Carey Price was booed. Phil Kessel was cheered. Denis Grebeshkov pulled a fast one.
When the dust settled on the 2008-09 season, Price, Kessel and Grebeshkov finished with varying degrees of achievement. One of them met expectations. Another exceeded them. And one was overly disappointing.
Grebeshkov was overlooked on the Oilers' blue line as last season kicked off with players like Lubomir Visnovsky, Sheldon Souray and Tom Gilbert casting a big shadow. A lot of people didn't care about Grebeshkov's career-high 18 points in 2007-08 or the fact he was finally starting to hit stride as a pro. But for those few brave souls who took a flier on the Russian defender on Draft Day, they were rewarded with a great sleeper pick as Grebeshkov finished the season as the 30th best scorer among Fantasy defensemen.
For years, the Bruins and hockey analysts waited for Kessel, often lauded as the U.S.'s version of Sidney Crosby, to reach his potential. After battling cancer, Kessel began to regain his form and even posted 19 goals in 2007-08. The '08-09 season provided the opportunity for Kessel to have a breakout performance. He did just that.
Kessel had six or more goals in each of the first three months and 39 points in his first 37 games. Once again the injury bug caught up to Kessel, but he still posted new career highs in goals (36), assists (24), points (60) and plus-minus (23).
As for Price, perhaps the Patrick Roy comparisons are just too much for any Montreal goalie to handle. The Canadiens have been searching for a franchise netminder since Roy was traded to Colorado during the 1995-96 season. Some of the names to blow through town have been Tomas Vokoun, Jose Theodore, Jocelyn Thibault, Mathieu Garon and Cristobal Huet. Only Theodore remained with the Canadiens for more than a few seasons, but even he couldn't live up to the enormous expectations.
Montreal thought they had a lost cause on their hands until Price put on the pads in '07-08. He unseated Huet in net and posted a 24-12-3 record with 2.56 goals-against-average, .920 save percentage and three shutouts in 41 games. The best news of all was that the 2005 first-round pick (fifth overall) would only be 21 years old when the '08-09 season began.
While Price did make the All-Star team last season, it was definitely a bust of a campaign as an ankle injury hindered his progress in the second half. He would win one less game in '08-09 than in his rookie season despite the fact he appeared in 11 more contests. After the Canadiens were swept in the first-round of the playoffs by Boston, the Montreal fans rained down a chorus of boos at Price. Still, the Montreal front office is not ready to give up on the youngster.
Every Fantasy season brings us our fair share of surprises and disappointments. It's part of the battle when evaluating talent on Draft Day. While it is not a fine science, we brave the minefields in search of the Kessels and Grebeshkovs while looking to avoid the Prices of the Fantasy Hockey world.
As we inch closer toward opening night, we would like to share with you our list of potential Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts for the 2009-10 season.
Sleepers
Ville Leino, LW, Detroit
2008-09 stats: 13 games,
five goals, four assists, nine points, plus-5, six penalty minutes
Leino
was the consolation prize for the Red Wings last summer when they lost
out on the Fabian Brunnstrom
sweepstakes. They might not have landed the top overseas import, but
they got a pretty special player in Leino, who was MVP on the Finnish
Elite League in '07-08. Since Detroit always seems to have a plethora of
talent, Detroit didn't have to rush Leino to the NHL. They allowed him
to mature in the minors, where he had 15 goals and 46 points in 57 games
with Grand Rapids of the AHL. When Leino did appear in the NHL, head
coach Mike Babcock commented that all the Finnish forward did was score.
Detroit is expected to put Leino's talents to good use in '09-10 after
losing a few defectors in free agency. Gone are Marian Hossa, Jiri Hudler, Mikael Samuelsson and Tomas Kopecky.
They combined for 187 points.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 74
games, 19 goals, 30 assists, 49 points, plus-8, 28 penalty minutes
Jonathan Ericsson, D, Detroit
2008-09 stats: 19
games, one goal, three assists, four points, minus-1, 15 penalty minutes
Detroit
is probably the best run organization in hockey, and Ericsson is a
testament to that. Ericsson has worked his way from being a 2002
ninth-round pick to one of the Red Wings' prized prospects. He would
have played more than 19 games last season had he not dealt with a
nagging wrist injury in the minors. Babcock can't say enough about
Ericsson's talents, pointing to the fact that he is can't miss prospect
since he skates so well for someone who is 6-4, 206 pounds. We saw what
Babcock was talking about when Ericsson totaled four goals, eight points
and a plus-9 rating in 22 playoff games last season. The Red Wings
already have a pretty solid defensive rotation with Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Brad Stuart and Niklas Kronwall.
