Every week I will give you facts that you need to know about every matchup in the NFL to help you set your lineup for the highest probability of winning.
It's Final Four time, so let's get you into the 'Ship!
Bears at Browns, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Whether it is Josh McCown or the
returning Jay Cutler, the Bears
quarterback is a good option in Week 15. It should be McCown who has at
least 348 yards passing and multiple scores in each of his last three
games (eight passing and one rushing). The Browns have allowed multiple
passing scores in eight straight games (24 points per game) and have
given up 21 total during that span.
• Matt Forte has not scored a rushing touchdown in five straight
games, but does have at least 117 total yards in each of his last four
games and scored as a receiver on Monday night. Last week, Shane Vereen became the first back to rush for a score against the
Browns since Week 7. They are very susceptible to pass catching backs,
however, as Vereen had 12 catches for 153 yards in that game. In fact,
the last three true dual-threat backs to face the Browns have all topped
60 yards receiving.
• Brandon Marshall
and Joe Haden will have an epic
showdown this week and Haden has allowed the opposing No. 1 receiver to
score in each of the last three games. Marshall has been boom or bust
lately with 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games (with
three touchdowns), but has just eight catches for 87 yards total in his
"small" games.
• Alshon Jeffery has scored in each of his last two games (has over 300
yards receiving in them too) and now has 100 total yards or a touchdown
in eight of his last nine games, including five of six with McCown at
quarterback. He has at least eight targets in six straight games with 70
total in those games, six more than teammate Marshall. It is possible
that Jeffery draws the Haden matchup this week. Opposing secondary
receivers have killed the Browns all year and they have given up a
receiver score in seven straight games, with a grand total of 11.
•
If you need a flier at tight end, Martellus Bennett could be the play. The Browns have allowed eight tight
end touchdowns in the last eight games and four tight end groups have
produced 13-plus points in that span.
• Jason Campbell will look for revenge against his former team, but
Chicago has allowed multiple touchdowns or more than 15 Fantasy points
to quarterbacks in just one of the last four games. Only one quarterback
has even reached 220 yards against the Bears in the last six games,
however, due in large part to how bad their run defense is. Campbell is
coming off of a flawless game in New England that saw him complete 29 of
44 passes for 391 yards and three scores.
• Willis McGahee had a great matchup with New England and ran 14 times
for 33 yards. Still, in the deepest of leagues you have to consider him
as a flex against the worst run defense the NFL has to offer. If he is
unable to play due to a concussion, Chris Ogbonnaya is an even better option than McGahee. Backs have
rushed for 150-plus yards in four straight games against Chicago and
have four total scores in those games while averaging 26 Fantasy points
per game. Backs have rushed for at least 120 yards against Chicago in
eight straight games (with a 100-yard rusher in each of the last six
which is an NFL record) and have scored 11 times. Backs have also
produced at least 20 Fantasy points in nine of the last 10 games and
have exceeded 25 points in seven of them!
• Josh Gordon will stay hot against a Chicago team that is without Charles Tillman and has given up a touchdown to the opposing No. 1
target in four of the last five games. Gordon himself has at least
125-plus yards with a touchdown in five of his last six games and over
the last three games, he has 31 catches for an NFL record 649 yards and
four touchdowns.
• Jordan Cameron
is back! He had his best game in forever in Week 14, catching all nine
of his targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. The good times could
continue this week against Da Bears. Chicago gives up 69.8 yards per
game to tight ends -- third most in the NFL -- and four of the last five
tight end groups to face Chicago have topped 60 yards and six Fantasy
points. Tight ends have scored in two of the last three and are
averaging 10 Fantasy points per game over that span.
Bills at Jaguars, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• The Jags have allowed five of the last six quarterbacks to produce
multiple touchdowns and 24-plus Fantasy points. Still, it is tough to
even consider EJ Manuel against them
due to the fact that he has multiple passing touchdowns in just one game
since Week 1.
• Fred Jackson
and C.J. Spiller take on a resurgent
Jacksonville run defense that has not allowed a back to 75 yards rushing
in five straight games and only Willis McGahee,
who scored in Week 13, has reached 10 Fantasy points against them in
those games. Against the tough Bucs run defense, Spiller was limited to
22 yards rushing on 11 carries and Jackson had just five carries for 12
yards.
• The opposing top target has 150-plus yards in each of the
last two games against the Jags, but I am not confusing Steve Johnson with Josh Gordon or Andre Johnson. Johnson has not scored or reached 70 yards in four
straight games or seven of his last eight. He is a No. 3 receiver at
best this week.
• Garrett Graham
caught eight passes for 73 yards and a score against the Jags in Week
14, ending a three-game tight end scoring drought. For the year, the
Jags are allowing 10.2 points per game -- second most to the position --
and tight ends have scored or topped 60 yards in 10 of the last 11 games
(Scott Chandler).
• Chad Henne entered Week 13 without multiple passing touchdowns in
any game this year. He enters Week 15 with two passing scores in each of
his last two games, but the streak is in jeopardy on Sunday. Only two of
the last nine quarterbacks to face Buffalo have produced 20-plus Fantasy
points, and five have been held to 15 or fewer. The Bills have given up
just five passing scores and 48 Fantasy points (9.6 per game) in their
last five games combined to opposing quarterbacks.
