81
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 28
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 8 offense / 9 defense
Significant losses: RB
Thomas Merriweather, WR Armand Robinson
Newcomer of Note: Dawan Scott and Justin Wiley are
speedy backs who could earn the chance to compete immediately.
2011 Thoughts: Quarterback Zac Dysert will have four returning starters on the offensive line, and if he can stay healthy then we're probably looking at a very nice season of tossing it to Nick Harwell. The running game is a bit more uncertain; we like Tracy Woods to step in and replace Merriweather, but those two freshman backs could each make a move this fall.
Final Analysis: Miami coach Don Treadwell is stepping into a very nice situation. He has 17 starters returning from a 10-win team; however the offense must improve upon its 81st ranking from a season ago if another big season is to take place. Look for improved quarterbacking, be it from Dysert or Austin Boucher. Treadwell is an offensive guy, and he's done very good work wherever he's been. If a clear tailback emerges then he immediately becomes a factor; however Treadwell's history also shows a guy willing to share carries among backs.
Ohio
2010 Record: 8-5
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 95
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 41
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 6 offense / 3 defense
Significant losses: QB Boo
Jackson, RB Vince Davidson, WR Terrence McCrae
Newcomer of Note: Running
back Kyle Hammonds may be a name to keep in mind down the road.
2011 Thoughts: We like Tyler Tettleton to emerge as the team's starting quarterback, and his spring game performance gave indications that he could be the catalyst to an improved Ohio offense. Donte Harden will again anchor the ground attack, but he hasn't shown the ability to make big plays. TE Jordan Thompson may be the only draft-worthy Bobcat.
Final Analysis: It's not pretty, but Frank Solich gets it done…just not for fantasy owners.
Temple
2010 Record: 8-4
Offensive Rank (out of 120): 89
Defensive
Rank (out of 120): 16
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning
Starters: 8 offense / 7 defense
Significant loss: WR
Michael Campbell
Newcomer of Note: New coach Steve Addazio and
OC Scott Loeffler make this a much more intriguing offense. The new crew
will use what works best, and this means a lot of Bernard Pierce. However if you're looking for a newcomer on the player
side, then JUCO quarterback Clint Granger is definitely a fella to watch
this fall.
2011 Thoughts: This is a team that could really challenge for the MAC crown. It all depends on how quickly the team adapts to the new spread attack, and if Granger (or another challenger for the job) can seize and excel in the quarterback gig.
Final Analysis: We know that if Bernard Pierce is healthy then the Owls have a true workhorse at tailback, one who is probably the MAC's best runner. If you're looking for a true sleeper then wide receiver Rod Streater could really come from nowhere. Again, a great deal hinges on quarterback play, but Streater could really flourish in this new system.