We received a non-stop flow of practice reports and news filling our social media feeds once training camps opened about a week ago. Every highlight glamorized, every injury magnified, every signing hyped. Football was back!
It's the time of year when over-reacting might be detrimental to your Fantasy season. The wrong player gets too much attention and before you know it, his average draft position is too high and his value is ruined.
You might argue no player experienced more instant hype than Malik Nabers, the Giants' stud receiver who tore his right ACL and meniscus last September. Offseason quotes from head coach John Harbaugh insinuated his timetable to return was very much in flux, plus a second offseason clean-up surgery was reported.
But Nabers was out there practicing on the first day of Giants training camp and looking more or less like his normal, quick-cutting, explosive self. When he spoke to the media days later, he claimed the date for his clean-up surgery was erroneously reported and that he had been running routes for weeks before camp.
That forced us to pivot away from the offseason evaluation we put in for Nabers. He's no longer a candidate to slog through the first half of the year as he rounds back into form; he now has a shot to be every bit of the playmaker he was as a rookie. A reminder: that meant 11.3 targets per game, 18.2 PPR points per game and 11 non-PPR points per game -- and that was even with nearly 20% of his targets deemed uncatchable! Nabers might not see quite that high of target volume with the Giants expected to be run-heavy, but Matt Nagy dialed up a receiver to see at least 8.2 targets per game in three of four seasons as the Bears playcaller many moons ago.
Nabers is unquestionably one of Fantasy's biggest risers through the first week of training camp, going from a Round 4 outlook to the border of Round 2. And considering his ceiling, taking him in Round 2 isn't as crazy. We'd probably recommend him as a Round 1 pick had he never hurt his knee.
Here are the other risers and fallers through the early days of training camp
Panthers
Risers: Jonathon Brooks, Jalen Coker
Fallers: Chuba Hubbard, Tetairoa McMillan
Brooks started Panthers camp without issue and has demonstrated his talent to cut and catch while coming in a little stronger than when we last saw him. He figures to share the rushing workload with Chuba Hubbard in Carolina, but the Panthers showed us last season they were willing to put someone other than Hubbard in a feature role after Hubbard came back from an injury. From Week 7 through the end of the regular season, Hubbard led the Panthers RBs in both snaps and touches in only one game. Over that same span, Hubbard had five or fewer touches than the primary back in just four other games, meaning the Panthers were more than OK giving someone else the lead back duties. A similar situation is very likely if Brooks is anywhere near as effective as his talent profile suggests.
The positive news on Brooks put him ahead of Hubbard in my rankings, but neither one should be taken in the first 85 picks.
Carolina's receivers have looked sharp throughout camp, but that's the twist -- there's two of them. McMillan never quite became a target hog last season, averaging a good 7.2 targets per game but turning it into just 12.4 PPR points on average. Coker suffered a quadriceps strain before the start of last year and needed a lot of time to come back and play at a high level. That happened in the final eight weeks of the season (including playoffs) when Coker had 5.5 targets to McMillan's 6.5 but averaged more touches per game and scored identical PPR averages (13.1) over that span. Coker came to camp in great shape with improved footwork, putting him in position to be nearly as much of a threat for the Panthers as McMillan. With two offensive tackles missing time for Carolina, there's worry that Bryce Young may need to get the ball out faster and not wait for his receivers to get open deeper downfield. That helps Coker's case since his average route depth and average depth of target from those final eight from 2025 were closer to the line of scrimmage than McMillan's.
So why should Fantasy managers reach for McMillan with a top 40 pick when Coker could end up being the better value closer to Round 10?
Colts
Risers: Tyler Warren, Josh Downs
Faller: Alec Pierce
We're a week into camp and Indy's freshly paid wideout is still on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Coach Shane Steichen said he's "moving in the right direction," but until that direction is toward the huddle with Indy's other starters, Fantasy managers are going to worry about how long it'll take him to get into game shape and cement himself as Indy's big-target threat.
So in the meantime, the top pass-catchers who are practicing are getting attention. If Pierce is slow to play, then Warren and Downs should be in a spot to get much more work. Downs especially has been a riser due to the expected opportunities he's set to have with Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh. It was just 2024 when Downs averaged 13.1 PPR points and 7.6 targets per game.
Warren will be the first Colts pass-catcher taken in that Round 4/5 turn range. Downs may soon pass up Pierce in half- and full-PPR leagues if the latter's absence stretches into late August. But even if Pierce comes back to practice soon, Downs will be a trendy Round 7 or 8 pick in full-PPR.