• Maurice Jones-Drew has a touchdown or 100-plus total yards in six
straight games and seven of his last eight. He is coming off of a
season-high 103 yards rushing in Week 14, but make sure his hamstring is
OK. If he were unable to go, Jordan Todman,
who scored as a receiver last week, would be the lead back for the Jags.
Backs have more than 110 yards rushing with a touchdown in each of the
last four games (24 points per game) against the Bills.
• Cecil Shorts has a touchdown in each of his last two games and has at
least 70 yards or a score in three straight. The Bills have allowed only
two receiver touchdowns in their last five games, but the opposing top
target -- Roddy White in Week 13 and Vincent Jackson in Week 14 -- has both produced at 13 Fantasy points.
•
Marcedes Lewis has scored in each of the
last two games for the Jags and the Bills have allowed tight ends to
score in three straight games (averaging 10 points per game in those
three). Lewis had his first 10-point game of the year in Week 14, with
42 yards and the score.
Seahawks at Giants, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• The 49ers were the first team to hold Russell Wilson without multiple passing touchdowns since Week 6,
snapping six-game streak. Philip Rivers
torched the Giants for three passing scores last week and quarterbacks
have at least 19 Fantasy points against the G-Men in three straight
games (averaging two touchdowns passing and 22 points per game).
• Marshawn Lynch has 100 yards rushing or a touchdown in four of his last
five games, including 72 tough yards and a score against the 49ers. The
opposing primary ball carrier has topped 100 total yards or scored in
five straight against the Giants, who are giving up 22 points per game
to backs over the last three weeks.
• Only Keenan Allen, who scored twice last week, has found the end zone
against the Giants as a wide receiver in their last seven games. Doug Baldwin has a touchdown or 75 yards in four of his last five
games.
• No tight end has reached 55 yards against the Giants since
Week 6, but they have scored in two of the last three weeks. Zach Miller was the top tight end for the 'Hawks in Weeks 12 and 13,
but it was Luke Wilson who topped the
position with 70 yards in Week 14.
• Defenses have at least 11-plus
Fantasy points in 11 of 13 games against the Giants this year, so look
for Seattle to bounce back this week.
• No quarterback has 20 Fantasy
points against Seattle since Week 5 and they give up just 10.9 points
per game to the position, fewest in the NFL. Eli Manning does not have 20-plus points in eight straight games.
•
Andre Brown had his goal line touchdown
robbed, but still posted 96 total yards in Week 14. He has at least 90
total yards or a touchdown in all five games this year and has 15-plus
Fantasy points in three of them. No back has scored on Seattle in six
straight games, but Frank Gore did run
for 110 against them in Week 14.
• Victor Cruz has not scored in nine straight games and has just one
double-digit point game during that run. He has been held below 70 yards
in six of those nine games. Seattle has not allowed a receiver touchdown
in two straight and allows only 14.7 points per game to the position,
second-fewest in the NFL.
• Hakeem Nicks
has not scored in 16 straight games and has been below six Fantasy
points in seven of his last 10. He did have a season-best 135 yards on
five catches in Week 14, however.
• Rueben Randle is on a three-game scoring drought and when you consider
that he has bested just 50 yards receiving in just one of his last seven
games, he becomes a touchdown-or-bust receiver.
• Brandon Myers has a touchdown in three straight games and Seattle has
given up a tight end score in each of the last two games. Tight ends
have eight-plus points in four of the last five against Seattle.
49ers at Buccaneers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Colin Kaepernick was limited by
Seattle in Week 14, but was averaging two touchdowns and 21.7 points per
game in the three games prior to that start. Eight of the last nine
quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores against the Bucs and
quarterbacks are averaging 23.4 points per game.
• Frank Gore rushed for 110 yards against Seattle last week, but it was
his first game of more than 50 yards in the last four. The Bucs have
allowed only two running back rushing touchdowns all year and have not
allowed a 100-yard rusher in five straight or a group of backs to 100
yards in three straight. Backs are averaging only 10 points per game in
the last three against Tampa.
• Anquan Boldin has a touchdown or 93-plus yards in four straight games,
with three total scores during that run.
• Michael Crabtree played a full slate of snaps in Week 14 and caught
four of his eight targets for 40 yards. Wide receivers have at least 25
Fantasy points in five of the last six games against the Bucs, with nine
touchdowns during that span. Slot receivers have murdered the Bucs with
a touchdown in five of the last six and both Crabtree and Boldin do line
up in the slot.
• Vernon Davis
broke the Seattle curse with a score and now has nine touchdowns in his
last 10 games. Tight ends have eight-plus points in three of the last
four games, averaging nine points per game.
• Mike Glennon does have multiple scores in six of his nine starts,
but has not thrown more than 25 times in six straight games. No
quarterback has thrown for multiple touchdowns or topped 15 Fantasy
points against the 49ers in six straight games.
• Bobby Rainey bounced back with 127 yards and a touchdown on 22
carries in Week 14 against the Bills. He had 98 yards rushing on 35
carries in the two games prior. The 49ers have allowed at least 75 yards
rushing to backs in six straight games with 80-plus in five of them.
Backs have rushed for a touchdown in three of the last five against San
Francisco as well, so he will get chances to be a good No. 2 runner.
•
Vincent Jackson scored last week and has
two touchdowns in his last seven games. With Glennon barely throwing the
ball, he has produced 80-plus yards receiving in only one of those games
as well. Only four receivers have reached 10 Fantasy points against the
49ers since Week 1.
