Brandin Cooks is set to enter his fourth NFL season after back-to-back 1,100-yard and eight-plus score campaigns in New Orleans.
Brandon Marshall just finished his 11th year in the league and posted a 10-year low in catches and landed less than six scores for the third time in his career.
Both receivers are expected to be on the move in the very near future, and both will see their Fantasy futures get spun in different directions.
Despite Saints coach Sean Payton suggesting otherwise, ESPN reported both the Titans and Eagles have shown interest in Cooks and will likely give up draft picks to get him.
Cooks has delivered over 75 catches, 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in consecutive seasons, but that production has come in bunches. His Fantasy owners know he’s inconsistent, raking in 10-plus points in 13 of 32 games (40.6 percent). Of those 13 games, 10 have been for 15-plus points, but he’s also soured for seven or fewer points 12 times in that same span.
He’s specifically benefitted from his surroundings. The Saints are a strong passing team thanks to Payton calling plays and All-Pro quarterback Drew Brees firing to quality targets. New Orleans also plays its home games indoors on turf, which typically helps players play faster.
You already know Cooks’ numbers were pretty good with Brees. But the conditions in which he played in definitely impacted his numbers.
Indoors (30 games): 7.6 targets, 5.2 catches, 72.2 yards, 0.53 touchdowns per game
Outdoors (12 games): 7.3 targets, 5.0 catches, 57.8 yards, 0.33 touchdowns per game
On Turf (29 games): 7.6 targets, 5.2 catches, 69.0 yards, 0.48 touchdowns per game
On Grass (13 games): 7.2 targets, 4.9 catches, 66.2 yards, 0.46 touchdowns per game
His results in outdoor games stick out like a sore thumb. Typically receivers are impacted by what they run on, not whether they can see the sun.
So it got me thinking ... how did Cooks do specifically when he played outside on a natural field?
Outdoors, On Grass (11 games): 7.1 targets, 4.8 receptions, 56.9 yards, 0.36 touchdowns per game
And only three 10-plus Fantasy point performances.
Is now a bad time to tell you the Titans and Eagles both play their home games outdoors on grass?
Unless another team gets in on the bidding for Cooks, or unless the Saints decide to hang on to him, expect his value to slide. Even if he went to play with Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, a promising young passer for sure, the offense would still be considered conservative and he’d almost certainly see his numbers drop. And even if he landed in a pass-leaning offense like Philadelphia’s with Carson Wentz, he’d still be far away from the rockin’ high-stat shootouts that Brees and the Saints provide.
Cooks has fallen to low-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver value and a potential Round 5 pick in non-PPR.
Meanwhile, his departure from N’awlins would only help the outlooks for Michael Thomas, Willie Snead and maybe even Coby Fleener because they’d theoretically get more looks from Brees. They’re still in the right place.
After 2016, a lot of people believe Marshall is over the hill. He had one game with 10-plus Fantasy points and turned into bench material in the second half of the season.
But it’s not all on him. The Jets went through a series of quarterback follies that hurt the quality of targets Marshall would get. And when Eric Decker went down in Week 3, it didn’t take long for opposing defenses to slant coverage toward Marshall. By Week 6, Marshall was getting erased.
The 8.5 targets per game was second-worst for him since 2007 and the 46.1 percent catch rate of those targets was the worse of his career by nearly 10 percent.
It’s fine to say Marshall isn’t a dominant receiver anymore, but a guy of his size and savvy should still be productive. If put in a position where he can share the field with another strong receiver he’d contend for 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, especially if he has a good quarterback.
Heck, he blew those numbers away in 2015 when he shared the field with Decker and caught passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick!
Expect many suitors for Marshall, including potentially the Ravens, Buccaneers, Titans, Bengals, Vikings, Panthers, Patriots and every team in the NFC East.
He might not be as popular in Fantasy circles as he once was, but if Marshall signs on with a contending team with a solid quarterback, he’ll have a shot at being a top 50 pick as a No. 2 receiver. One more year from the soon-to-be 33-year old isn’t asking for too much provided he’s in a position to succeed.
