Trying to accurately pick quarterbacks is like trying to choose the numbers for your lottery ticket – so many choices, so many variables, so little chance of retiring early.
And then you’ve got to second-guess yourself when it’s all over.
Looking back on last week’s choices, I hit pretty well on the start side with Tyler Bray and Austin Davis, enjoyed some mild success with Keith Price and Sean Renfree. Corey Robinson was fine, but I was stunned that Brock Osweiler didn’t torch Oregon State for more (three picks, Brock? Really?) and should have known better than to stick my neck out for Jake Heaps.
On the sit side, I should always remember that June Jones will throw, throw and throw some more, so the J.J. McDermott choice was, in retrospect, a puss-filled donut. I whiffed on Tim Jefferson and got a little more than expected from Tino Sunseri. Fortunately, Sean Mannion was below average on 66 pass attempts, while Matt Schilz and MarQueis Gray did very little. The crowning glory of the “sits” in Week 5 was the Taylor Martinez pick, confirming what I suspected of Wisconsin: They run it, they throw it and they defend it very, very well. In my heart, I knew Martinez would struggle on the road at Madison against a team I think should be in the national title hunt by the end of the year, if they aren't already.
Here’s how I scored them. I play in about four different formats, so I took all the scores within those formats for each guy and averaged them out, then rounded down. Obviously, some guys did better in some formats than others. However, this is an overall look at their Fantasy point contributions this week.
Last Week's Quarterback Starts: Keith Price, Washington, 25 points; Sean Renfree, Duke, 25; Brock Osweiler, Arizona State, 14; Tyler Bray, Tennessee, 37; Corey Robinson, Troy, 22; Austin Davis, Southern Mississippi, 34; Jake Heaps, BYU, 10.
Grade: B+
Last Week's Quarterback Sits: Sean Mannion, Oregon State, 11; MarQueis Gray, Minnesota, 0; Tino Sunseri, Pittsburgh, 23; Taylor Martinez, Nebraska, 13; Tim Jefferson, Air Force, 29; Matt Schilz, Bowling Green, 2; J.J. McDermott, SMU, 35.
Grade: B+
With Week 5 down, let’s take a look at Week 6 and see which quarterbacks deserve a sit or start designation – and why.
Start ‘Em! Quarterbacks (BCS)
Collin Klein, Kansas State: A true dual-threat type, what you’re looking at here is a guy who is going to get you 300 yards and multiple touchdowns via run and pass. With Missouri coming to town with the 97th ranked pass defense in the land, and a top-20 rush defense, Klein is going to get a chance to soften up that stout run defense with his passing and scrambling. Look for him to break down Missouri’s defense on rollouts and scrambles. In the end, he’ll put up numbers that help make the day feel better for Fantasy players.
Sean Mannion, Oregon State: The Beavers are this close to saying “Running game? We don’t need no stinking running game.” Last week, Mannion threw it 66 times against Arizona State. Well, he’s up against a lot worse pass defense and a team that’s also reeling in Arizona – in Corvallis. Expect the ball to be in the air a ton this week and Mannion will do much better statistically than last week – and he won’t even need to throw it 66 times. There will be little defense played this week for either team.
Seth Doege, Texas Tech: Texas A&M has the worst pass defense, statistically, in the nation, and is coming off its second heart-breaking loss in as many weeks. The Aggies must travel to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech and its big-play passing game in its first road game of the season. I don’t know, when I say it like that, I just can’t help but see Doege throwing for a ton of yards and at least three scores. I think A&M is the better team, but I don’t know how they come back from two devastating losses at home without some sort of emotional struggle.
All 120
Kriss Proctor, Navy: After engineering a near comeback win over Air Force last week, Proctor gets to keep the ball rolling with a visit from Southern Mississippi. Proctor had accounted for 11 scores in four games and something clicked in the fourth quarter of the Air Force game, and this offense went on a roll. Expect Proctor to make Southern Miss wonder “what the heck is the deal with the option,” as he runs all over the field in this one.