• Only one tight end has topped 60 yards against
the 49ers this year, but they have scored in two of the last four games. Timothy Wright has one score in his last five games after scoring in
Week 14, but he has less than 25 yards receiving in four of them.
•
Defenses have 10-plus points in three straight against the Bucs and are
averaging 14 points per game in those games.
Eagles at Vikings, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Nick Foles finally threw an
interception, but even in the craziest snow bowl of the year he managed
to get you 20 points with both a throwing and running touchdown. The
Vikings have allowed multiple touchdowns and 22-plus Fantasy points to
quarterbacks in seven straight games (26 per game). Even Joe Flacco threw for three touchdowns against them last week!
• LeSean McCoy had an unbelievable game in the snow with 29 carries for
217 yards and two scores against the Lions. Now, he will take on the
Vikings indoors and should run wild. The Vikings have allowed 612 total
yards and four scores to running backs in their last four games alone
(20.5 points per game).
• The Vikings have allowed a receiver to
score in 12 straight games and have given up 15 total receiver
touchdowns during that span. Interestingly enough, only one of the last
seven receiver scores have gone to the opposing No. 1 receiver, while
six of them have gone to opposing No. 2 receivers.
• DeSean Jackson has scored in three of his last five games, but the
Vikes have been tough on opposing No. 1s of late, holding Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall and Torrey Smith to 114 yards combined the last three weeks.
• Riley Cooper led the Eagles with 74 yards and a two-point conversion
in Week 13, but he has not scored in three straight games.
• Both
Baltimore tight ends scored on the Vikings in Week 14 and they have
allowed 11 tight end scores this year, most in the NFL.
• Adrian Peterson suffered a foot injury and could not finish in Week
14. If he is good to go, you start him. If he is out, give Toby Gerhart a look. After all, Gerhart rushed for 89 yards and a
touchdown on 15 carries against the tough Ravens run defense in relief
of AP. Gerhart has produced 10-plus Fantasy points in five of his last
six games with 10-plus carries.
• Philly has given up 506 yards
rushing, 305 yards receiving for a total of 811 yards, four touchdowns
and 99 Fantasy points to running backs the last five weeks. Detroit
backup Joique Bell had 127 total yards
and a touchdown against them last week in the snow bowl.
• Greg Jennings leads the team with 19 targets, 12 catches, 131 yards
and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
• Cordarrelle Patterson had a career-best 141 yards receiving and a touchdown
in Week 14. He has a score in each of the last two games and three of
his last five. The rookie is coming on strong.
Redskins at Falcons, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Kirk Cousins has been named the
starter and he was was 26 of 37 for 329 yards with two touchdowns and
one interception in his only NFL start, which came against the Cleveland
Browns last year. He is just 12 of 25 for 107 yards with two
interceptions in mop up duty this year against the Broncos and the
Chiefs. Every quarterback not named Matt Flynn has produced multiple
touchdowns against this defense in 2013. Four of the last five
quarterbacks to face the Falcons have produced 20-plus Fantasy points,
but amazingly no quarterback has rushed for more than 30 yards against
them all year.
• Alfred Morris
has only 37 carries for 109 yards and a touchdown in his last three
games combined. He has not reached 55 yards rushing in any of those
games, but should turn it around against the Falcons. Atlanta has
allowed 100 yards rushing and 150 total yards to running backs in six of
the last seven games with 100-plus total in all seven. They have allowed
a touchdown and more than 20 Fantasy points to the position in five of
them. In fact, over the last seven games, the Falcons have given up
1,059 yards rushing, eight touchdowns and 231 yards receiving and two
scores to backs for an average of 26 Fantasy points per game.
• Pierre Garcon, who had 12 targets in his only game with Cousins, has
only one touchdown since Week 4 and has reached 70 yards in just two of
his last 10 games, despite catching five passes in every game this year.
In fact, Garcon has not scored or reached 70 yards in four straight
games. No receiver has scored in three straight against the Falcons, and
they are averaging 10 points per game during that span.
• Logan Paulsen has scored in each of the last two games with Jordan Reed out. Hopefully Reed will be back, but if he is not,
Paulsen has to be considered, because he has 40-plus yards and a
touchdown in each of the last two games. Over the last three weeks,
tight ends have scored three times and are averaging 14.3 Fantasy points
per game against the Falcons.
• Matt Ryan
tossed multiple touchdowns in Week 14 and now has multiple scores in two
of his last four games along with 300-plus and one score in Week 13. The
'Skins have allowed 14 passing scores, one rushing score and an average
of 21.4 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over their last six
games.
• The Redskins have allowed multiple running back scores in
four of their last five games, but only Jamaal Charles has rushed for more than 80 yards against them in the
last six. Steven Jackson did not score
in Week 14, but he has at least 79 total yards in three straight games
with three total scores.
• Roddy White
led the Falcons in receiving for the second straight week in Week 14,
catching eight of his 10 targets for 74 yards. He has 18 catches for 217
yards the last two weeks. The opposing No. 1 receiver has 80 yards or a
score in six straight games and has three touchdowns the last three
weeks against Washington.
• Harry Douglas
has not scored or reached 80 yards in three straight games. For PPR
leagues, he does have six or more catches in four of his last five games.