However, all four of those guys were around in the playoffs and Ericsson
still found ways to be disruptive. He likely has a roster spot thanks to Andreas Lilja's lingering concussion.
Projected 2009-10 stats:
75 games, five goals, 22 assists, 27 points, plus-5, 92 penalty minutes
Zach Bogosian, D, Atlanta
2008-09 stats: 47
games, nine goals, 10 assists, 19 points, plus-11, 47 penalty minutes
The
2008 first-round pick (third overall) came on late during his rookie
season. He didn't get to play a full season since he broke his leg early
in the year, but once Bogosian worked on his conditioning, the hockey
came naturally. The 6-2, 200-pound blueliner had no points in his first
11 games, but finished with nine goals and 19 points over his last 36
contests. That's solid production from a defenseman but outstanding
numbers from a then 18-year-old blueliner. Atlanta did add Pavel Kubina in the offseason, but Bogosian is still the future in
Atlanta. It's not like Kubina's presence is a bad thing either. He is
going to help create more scoring chances for Bogosian, and as long as
the 19-year-old defenseman is healthy, his numbers should only get
better.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 70 games, 14 goals, 20
assists, 34 points, plus-8, 70 penalty minutes
Jonas Gustavsson, G, Toronto
2008-09 stats: 42
games, record unknown, 1.96 goals-against-average, .932 save percentage,
three shutouts (Swedish Elite League)
Better known as "The Monster,"
Gustavsson was the prize overseas import in this free-agent class. He
was coveted by many teams, including the Stars, Sharks and Avalanche,
but ultimately signed with Toronto since the Maple Leafs give him the
best chance to play and possibly start. Toronto was in the market for
goalie depth after Vesa Toskala
struggled mightily last season and eventually exited due to injury. The
Maple Leafs were not happy with the production from Curtis Joseph, Justin Pogge and Martin Gerber. Toskala, who is entering the final season of his
contract, is still technically Toronto's starting goalie, but the Maple
Leafs didn't bring Gustavsson in to sit around. They want him to
challenge for the starting job after he led Farjestads (SEL) to a league
championship last season. Gustavsson recently underwent minor heart
surgery after feeling dizzy during an early training camp session, but
it's not expected to keep him sidelined when the season opens. Toronto
head coach Ron Wilson has gone as far as to call Gustavsson the "best
goaltender outside of the NHL" and reaffirmed that "he will play for us
this year."
Projected 2009-10 stats: 35 games, 16-13-4,
2.60 GAA, 850 saves, .909 save percentage
Claude Giroux, RW, Philadelphia
2008-09 stats: 42
games, nine goals, 18 assists, 27 points, plus-10, 14 penalty minutes
A
lot of attention was focused on Giroux when training camp opened last
season. Philadelphia really wanted to see if he could make the jump from
junior hockey to the big time. Unfortunately, Giroux struggled in camp
and started the year in the AHL. It ended up being a great move for the
young forward. He adapted to the pro game in the minors and was more
than ready when he got his call to the show. Giroux did his best work
down the stretch. He had 16 points (five goals) in his last 21
regular-season games and added five points (two goals) in six playoff
contests. There has been some talk of Giroux opening the season as a
third-line center, but it would better serve the Flyers and Giroux if
the 5-11, 180-pound forward opens the season as a right winger.
