This is the sixth and final entry in a series of articles, where we will attempt to accurately project the top three lines for each team in the NHL's Northeast Division, factoring in all the offseason activity as well as players that might be changing roles or moving up from the minors, college or junior ranks. As most would agree, offensive output virtually always equates to opportunity. The players on the top two lines usually get significantly more ice time and power-play ice-time which leads to better output. Opportunities will come for third-line forwards when injuries, trades, and/or slumps occur. That's why it's imperative to know who's on the third line and which of those third-liners have the requisite upside should second-line duty call.
The final section for each team will include a ranking of their top four fantasy forwards (TFFF) in addition to the most attractive seventh forward fantasy-wise for each team if/when injuries hit.
(All stats for the 2009-10 NHL season unless otherwise noted)
Boston Bruins
Milan Lucic - Patrice Bergeron
- Nathan Horton
Joe Colborne - David Krejci - Michael Ryder
Blake Wheeler - Tyler Seguin - Mark Recchi
Injured top-6 forwards: Marc Savard, Marco Sturm
Things are cloudy now as far as forecasting the top three lines, as both Marc Savard (concussion, missed most of last season due to it but returned during the playoffs, symptoms have re-emerged) and Marco Sturm (knee surgery/won't get back into the lineup until sometime in late November or December) are currently out indefinitely. Savard is still worth a pick in the later rounds of most fantasy drafts despite the injury. However, with Savard's status now murky the first Bruin center drafted in most fantasy leagues should be Krejci.
Another top six forward - Milan Lucic - is returning from a woeful season in which he was never a hundred percent after suffering a high ankle sprain early in the season. Lucic is the best left wing in Boston and, no matter his center, should see plenty of ice time at regular strength and on the power play. Lucic has a lot to prove after last season and he's being heavily discounted in fantasy drafts.
The Bruins picked up a young power forward in Nathan Horton when they dispatched defenseman Dennis Wideman to Florida over the summer. Horton is an upgrade over a fading Ryder, whose contract two summers ago had many experts shaking their heads. There is even some belief among Bruins followers that Ryder could be sent down to the minors if he fails to impress in camp and exhibition season. This scenario could only unfold if youngsters such as Seguin and Colborne have impressive exhibition seasons.
Seguin, the 2nd overall pick in June's NHL draft who was expected to move to the wing and push for a top-9 role, is back at center with Savard's setback. Colborne is also a former first-round pick (16th overall in '08) that plays center. Colborne's best chance to break camp with the B's may involve moving the big-bodied (6-5/190) Calgary native to wing so that he can play a North-South style and play physical on the wall. With 22 goals and 41 points in 39 games last season for the University of Denver, Colborne has decent hands.
TFFF: Horton, Krejci, Lucic, Bergeron
Best 7th forward: Recchi
Buffalo Sabres
Thomas Vanek - Derek Roy - Jason Pominville
Tyler Ennis - Tim Connolly - Drew Stafford
Jochen Hecht - Rob Niedermayer - Mike Grier
Top-9 candidate: Nathan Gerbe
The Sabres had very little roster turnover during the offseason, with the largest change occurring on defense, where two regulars - Henrik Tallider and Toni Lydman - are being replaced by newcomers Jordan Leopold and Shaone Morrisonn. At forward Niedermayer joined the team and should be lining up as the third center.
Despite the lack of big-name additions at forward there are several things to be encouraged about Buffalo's offense. For one, Connolly was able to play 73 games last season. The talented center, who was drafted 5th overall in '99 and played 81 games for the Islanders that year as an 18-year-old, has averaged only 33 games a season for the previous three campaigns prior to 2009-10 due to concussions. Suffice to say that having him in the lineup makes a huge difference to the club's offensive potency.
Another thing to be encouraged about is Tyler Ennis playing a full year in Buffalo and what he brings to the team. The diminutive (5-9/170) forward has scored at every level: the WHL (115 goals/236 points in 245 games), the AHL (23 goals/65 points in 63 games), and even his brief stint last spring in the NHL (3 goals/9 points in 10 games). The 20-year-old is slated to play left wing with Connolly. Who plays right wing is still not totally clear, as Drew Stafford was terrible last season (14 goals/34 points in 71 games). Drafted 13th overall in 2004, Stafford had been progressing nicely (13 goals in Year 1, 16 goals in Year 2, 20 goals in Year 3) before last season's disappointment. The right-winger is still just 24 so the Sabres have to remain optimistic and show some confidence in the young man. The team needs a big right wing to play on the second line, as neither Connolly nor Ellis play a physical brand of hockey. Stafford's size (6-1/216) is needed. If he can't get his game back in order then the team may just turn to a grinder to play on the right side of the second line, either Grier or Patrick Kaleta.