•
Tight ends have 60 yards or a touchdown in 11 of the Redskins 13 games
this year and have scored in two of the last three games. Tony Gonzalez has scored in each of his last two games and is trying
to reward his patient owners.
Patriots at Dolphins, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• In his first meeting with Miami, Tom Brady
threw for just 116 yards and one touchdown. Without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup, Brady was a Top 12 quarterback only
one time and had only one 20-point game in six starts. Ben Roethlisberger (three scores last week) was the only
quarterback to throw for multiple scores against Miami since Week 4 and
was only the second quarterback with 20-plus Fantasy points (Cam Newton
was the other and had a rushing touchdown).
• Shane Vereen will play an even bigger role with Gronk out. In Week
14, he was targeted 17 times and caught 12 of them for 153 yards. He has
a touchdown in each of the last two games as well and is a must start
every single week. Vereen has 40 catches and 373 yards receiving in five
games this year!
• No running back has scored on Miami in four
straight games and no running back group has rushed for 100 yards in the
last three (averaging just 10.7 per game in those games). Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount
both took eight carries in Week 14 and neither reached 45 yards rushing.
The Pats have a rushing touchdown in eight straight games, but Ridley
scored in only one game without Gronk this year.
• Julian Edelman has 10-plus Fantasy points in three straight games. He
has at least nine targets and six catches in each of them, with three
total touchdowns and two games of more than 100 yards. The 'Fins had
allowed a league-low one receiver touchdown prior to Week 14, when all
three receivers in Pittsburgh scored.
• Danny Amendola scored the game winner in Week 14, but was still below
40 yards receiving. Amendola has not reached 55 yards receiving in a
game since Week 9 and has topped 55 yards in only two games all year.
•
Ryan Tannehill is heating up! He has
25-plus points in each of his last two games and posted a season-best 29
against the Steelers in Week 14. He has at least 19 Fantasy points in
four of his last five games and takes on a New England defense that just
allowed 391 yards and three scores to Jason Campbell last week. Five of the last six quarterbacks to face
the Pats have thrown for multiple passing touchdowns and three of the
last five have 32-plus points.
• Daniel Thomas was back last week and took 16 carries for 105 yards and
a touchdown against the Steelers, while Lamar Miller handled only six carries for 20 yards before leaving
with a concussion. Four of the last six running back groups have
produced at least 19 Fantasy points and they are averaging 22 points per
game against the Pats during that span. The Dolphins are included in the
19-plus group as Thomas scored as a receiver and Miller topped 110 total
yards in the first meeting back in Week 8. If Miller is unable to go,
Thomas takes on some flex or No. 2 runner value.
• Brian Hartline has scored in each of the last two games and has
five-plus catches in each of his last five games.
• Mike Wallace had 80-plus yards and a touchdown in two straight games
before being held to 19 yards by the Steelers in Week 14. Josh Gordon just hung 150-plus and a touchdown on Aqib Talib, and four of the last five opposing No. 1 receivers to
face him have produced double-digit Fantasy points.
• Charles Clay has at least six catches and 80 yards in two straight and
three of his last four games. He has three total scores in those four
games and has topped 90 yards receiving twice! Clay has at least seven
targets in five straight games and takes on a New England team that has
allowed a tight end touchdown and 11-plus Fantasy points in three of the
last four games (13.5 points per game).
Texans at Colts, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Case Keenum will be the starter
the rest of the way for the Texans and enters Week 15 with just two
touchdown passes in his last four games. Quarterbacks have multiple
scores in six of the last seven games against the Colts defense and are
averaging 25.3 points per game during that span. Keenum himself had
three touchdown passes and 34 Fantasy points against the Colts in Week 9.
•
Ben Tate had 102 yards and three scores
against the Pats in Week 13, but had a grand total of 54 yards rushing
in Weeks 12 and 14 combined against the Jags. Tate had just one
touchdown all year before his Week 13 outburst, but the Colts may be
what the doctor ordered. Backs have at least 100 yards rushing in three
straight and five of the last six. The Colts have given up a rushing
touchdown, at least 96 yards rushing and 18-plus points in five straight
games to running backs (22.4 per game).
• Andre Johnson has at least 120 yards receiving in each of his last
two games with a grand total of 21 catches for 276 yards. He has not
scored in four straight games, however, but had 229 yards and three
scores against Indy in Week 9. The Colts have allowed multiple receiver
scores in five of the last seven games with 11 total scores allowed
during that run.
• Garrett Graham
caught eight of his 13 targets for 73 yards and score against the Jags
in Week 14. He is averaging over 11 targets per game the last four
weeks, but keep an eye on the status of Owen Daniels, who could cut into his playing time and targets. Only
one tight end has reached 55 yards against the Colts since Week 2, but
they have allowed touchdowns in two of their last four games.
• Andrew Luck broke out of his slump (two touchdowns in four games) with
four second-half scores against the Bengals in Week 12. He should fare
better against the Texans, who have allowed multiple passing touchdowns
to five of the last six quarterbacks they have faced (12 total). Luck
himself had 271 yards and three scores against Houston in Week 9.
•
This is a week to consider flexing Donald Brown
again, because he has proven that he can take advantage of good matchups
(a La the Titans). The Texans have given up at least 150 total yards
with touchdown along with 21-plus points to the position (average of
24.75 per game) in each of the last four games.
• In Week 9, T.Y. Hilton had 121 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans.