Philadelphia needs some scorers on the right side of the ice after
losing Joffrey Lupul (25 goals) and Mike Knuble (27 goals). Giroux has skated early in training camp on
the wing alongside Danny Briere and
rookie James vanRiemsdyk. Giroux was a
constant 100-point threat as a junior hockey player, so he definitely
has some sick offensive skills.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 77
games, 21 goals, 29 assists, 50 points, plus-14, 28 penalty minutes
Other potential sleepers: Columbus C Derick Brassard; Detroit RWs Todd Bertuzzi and Jason Williams; Colorado D Tom Preissing; Buffalo C Tim Connolly; Maple Leafs LW Alexei Ponikarovsky; Boston C Patrice Bergeron; Philadelphia G Ray Emery; N.Y. Rangers C Vaclav Prospal; Blues C Andy McDonald; Hurricanes C Rod Brind'Amour; Calgary LW Rene Bourque; Blues D Erik Johnson; Blues LW Paul Kariya; Montreal C Tomas Plekanec; Canucks RW Steve Bernier; Capitals C Brendan Morrison; Phoenix RWs Peter Mueller and Radim Vrbata; Hurricanes C Matt Cullen; Tampa Bay LW Alex Tanguay; Florida D Ville Koistinen; Predators LW Steve Sullivan; Senators G Pascal Leclaire
Breakouts
Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay
2008-09 stats: 79
games, 23 goals, 23 assists, 46 points, minus-13, 39 penalty minutes
It's
hard to rip a guy that set a Tampa Bay rookie record with 23 goals,
breaking the mark of Vincent Lecavalier.
However, Stamkos still underachieved in '08-09 after being the No. 1
pick in last year's draft. Stamkos didn't hit his stride until late in
the season when coach Rick Tocchet put him on a strict conditioning
regimen. Still, that late-season outburst gives us hope that Stamkos is
ready to emerge as an elite Fantasy option in '09-10. Stamkos posted 27
points (17 goals) in his final 32 games. He really thrived playing on a
line with Martin St. Louis and Ryan Malone. Tocchet is likely to keep the trio together this
season, but even if he has to move Stamkos around, we feel the
19-year-old forward is going to deliver the goods.
Projected
2009-10 stats: 82 games, 32 goals, 30 assists, 62 points, minus-8,
46 penalty minutes
Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh
2008-09 stats: 74
games, 10 goals, 23 assists, 33 points, minus-7, 24 penalty minutes
You
could technically count the 2008-09 season as a breakout campaign for
Letang, however, much like Stamkos he fell way short of expectations.
Letang was expected to be the offensive leader on the blue line when Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney began
the season on injured reserve. While he was good, he wasn't outstanding
and the Penguins definitely missed their offensive blueliners. Luckily,
Letang eventually settled into a rhythm. He really responded to the
coaching of Dan Bylsma after he took over for Michel Therrien and the
tutoring of Gonchar. Letang finished the season with 14 points (five
goals) in his final 19 regular-season games. He also had 13 points (four
goals) in 24 playoff games. Talk about great production from a
defenseman. Letang is heading into a walk year, so unless he inks a
long-term extension any time soon, he has a little extra motivation.
Projected
2009-10 stats: 80 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, minus-3,
28 penalty minutes
Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles
2008-09 stats: 81
games, six goals, 21 assists, 27 points, minus-17, 56 penalty minutes
When
Los Angeles invested a first-round pick (second overall) on Doughty in
2008, it was thought of as a selection for the future. Not many
18-year-old blueliners get an immediate call to the NHL, but thanks to
the development of the Russian super league (KHL), more and more
youngsters are getting the chance to make the jump from junior hockey to
the NHL. Not only did Doughty make that jump, he ended up being the
Kings' top-logging defenseman. He played in all situations and did
pretty well outside of a minus-17 rating. However, his defense is only
expected to improve. Fantasy owners are most concerned with Doughty's
offensive talents, which are also on the rise. He finished last season
with two goals and nine points in his final 21 games. The Kings added a
defensive guru in Rob Scuderi this
offseason and hope to have Jack Johnson
on the ice for a full season. The team's offense was also given a boost
with the addition of Ryan Smyth. Los
Angeles is a team to watch in the Western Conference and that makes
Doughty a breakout candidate.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 82
games, nine goals, 28 assists, 37 points, minus-12, 68 penalty minutes
T.J. Oshie, C, St. Louis
2008-09 stats: 57 games,
14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points, plus-16, 30 penalty minutes
The
Blues have been very patient with Oshie, a 2005 first-round pick. They
let the Washington native attend the University of North Dakota for
three years before he finally turned pro last season. While Oshie
projects long term as a center, St. Louis allowed him to play on the
wing at times in '08-09 to help with his transition to the NHL.