Broncos
Riser: Jaylen Waddle
Faller: RJ Harvey
Waddle wasn't added by this offense for nothing. Quarterback Bo Nix essentially admitted this week that the Broncos will line Waddle up all over the formation and deploy him all over the field in an effort to maximize his impact based on his speed and quickness. Waddle always had excellent talent; he just struggled to find the opportunities to show it off in Miami because of injuries and personnel issues (playing behind Tyreek Hill and with a conservative quarterback hurt his target volume). Denver spread targets around to its receivers last season because they didn't have an alpha. Sean Payton's offenses have leaned heavily into hyper-targeting their best receiver when they've had one. Now they do. The closer you get to 50th overall, the bigger the steal Waddle will be.
Harvey seems entrenched as the Broncos' best pass-catching running back and nothing more. After being shoved into the feature role down the stretch of 2025 and into the playoffs, Harvey watched Denver re-sign veteran RB J.K. Dobbins to a two-year deal and draft Washington big back Jonah Coleman, whom Payton referred to as someone who doesn't "feel like a rookie." It's entirely reasonable to expect Dobbins to handle rushing downs with Coleman backing him up. That would mean two running backs would have to miss time for Harvey to assume a larger workload. We could be headed toward a big sloppy RB mess in Denver, especially if Payton reunites with touchdown vulture Taysom Hill. Without any confidence in his outlook, Harvey is closer to a Round 10 player.
Jaguars
Risers: Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington
Faller: Jakobi Meyers
The reports have been glowing about Thomas' bounce-back camp. Beat guys are reporting in unison how dialed in Thomas has been stacking good days and big plays. Most recently, he finally linked up with Trevor Lawrence on a deep ball in team drills. Washington has made big plays pretty much every day also, and at a high volume. Both seem destined to be Lawrence's top two receivers, which leaves Meyers in a spot where his targets might not be plentiful nor of the big-play variety.
Meyers was always going to be the cheapest receiver in terms of draft value, and if he's falling into Round 8 or later, then it's a good deal. But Washington and Thomas are in a race to see which will get drafted first. While it remains to be seen if this Jaguars offense can support multiple Fantasy options, chances are both Washington and Thomas will be off the board before the 70th overall pick in the very near future.
Steelers
Riser: Rico Dowdle
Faller: Jaylen Warren
A recent report suggests Dowdle has supplanted Warren as the team's lead running back. That doesn't mean Dowdle is about to dominate snaps and touches like he did in spurts for the Panthers last year, but it absolutely points in the direction of a messy dual backfield that will make projecting weekly stats an exercise in futility.
It would make sense for the Steelers to do this: Both Dowdle and Warren can catch, both can run in a zone scheme (that's what McCarthy has preferred, though they'll obviously try gap runs too), both are efficient on under-center snaps, but Dowdle has been better in success rate near the goal line. If that ends up being a differentiator, then Dowdle is the better Fantasy option. And if the reports about Dowdle practicing ahead of Warren in camp stay consistent, then it's a cinch that he should be taken first. Neither seems ticketed for higher than Round 8, though.
Predicting next week's risers today
Chase Brown: Increased involvement in the offense along with the realization that he can be a potential workhorse back will put him back in contention for a top-12 overall pick.
Jadarian Price: The longer Zach Charbonnet is sidelined, the more excited Fantasy managers will get about early-season returns for the better-than-advertised rookie rusher.
DJ Moore: The more impressive practices he produces, the more likely drafters will recognize his potential for a good high-volume season and ignore last year's weak production when he was in a smaller role.
Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel: Familiar names in prominent roles. That's enough to get them into at least the mid-round convo.
Isaiah Likely: We've been burned by him before, but he's on a new team with a new quarterback and seemingly pegged for a nice dose of targets. Why not take him before Round 10?
Predicting next week's fallers today
Rashee Rice: Kenneth Walker III looks great. Rookie Cyrus Allen looks great. Xavier Worthy is healthy and could reclaim a short-area role. Travis Kelce's dating life is done but his career isn't. What's a realistic number of targets we should expect from Rice moving forward, and is it anywhere near the 9.8 per game he has in 2025?
David Montgomery: The Woody Marks talk-up by coaches feels more like noise than signal, but a Texans offensive line that has struggled daily can't be a good thing.
TreVeyon Henderson: Last year you couldn't go two days without reading a glowing report about Henderson in practice. This year he's struggling in pass protection and still catching reps with the second-team offense, and Rhamondre Stevenson isn't. At some point, the expectation for Henderson in 2026 will not match his early camp average draft position of Round 5.
Makai Lemon: Has been sidelined with nagging hamstring injuries twice since getting drafted.
KC Concepcion: Took a big hit to his right shoulder in practice and held it as he walked off the field with trainers. Early indications are that it's not serious but his lean frame may not be suited for punishment between the numbers.