He has not scored since and has not reached 50 yards receiving in four
straight games. Cecil Shorts is the
only receiver to have scored on the Texans in the last three games.
Hilton still led the Indy receivers with 45 snaps played, but he was not
out there on every down.
• Da'Rick Rogers led the Colts with nine targets in Week 14 and caught
six of them for 107 yards and two scores. He is a very talented rookie
who was not drafted due to off-the-field concerns. He played 41 snaps
(68 percent) and is someone to keep an eye on.
• Tight ends have
scored in each of the last two games and four of the last five against
the Texans (with 10-plus points in each game). Coby Fleener has produced 60 yards or a touchdown in five of his
last seven games, including 64 yards against the Texans in the first
meeting.
Jets at Panthers, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
• The Jets scored 37 points in Week 14, something that will not happen
again in Week 15 against the Panthers.
• In his last five games, Chris Ivory has rushed 72 times for 409 yards (82 per game) on 5.7
yards per carry with three touchdowns. That pace will be tough to
maintain against the Panthers this week.
• In the last nine games,
the Panthers have allowed only one rushing touchdown and only one group
over 95 yards rushing. Six of the last seven running back groups to face
Carolina have produced nine or fewer Fantasy points.
• Cam Newton will bounce-back against a Jets defense that has allowed
multiple passing scores and 20-plus points in five of their last six
games, with 14 total in that run.
• Stay away from the Panthers backs
against the Jets this week, but it should be noted that the Jets have
allowed 100-plus rushing yards to backs in each of the last two weeks.
They had not allowed that to happen in any of their first 11 games.
• Steve Smith is still in search of his first 70-yard game, but broke
his scoreless streak in Week 14 against the Panthers. The opposing No. 1
has 100-plus yards with a score in each of the last two games against
the Jets.
• The Jets have given up 10 touchdowns to receivers in
their last six games and every receiving corps to face them in those
games has produced at least 184 yards. Receivers have at least 24
Fantasy points in four straight games (28.75 per game) so Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn have value
too. Remember that the Jets have given up 11 touchdowns to opposing No.
2 receivers, most in the NFL.
• Greg Olsen had eight catches on 12 targets, but they netted only 40
yards in Week 14. Still, he has a touchdown or 80-plus in three of his
last four games and takes on a Jets defense that has allowed 70 yards or
a touchdown to tight ends in 10 of the last 11 games.
Chiefs at Raiders, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
• Alex Smith threw multiple scores
early against the Redskins, but didn't do much after that since it was
such a blowout. He has multiple passing scores in four straight games
and five of his last six. He is averaging 23.75 points per game over the
last four, but only two of the last eight quarterbacks to face Oakland
have thrown for multiple touchdowns. The good news is that two of the
last three quarterbacks to face Oakland have produced 23-plus points and
they were Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith!
• The Raiders have allowed 10-plus points to the
opposing primary ball carrier in 10 of the last 11 games (with a
touchdown in nine of them). Backs have 316 total yards and three scores
the last two weeks against them (27.5 per game). Jamaal Charles had two scores and 24 points in the first meeting and
man, is he good.
• Dwayne Bowe
has now scored in three of his last four games but still doesn't have a
70-yard game this year. The opposing top target has scored in three
straight games against the Raiders.
• Marcel Reece stepped in for the injured Rashad Jennings and hung an impressive 123 yards and a touchdown on 19
carries on the Jets run defense. He also had two catches for 38 yards on
the day for 161 total and the score. Reece had 100-plus total yards in
three of his four games as the primary ball carrier for Oakland last
year.
• Rashad Jennings could
be back this week and produced 10-plus Fantasy points in five straight
games as the team's primary back from Weeks 9-13.
• Running backs
have rushed for over 100 yards and produced at least 23 Fantasy points
in four of the last five games against the Chiefs while averaging 27.3
points per game (556 rush yards, 763 total yards and six touchdowns)
prior to the 'Skins debacle in Week 14. Even with the Redskins game,
backs are averaging 22.4 points per game against Kansas City over the
last five games. Oakland backs had 113 total yards in the first meeting
with the Chiefs.
• Rod Streater
had his best game of the year with seven catches for 130 yards and a
touchdown against the Jets. He has five-plus catches and 80-plus yards
receiving in three of the four games started by Matt McGloin.
• Andre Holmes
followed up his 136 yard game in Week 13 with three catches for 63 yards
in Week 14. The Broncos in Week 13 were the only team to have multiple
receiver scores against the Chiefs all season.
• The Chiefs D was
back in a major way in Week 14, registering 30 points and two touchdowns
in a trouncing of the Redskins. It was their best game since a 29-point
effort against the Raiders. The Jets had 13 points on the Raiders in
Week 14 and defenses have 10-plus in five of the last eight.
Saints at Rams, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Pierre Thomas has been held
below 30 total yards in each of his last two games after topping 70 in
each of the previous seven games.
• Darren Sproles has more than six Fantasy points in two of his last 11
games. He has been held to four or fewer points in seven of those games.
•
A back has scored against the Rams in five straight games (eight total
touchdowns) and both Arizona runners scored against them last week.
Runners are averaging 24 Fantasy points per game during that span and in
four of those games, backs also have gotten to 125-plus total yards.
•
All five of Marques Colston's touchdowns
have come indoors this year and the Rams have allowed a league-high 11
touchdowns to opposing No. 1 receivers.