Unfortunately, it didn't help Oshie become less prone to injury as he
missed several weeks last season with a high-ankle sprain. Once he
returned to the ice full-time in late December, Oshie showcased the kind
of skills that made him a first-round selection. Oshie notched 35 points
(12 goals) in his last 45 games and had 15 points (10 assists) in his
last 17 contests. He was also named Rookie of the Month for March after
posting four goals, nine assists and a plus-6 rating in 14 games. Oshie
posted an even or better marker in 48 of 57 games and ranked second on
the Blues with a plus-16 rating. Had he produced like that for a full
season, he might have won the Calder Trophy (top rookie). The Blues are
Western Conference contenders and will only get to the playoffs if their
younger talent, like Oshie, continue to improve.
Projected 2009-10
stats: 80 games, 20 goals, 35 assists, 55 points, plus-18, 42
penalty minutes
Antoine Vermette, C, Columbus
2008-09 stats: 79
games, 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points, minus-7, 50 penalty minutes
Vermette
had visions of a 40-goal campaign last season. This coming after he
posted career highs in goals (24), assists (29) and points (53) in
'07-08. Unfortunately, Vermette fell way short of his expectations. He
really struggled, like many Senators, under Craig Hartsburg and only
showed slight improvement once Cory Clouston took over behind the bench.
He became expendable at the trade deadline, however, and Columbus
general manager Scott Howson was more than happy to welcome in the
five-year veteran. Howson was in dire need of a second-line center after Derick Brassard suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in December.
The change of scenery really benefited Vermette, who had seven goals and
13 points in 17 games with the Blue Jackets. Brassard is finally healthy
in 2009-10, but Vermette is expected to keep his role as a second-line
center and Columbus showed their commitment to the Quebec native with a
five-year extension. Maybe bounce-back candidate is more appropriate for
Vermette, but the 60-point threshold is a possibility.
Projected
2009-10 stats: 82 games, 25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points, minus-3,
54 penalty minutes
Other potential breakouts: Dallas LW Fabian Brunnstrom; N.Y. Islanders RW Kyle Okposo; Colorado G Craig Anderson; Boston RW Blake Wheeler; Phoenix C Matthew Lombardi; Edmonton C Sam Gagner; Panthers C Michael Frolik; Penguins D Alex Goligoski; Predators RW Patric Hornqvist; Ottawa C Ryan Shannon; Ottawa LW Nick Foligno; Thrashers C Rich Peverley
Busts
Zach Parise, LW, New Jersey
2008-09 stats: 82
games, 45 goals, 49 assists, 94 points, plus-30, 24 penalty minutes
We
are probably going to take a lot of heat for tabbing Parise as a bust,
but with defensive-minded Jacques Lemaire taking over behind the bench
in New Jersey, we just don't feel Parise will be able to meet or exceed
last year's totals. During his eight-year tenure as Wild head coach,
only two players broke 70 points in a season. Brian Rolston was the first to do it in 2005-06 (79) and then Marian Gaborik set a franchise record with 83 points in '07-08. While
Lemaire has had a lot of 30-goal scorers in his coaching career -- and
we feel Parise will reach that benchmark for a fourth straight season --
the fact remains not many of Lemaire's teams have led the league in
scoring. Parise, who was the third-best Fantasy scorer among forwards
last season, will likely be drafted in the first round this season. We
just aren't sure if he is going to be among the top 10 Fantasy forwards
by season's end.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 82 games, 34 goals,
39 assists, 73 points, plus-14, 29 penalty minutes
Nikolai Khabibulin, G, Edmonton
2008-09 stats: 42
games, 25-8-7, 2.33 GAA, .919 save percentage, three shutouts, 1,096
saves (with Chicago)
The Blackhawks initially wanted to run
Khabibulin out of town prior to '08-09 since they signed Cristobal Huet in the offseason. The Blackhawks just couldn't find any
takers. Chicago eventually changed its tune and were excited to have
Khabibulin in town. He became coach Joel Quenneville's preferred goalie
when healthy, but injuries were a big reason why Khabibulin appeared in
just 42 games. Still, he was outstanding during his walk year and cashed
in with a four-year contract from the Oilers. It's interesting Edmonton
invested so much time and money into a fragile 36-year-old goalie. The
fact remains that Khabibulin hasn't played more than 55 games in four of
the last five seasons. Edmonton better be prepared to lean on youngster Jeff Drouin-Deslaurie. Also, while Edmonton has a new coach (Pat
Quinn) behind the bench, they still aren't considered top contenders
like Chicago. Khabibulin could have some very trying nights. Add to the
fact that last year he was also motivated to land one final long-term
deal, what is going to push him this season?