Like Ellis, Gerbe is an exciting yet small player (5-6/180) and like Ellis, Gerbe has good pedigree as a former NCAA Frozen Four MVP (07'-08') and AHL Rookie of the Year (08'-09'). Unlike Ellis, Gerbe may have to wait for an injury to get a top-9 opportunity because it is highly unlikely that the Sabres would ice a line of Connolly, Ellis and Gerbe due to a combined lack of size and physical prowess. However, with 41 goals and 94 points in 103 career AHL games, it doesn't make much sense to send him back to the “A”. Either way, Gerbe is a player to keep an eye on should he get a shot at a top-6 gig.
TFFF: Vanek, Roy, Pominville, Connolly
Best 7th forward: Gerbe
Montreal Canadiens
Mike Cammalleri - Tomas Plekanec
- Andrei Kostitsyn
Benoit Pouliot - Scott Gomez - Brian Gionta
Travis Moen/Dustin Boyd - Jeff Halpern - Tom Pyatt
Top-9 candidates: Lars Eller, Mathieu Darche, Max Pacioretty, Alexander Avtsin
The Habs have only one spot open on the top 6 - the left wing spot on the Gomez line. While Pouliot is listed there, he remains somewhat of a mystery to the Canadiens brass. Is he the guy who scored 15 goals in 39 games for Montreal last season after his trade from Minnesota or is he the guy who had just two points and zero goals in 18 playoff games for Montreal last spring? Bottom line: he's still just 24, he just got a big raise and he will likely get first crack at the left flank position on the Gomez-Gionta line.
If you're looking for a darkhorse candidate to take the left wing spot on Gomez's line, look no further than Eller, the main return that Montreal received when they traded (gave away?) Jaroslav Halak to St. Louis last June. Eller is a 21-year-old Dane who was named to the AHL's All-Rookie team last spring. The 13th pick overall in 2007, Eller scored 18 goals and 57 points in 70 games last season for Peoria. He also had 84 penalty minutes so he doesn't shy away from physical play and there's certainly a need for a player like that on the second line with the 5-11 Gomez and 5-7 Gionta. The year before Eller scored 12 goals and 29 points in 48 games for Frolunda of the Swedish Elite league so the kid's got two full seasons of pro hockey in him and he won't turn 22 until next May. The team will want to save face after trading away their 2010 playoff hero in Halak, so putting Eller on the second line (and second PP unit) would give him a chance to put up some numbers and make the trade seem not so one-sided.
If the second line left wing isn't Pouliot or Eller it could be the newcomer Boyd. Boyd, who the Habs got in return from Nashville for getting rid of malcontent Sergei Kostitsyn, had been projected to be the third-line center for Montreal this coming season until the team signed long-time NHL center Jeff Halpern just before the opening of training camp. Boyd can also play left wing so he will do so either on the second or third line. Boyd has scored 11 goals in each of the past two seasons.
Last year the talk was about how Pacioretty could make an impact on the top 9. That didn't happen as the 21-year-old New Canaan, CT, native couldn't score in the NHL (3 goals in 52 games for Montreal) or the AHL (2 goals in 18 games for Hamilton). It seems like a full year in the AHL is in order for Max-Pac, for the former first-round pick, taken 22nd overall in 2007, needs to rediscover his scoring touch and get his confidence back.
This year the deep sleeper to crack the top 9 could be Avtsin, the young Russian drafted 109th overall in 2009. Avtsin, 19, has pro size (6-2/220) and has already played a year in the KHL for Moscow Dynamo. The year before he tore up the Russian third tier league, recording 56 goals and 110 points in 76 regular season games with the Moscow Dynamo-2, while also racking up 130 penalty minutes. Avstin could be the ultimate replacement for Kostitsyn, who's been a big disappointment since signing a three-year deal in 2008. Kostitsyn's brother has already been jettisoned and the older brother needs to stop the three-year decline (26 goals/53 points in 78 games in 07-08, 23 goals/41 points in 71 games in 08-09, 15 goals/33 points in 59 games in 09-10) or else the Habs may not bother to try to re-sign him when his contract is up after this season.
Among the other top-9 candidates Moen and Pyatt are strictly grinders while the 33-year-old Darche has only scored 13 goals/34 points in 130 career NHL games after establishing himself as a scorer in the AHL (212 goals/443 points in 552 games).