• Defenses have 11-plus
points in each of the last two games against the Rams and the Saints
have hit double figures (13-plus to be exact) in four of their last five
games.
• Zac Stacy scored to
salvage his day against the Cardinals in Week 13 and has a touchdown or
100 yards in five of his last six games. Stacy has not been below seven
Fantasy points in any of those games either. A running back has 10-plus
points in seven of the last 10 games against New Orleans, but all three
of the exceptions have come in the last four games. Stacy will need to
do it on his rushing totals too, as he has a grand total of five catches
for six yards in the last three games.
• Tavon Austin has at least 50 yards rushing in two of his last three
games, but does not have 40 yards receiving in any of them.
Cardinals at Titans, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Carson Palmer was limited with
his elbow injury in Week 14 and failed to throw for multiple scores for
the first time in six games (269 yards and one score). He had thrown for
300-plus yards with at least two scores in each of the three games
before that. Peyton Manning just hung
four touchdowns on the Titans, but they had allowed only two passing
scores since Week 4 prior to that beat down.
• Rashard Mendenhall has scored in three of his last four games and is
taking on a Tennessee team that let both Denver backs into the end zone
in Week 14. He has taken at least 17 carries and produced 10-plus points
in each of the last two games as well.
• Andre Ellington made his return in Week 14 and picked up 63 total
yards with a touchdown on 13 touches. With as bad as Tennessee is, he is
a flex option this week. The Titans have given up a running back
touchdown and 16-plus Fantasy points to the position in nine straight
games. Backs have 20-plus points in eight of those nine games and have
totaled 15 scores.
• Larry Fitzgerald
has still scored in every game with seven or more targets this year and
has not scored in any game with six or fewer. The good news is that the
targets have picked up and he has scored in four straight games and five
of his last six, with six total scores during that span. Fitz caught all
12 of his targets in Week 14 for 96 yards and the touchdown.
• Michael Floyd caught only two of five targets in Week 14 for a
disappointing 26 yards. Prior to that game he had at least 99 yards
receiving in three straight games (100-plus in two of them) to go with
two touchdowns. He also had 100 yards or a touchdown in each of his last
four full games and has 70 yards or a touchdown in six straight.
•
Tennessee had not allowed a receiver touchdown since Week 2 before each
of the three Denver receivers scored on them in Week 14. Fitz and Floyd
have both been playing very well, so it will be tough to get away from
them this week, but if I had to have one of them, it is Larry Fitzgerald.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick
has been held below 20 Fantasy points in each of his last two games
despite favorable matchups. This is not a good matchup, as the Cardinals
have held three of the last four quarterbacks (Nick Foles is the only
exception) to 15 or fewer Fantasy points. In the three non-Foles games,
quarterbacks have thrown for two touchdowns with five interceptions and
are averaging 10.3 points per game.
• Chris Johnson has six total touchdowns in his last six games, but
shared snaps 31 to 16 with Shonn Greene.
Johnson took 12 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown, while Greene took
nine for 46 and two scores (including the first touchdown of the game
from one-yard out). It's tough enough when you are the man, but a
committee is brutal against these Cardinals.
• Only Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch have
topped 90 yards rushing against them this season and Arizona is allowing
a league-low 10.8 Fantasy points per game to runners. For the year,
Arizona is giving up a league-low 64.5 yards per game rushing to backs
on 3.2 yards per carry, which is the second lowest.
• Justin Hunter has 100-plus yards with a touchdown in two of his last
three games. Kendall Wright has six
catches and 70-plus yards in four of his last five games with one
touchdown during that span. The off game for both players involved less
than 20 yards receiving. No receiver has scored on the Cards in four
straight games (11.7 points per game).
• Delanie Walker is expected back and he has a touchdown in two of his
last three games. Jared Cook was the
first tight end to fail to score on the Cards in five games, but for the
year, Arizona still allows the most yards (85.8), touchdowns (1.1) and
Fantasy points per game (14.3) to tight ends.
• The Cards D has
scored 17 or more Fantasy points in four of their last six games and has
12-plus in five of the six. Tennessee is giving up 10.5 points per game
to opposing defenses the last two weeks, but only two of the last six
have reached double digits against them.
Packers at Cowboys, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• If Aaron Rodgers starts, you
start him. If not, Matt Flynn has a
great matchup against the Cowboys, who just gave up four passing and
five total touchdowns to Josh McCown in
Week 14. Dallas has allowed multiple quarterback touchdowns in five of
the last six games and is allowing 313 yards passing and 25 points per
game to quarterbacks, both of which are the most in the NFL.
• Eddie Lacy (ankle) or James Starks
will feast on a historically bad Dallas defense this week. Roll with the
starter as Dallas has given up 905 yards rushing, eight rushing
touchdowns, 342 yards receiving, four receiving touchdowns (yes that's
1,247 total yards, 12 total touchdowns and a two-point conversion) and
191 Fantasy points to running backs over the last six games. No running
back group has been held below 17 Fantasy points in that run and five
have produced 25-plus Fantasy points.
• Jordy Nelson has not scored in any of the six games without Aaron Rodgers and has reached 70 yards in only two of them.
• James Jones has not scored a touchdown since Week 5 and has just 178
receiving yards in the last three games combined.
• Jarrett Boykin has not reached 25 yards in either of the last two games.