Projected 2009-10
stats: 55 games, 26-20-6, 2.57 GAA, .907 save percentage, two
shutouts, 1,353 saves
Alexander Edler, D, Vancouver
2008-09 stats: 80
games, 10 goals, 27 points, 37 points, plus-11, 54 penalty minutes
It
was a pleasant surprise to see Edler among the top 30 Fantasy defensemen
in '08-09. He became a breakout Fantasy player last season as he reached
double-digit goals for the first time in his career, as well as posting
career highs in assists and points. He became one of the Canucks' top
two-way defenders and logged a lot of valuable power-play time. While
Edler should be among the Canucks' top-four defensemen in '09-10, we are
a little less excited about his outlook after Vancouver added Mathieu Schneider and Christian Ehrhoff
late in the offseason. Both players will cut into Edler's point
production, especially Schneider, who is a power-play specialist. Don't
forget Edler still has to fight for points with holdovers Sami Salo, Kevin Bieksa and Willie Mitchell.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 82 games, 12
goals, 29 assists, 41 points, plus-14, 58 penalty minutes
Loui Eriksson, LW, Dallas
2008-09 stats: 82
games, 36 goals, 27 assists, 63 points, plus-14, 14 penalty minutes
Eriksson
really bailed out the Stars in 2008-09 after Brenden Morrow went down early in the season with a torn ACL. He
replaced Morrow as the top-line scoring presence and led Dallas with 36
goals. It was a career campaign for Eriksson, but he really didn't get
going until Morrow went down. Morrow is back at 100 percent and ready to
return to his spot at left wing on the top line. Also going against
Eriksson is the addition of coach Marc Crawford. Is he going to use the
Swedish forward in a different role than Dave Tippett? It could be tough
for Eriksson to reach 30 goals again.
Projected 2009-10 stats:
82 games, 29 goals, 30 assists, 59 points, plus-8, 32 penalty minutes
Joffrey Lupul, RW, Anaheim
2008-09 stats: 79
games, 25 goals, 25 assists, 50 points, plus-1, 58 penalty minutes (with
Philadelphia)
Lupul is back for his second stint in Anaheim. The
Ducks made the 6-1, 200-pound forward the seventh pick in the 2002 NHL
draft, and Lupul spent two years with Anaheim before being traded to
Edmonton in 2006 as part of the deal that brought Chris Pronger to town. And wouldn't you know it, Lupul and Pronger
crossed paths again this offseason. This time Pronger was dealt to
Philadelphia as Anaheim reacquired Lupul. The 25-year-old forward gives
Anaheim another proven scoring threat, however, Lupul is not coming in
to carry the team. He might also have to play out of position since
Anaheim already has Corey Perry and Teemu Selanne at right wing. Lupul is too good to play below the
second line, so he might have to join Bobby Ryan,
who is also a natural right winger, on the left side of the ice. Not
only does Lupul have to contend for points with those three talents, but Ryan Getzlaf, Saku Koivu, Scott Niedermayer and Ryan Whitney
are a few other names that could steal scoring chances. Lupul has
admitted to being an inconsistent player and knows he is not being asked
to lead the offensive charge.
Projected 2009-10 stats: 80
games, 19 goals, 24 assists, 43 points, even, 50 penalty minutes
Other potential busts: Devils LW Patrik Elias; Canucks LW Alexandre Burrows; Ducks C Saku Koivu; Toronto RW Phil Kessel; Chicago RW Kris Versteeg; St. Louis RW David Backes; Flyers C Jeff Carter; Los Angeles LW Ryan Smyth; Red Wings D Niklas Kronwall; Senators D Filip Kuba
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