Tyler Tettleton, Ohio: Hasn’t thrown a pick in four games, has 10 touchdown passes in that same span, and seems to complete passes at a 66 percent clip in his sleep. Tettleton will be on the road at Buffalo for this one, but I don’t see why a line of 280 yards, three touchdowns isn’t possible. After all, Buffalo’s pass defense is middle-of-the-road and the Bobcats quarterback is on a nice, accurate, productive roll right now. I think he keeps it going.
Dominique Davis, East Carolina: With a visit to Houston on tap, the gloves are going to come off offensively – for both teams. Davis finished 2010 on a big-time rush, but has been struggling to get off and running this season. The schedule -- South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia Tech – has done him no favors in terms of quality defenses faced. Now, with Conference USA play starting, expect Davis to get things rolling. It is not like he’s been horrible to this point (1,165-9) through four games, but let’s be honest, the C-USA defenses are not at the level of those non-conference opponents. I’d be all over this guy the rest of the way.
Sit ‘Em! Quarterbacks (BCS)
Tyler Hansen, Colorado: For all the talk about Stanford’s Andrew Luck, the thing that gets lost is how strong the Cardinal defense is. Hansen is going to find that out for himself this weekend on a visit to Stanford, and I don’t like the potential disaster that could be looming. The Buffs simply have to get a running game going with Rodney Stewart and hope that Luck doesn’t quickly and easily pick apart a secondary that’s been riddled with injuries. If Colorado gets down early, Hansen will have to throw it, and that’s going to be a nightmare.
Jacory Harris, Miami: Harris will be on the road, facing a Virginia Tech defense that gives up less than 200 yards a game and has allowed exactly three passing touchdowns all season. I want to like Harris as a starting quarterback, but any thought about giving him some run in this one should be shelved. I suppose the Hokies are due for a poor showing, defensively, but I’d be surprised if it happened at home.
James Vandenberg, Iowa: Iowa travels to Happy Valley this weekend and will find the Nittany Lions able to do one thing well: Defend the pass. Penn State gives up 155 yards a game through the air and has allowed only three touchdown passes so far, so Vandenberg certainly will have his work cut out for him. Expect this one to be a low-scoring affair with quarterback stats at a minimum. Vandenberg has had a very nice start to the season, but a visit to Penn State won’t end well for the Iowa quarterback.
All 120
Brett Smith, Wyoming: The true freshman has had a very good start to his career for the Cowboys, but he’ll be running into a Utah State team that’s not going to be in a very good mood after the last-second loss to BYU Friday night. The Aggies three losses have come to Auburn, Colorado State and BYU by a combined eight points. This is not your father’s Utah State team, and they will be looking for some payback for the close losses. My feeling is that Smith is going to have his hands full in this one and will produce mediocre numbers at best.
Ryan Radcliff, Central Michigan: Coming off a 387-yard, four-touchdown performance against Northern Illinois, Radcliff is probably going to be a hot commodity on waiver wires this week. That’s unfortunate with a road trip to North Carolina State on tap. The Wolfpack are a middling pass defense, but 238 yards a game and seven touchdowns conceded in five games is fairly decent defensive production. It will be more than enough to make Radcliff uncomfortable on the road. Factor in that NC State is tied for 10th in the land with three sacks a game and you can see, in front of the home folks, why the Wolfpack will be a difficult defense for Radcliff.
Derek Carr, Fresno State: Yes, Derek, I know you’re at home, but visiting the valley is a Boise State team that, for all its offensive prowess, plays a very physical, very ball-hawking type defense. Carr, the younger brother of Fresno icon David Carr, has thrown for nearly 1,300 yards and 10 scores through five games, but in games that weren’t against North Dakota or Idaho (Ole Miss, California, Nebraska) he has only three touchdown passes and a much lower quarterback rating. The opposition matters and I’d bet Boise plays defense equal to California or Nebraska, so I’m looking at the scenario that seems to be Boise State’s calling card game after game – Broncos get a lead by carving the opponent up by pass and run, then watch the other team struggle to come back via the pass game. And then all hell breaks loose for the Fresno State offense. I see Carr struggling a lot with one of the nation’s best, most underrated defenses.