•
Both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall produced 10-plus against the Cowboys last week.
Receivers have 200-plus yards receiving in three of the last four games
against Dallas and have five total touchdowns in those games (25.75
points per game).
• Tony Romo
has just one game of 20-plus points in his last four starts and it came
last week, thanks to three touchdowns against the Bears. Romo is
averaging just 173 yards per game over the last four, but is averaging
285.1 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game at home. The Packers have
allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last two games (five
total), but only one of the last four quarterbacks to face them have
topped 16 Fantasy points (Matt Stafford with 25 in Week 13).
• DeMarco Murray is playing his best football of the year, with at least
12-plus Fantasy points in four straight games (16.75 points per game).
Murray is averaging 96 yards rushing and 119.5 total yards with a
touchdown per game in those four. Backs have at least 130 total yards in
three straight, with more than 200 yards rushing and a touchdown in two
of them against the Green Bay defense (28.3 points per game in those
three).
• Dez Bryant has been
held below 65 yards in four of his last five games and has only two
touchdowns during that span.
• Jason Witten has scored in two of his last three games (three total),
but has not reached 60 yards in four straight games and has been held
below 40 in three of them. Tight ends have scored in two of the last
three against Green Bay, but only one tight end group since Week 6 have
exceeded 55 yards against them.
Bengals at Steelers, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Andy Dalton has multiple
passing scores in six of his last eight games (three-plus touchdowns in
five of them), but has thrown for multiple scores in just one of his
five career starts against the Steelers. He has never produced 20
Fantasy points against the Steelers, but Ryan Tannehill did just that against them last week. Two of the last
four quarterbacks to face Pittsburgh have topped 25 Fantasy points, but
only three since Week 4 have gotten to 20.
• BenJarvus Green-Ellis has three scores in his last two games and has at
least 16 carries in three straight. He had 75 yards rushing in the first
meeting, but has not scored on the Steelers as a member of the Bengals.
•
Giovanni Bernard had 148 total yards
last week and has at least 86 total yards in four of his last five
games. Bernard had 65 total yards and two scores in the first meeting
with the Steelers. Backs have touchdowns in just two of the last five
games against Pittsburgh and only the Dolphins (125 yards rushing and a
score last week) have rushed for more than 80 yards against this defense
in the last five.
• A.J. Green
has 100 yards or a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. He had
just 41 yards in the season opener, but the opposing top target has at
least 11 Fantasy points in five of the last six games (15-plus four
times).
• Ben Roethlisberger
has 20-plus points and multiple scores in five of his last six games,
including four in a row. The Bengals secondary will be without both
starting corners in this one and they just gave up four passing
touchdowns in the second half of Week 14 to Andrew Luck, who had been struggling with just two touchdown passes in
18 quarters prior to that bonanza.
• Le'Veon Bell has 88 total yards or a touchdown in eight straight games
and is averaging 11.3 points per game during that span. That will be
tested this week, as no running back has scored against the Bengals in
nine straight games and no groups have topped 15 Fantasy points against
them since Week 3.
• Antonio Brown
has 100 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games, but needs to
work on his tight-rope walking.
• Emmanuel Sanders has scored in each of the last three games and has at
least five catches in all three games. Interestingly, Sanders has not
reached 60 yards receiving in five straight.
• Jerricho Cotchery has caught a touchdown in seven of 13 games this year,
tied for third most in the NFL among all receivers. He has a touchdown
catch in five of the last six games with seven total during that run.
•
Amazingly, none of the Steeler receivers scored in the first meeting
with the Bengals, but Cincy gave up four receiver touchdowns to the
Colts last week with their injury depleted secondary.
• Heath Miller has only one touchdown all year and has not scored in
seven straight games. He has five-plus catches in three of the last four
games and has topped 55 yards in three of them as well. Tight ends have
scored in two of the last four against Cincy, but only two tight end
groups have topped 50 yards against the Bengals all year.
Ravens at Lions, Mon., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Joe Flacco had his first
three-touchdown game of 2013 last week, but it was against Minnesota. It
was his first multiple score game since Week 10, but I do not think it
was a coincidence that it was also his first game with Dennis Pitta this year. Flacco proved that he can take advantage of a
good matchup and eight of the last nine quarterbacks to face the Lions
have produced multiple scores and 20-plus Fantasy points.
• Last
week, Ray Rice took advantage of a soft
Minnesota run defense to rush for 67 yards, his third highest total of
the 2013 season. If you throw out the blizzard bowl against LeSean McCoy and the Eagles, his opponent this week boasts the top run
defense in the NFL. Prior to McCoy's historic Week 14 in the snow, the
Lions had not allowed 100 total yards, a touchdown or 10 Fantasy points
to tail backs in six straight games. No running back group other than
the Eagles last week had averaged more than 2.5 yards per carry against
Detroit since Week 7.
• Torrey Smith
had a disappointing Week 14 with just 11 yards receiving, but has a
touchdown in three of his last five games. He should fare better against
the Lions, who allowed opposing No. 1 receiver DeSean Jackson to score even in the muck. Receivers have scored 13
times in the last seven games against the Lions and have 22-plus Fantasy
points in six of those games.
• The opposing No. 2 receiver has
produced 10-plus Fantasy points in eight of the last 10 games against
the Lions and has nine or more in nine of the last 10 (never below
seven). Marlon Brown sure looked like
that guy last week when he caught seven of his 11 targets for 92 yards
and a touchdown.