Ottawa Senators
Nick Foligno - Jason Spezza - Daniel Alfredsson
Milan Michalek/Peter Regin - Mike Fisher - Alexei Kovalev
Jarkko Ruutu - Chris Kelly - Chris Neil
Top-9 candidates: Bobby Butler, Zach Smith, Ryan Shannon
The Sens have some roster battles looming in camp. The most interesting one involves three left wings and two spots on the top 6. Foligno, Michalek and Regin are all vying for a left wing spot on the top two lines. While Foligno doesn't offer much upside fantasy-wise (32 goals/67 points in 187 NHL games), the other two could be 50-to-60 point producers this season if they can play a full season on the top six. Michalek has gone from prime fantasy prospect, with four 20-goal seasons already on his resume and still just 25, to decent fantasy prospect with an injury risk associated with him as he missed 16 games last season with an assortment of ailments. Before the 2009-10 season, he had only missed 11 games in the four previous seasons combined. Like the No. 2 right winger in Ottawa - Kovalev - Michalek tore his left ACL in April (April 15th).
Regin is a player on the upswing who could flourish this season if given a spot on the top 6. The 24-year-old Dane finished last season strong with eight points in the last ten regular season games then he bagged three goals in six playoff games. He followed that up with seven points in seven games while playing for Denmark at the 2010 World Championships in Germany last May. While all three of them are big - Foligno (6-0/209), Michalek (6-2/225) Regin (6-2/200) - and can play physical hockey, only two of them could be relevant on most fantasy teams this coming season.
When your top two right wings are both 37-years-old, it's good to have a possible replacement and eventual successor. Though they only missed a combined 17 games last season Alfie and Kovy are not getting any younger. Moreover, Kovalev is recovering from a torn ACL to his left knee that happened April 10th. Butler, 23, could be an eventual replacement or at least be an injury fill-in this season. He led the NCAA in goals last year with 29 goals scored and 53 points in 39 games. Butler may not get to start the season on the top 9 but he will get his chance at some point during the year.
TFFF: Spezza, Alfredsson, Michalak, Fisher
Best 7th forward: Kelly
Toronto Maple Leafs
Kris Versteeg - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel
Nikolai Kulemin - Mikhail Grabovski - Clarke MacArthur
Luca Caputi - Tim Brent - Colby Armstrong
While it remains to be seen as to whether or not Bozak is a true No. 1 NHL center, he did show some chemistry with Kessel last season and he'll begin the new campaign in the same spot. Kessel is easily the best forward on the Buds and he's perhaps the only Leafs forward that will get drafted in standard 12-team leagues that start 2 C's, 2 LW's and 2 RW's. Kessel's 30 goals/55 points in 70 games weren't bad for his first year in Toronto and the minus-8 isn't bad either considering how horrible the Leafs were last year. Kessel is the real deal when it comes to goal scoring, as he's scored an average of 28 goals per season over the last three seasons (with a low of 19 and a high of 36) and the four-year veteran has only missed 36 games in his four seasons. This is pretty impressive production and durability for a player who will only turn 23 in October.
Other than Kessel, Versteeg and Kulemin are the most intriguing Leaf wingers from a fantasy perspective. The first reason is the most obvious for Vertseeg - he's now playing on the first line with Kessel. Moreover, his speed will create space for Kessel and there's been instant chemistry among the trio. Kulemin's shine isn't quite as strong now that he's on the second line but there's still reason for optimism and a roster spot in deeper leagues as he's big (6-1/225), he's young (24), and he's talented (drafted 44th overall in 06'). He was deemed talented enough to play for Russia's stacked team at the 2010 World Championships and he did well with three goals and five points in nine games along with a solid plus-6 defensive rating. There's ample reason to believe that Kulemin will enjoy his first 20-goal season in 2010-11.
The performance of the second line of Kulemin-Grabovski-MacArthur in preseason is giving the Leafs faithful hope that they won't be a one-line team this year. MacArthur has averaged 17 goals over the past two seasons and the Leafs can certainly use the help, as they finished 25th in scoring last year with 2.56 goals per game. Armstrong, another newcomer who can score 15-20 goals and play under the opponent's skin, is the cornerstone of the third line where he's expected to be centered by Tim Brent - the story of Leafs' camp, as he vastly outplayed and out-hustled the rookie Nazim Kadri, drafted 7th overall in 2009. Caputi is a former 50-goal scorer in junior who is still just 21. He scored 23 goals and 47 points in 53 AHL games last year but has yet to prove himself as a scorer at the NHL level with just 3 goals/9 points in 28 career games. Sjostrom doesn't have Caputi's scoring ability but coach Wilson wants the third line to cause more havic than scoring chances so once Sjostrom is healthy, he's expected to bounce Caputi off of the third line.
The Leafs keep talking about how truculent their team will be and additions like known-pests Versteeg, Armstrong, and Sjostrom will certainly add to that but the fact remains that this team is woefully short on true NHL top-6 talent.
TFFF: Kessel, Versteeg, Bozak (60-point upside), Kulemin
Best 7th forward: Armstrong