• Pitta was targeted 11 times in his return to
action in Week 14 and caught six of them for 48 yards and a touchdown.
He is expected to play more than 39 snaps this week and would have been
a Top 5 tight end on my draft board before the season had he not been
hurt. The Lions have allowed just one tight end touchdown this year
(none since Week 7), but two of the last four tight end groups to face
them have topped 60 yards receiving.
• Prior to the blizzard last
week, Matthew Stafford had 19 touchdown
passes in his last seven games. He has multiple touchdowns in every game
except two this year, and I expect him to get back on track in the dome.
Quarterbacks have thrown for multiple scores and topped 20 Fantasy
points in each of the last two against the Ravens.
• Reggie Bush has 100 total yards or a touchdown in four of his last
five games and had 182 total yards with a score in his last start.
•
In the two games that Reggie Bush
missed, Joique Bell produced at least
127 total yards with a touchdown both times. Bell has a touchdown in
four of his last six games.
• The Ravens had allowed one rushing
touchdown in their first 11 games. They have allowed one in each of the
last two games, along with 100-plus total yards. In fact, backs have at
least 14 Fantasy points in two straight and four of the last five games
(with 17-plus three times).
• The Ravens have allowed multiple
receiver scores in each of the last two games, but A.J. Green is the last true No. 1 receiver to score on this defense,
and that was in Week 10. Calvin Johnson
has 1,017 yards and eight scores in his last seven starts alone.
Megatron has 100-plus yards in seven games and has been held below 50 in
four games. He has exactly one game between 50 and 100 yards all year,
which was an 83-yard effort in Week 10.
• I am not giving up totally
on Nate Burleson, but I understand why
his two catches for 18 yards total in the last two weeks makes him tough
to trust. The opposing No. 2 receiver has scored in each of the last two
games against the Ravens.
Chargers at Broncos, Thu., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Peyton Manning just threw four
touchdown passes on Tennessee, two more than the Titans had allowed as a
team since Week 4. He has an NFL best 45 passing touchdowns through 13
games.
• Knowshon Moreno has
16 touchdowns while producing 10 or more Fantasy points in 15 of his
last 18 games. He had 114 total yards (10 Fantasy points) in the first
meeting this year and the Chargers have given up over 100 total yards to
backs in six straight and have surrendered nine scores during that span
as well (21.3 points per game).
• Montee Ball followed up his career-high 117 yards rushing against the
Chiefs in Week 13 with 15 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown against
the Titans in a good matchup. He now has 28 carries to Moreno's 29 over
the last two games and has produced 10-plus Fantasy points in three of
his last four games.
• Demaryius Thomas
has a touchdown or 100 yards receiving in seven straight games,
including Week 10 against the Chargers when he topped the century mark
and scored three times. San Diego has allowed nine scores to the
opposing No. 1, third most in the NFL.
• Eric Decker had his second straight big game in Week 14, as he
caught eight of his 12 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. He has
100-plus with a score in each of the last two games and with Wes Welker likely out, look for Decker to stay hot.
• Wes Welker scored for the second time in his last seven games in
Week 14, but suffered a concussion and could miss Week 15 on the short
week.
• Julius Thomas has a
touchdown in three straight and six of the last seven games he has
played. Tight ends have scored on the Chargers in four of the last five
games and are averaging 10 points.
• Philip Rivers tossed three scores against a tough Giants defense in
Week 14, but was held to 218 yards with one score in the first meeting
with the Broncos. I am expecting more this time around, however, as
Denver enters Week 15 having allowed multiple passing scores and 25-plus
Fantasy points to quarterbacks in three of the last four.
• Ryan Mathews has 10-plus Fantasy points in seven of his last nine
full games and rushed a season-high 29 times for 103 yards and a
touchdown against the Giants last week. He added three catches for 32
yards as well and Mathews has eight catches in his last two starts. He
had 59 yards rushing and a touchdown in the first meeting with the
Broncos.
• Danny Woodhead had
a great game in Week 14, running seven times for 42 yards and adding
four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. He has still been held below
50 total yards in three of his last five games, but did score as a pass
catcher against Denver back in Week 10.
• Denver has given up at
least 100 total yards to backs in eight straight games and backs have
scored in 12 of 13 games against the Broncos this year. Four of the last
five running back groups to face Denver have rushed for more than 90
yards with a touchdown en route to a 20-plus point Fantasy day.
• Keenan Allen has 100-plus yards receiving or a touchdown in three
straight games and six of the last nine. He is the Offensive Rookie of
the Year as I see it and will try to improve upon his 41-yard effort in
the first meeting with the Broncos.
• Tight ends have at least eight
Fantasy points in six of the last seven games against the Broncos,
including the Chargers in Week 10. Over the last seven games, tight ends
are averaging 9.2 Fantasy points per game. For the year, the Broncos
give up the second-most yards (73.3) and fourth-most Fantasy points per
game (9.3) to tight ends. Ladarius Green
had a big fat zero in Week 14 on one target, while Antonio Gates caught four of his six for 50 yards. Green had eight-plus
Fantasy points in each of the three games before his disappearance in
Week 14.
Thanks for reading another installment of The Fantasy Fact Sheet. Good luck in the second round of your playoffs in Week 15.