Correctly predicting which players are going to enjoy a breakout season is one of the best ways to add value to your fantasy team, but before we dive into who should be on your radar to make that kind of leap, we need to first clarify what a breakout candidate is in this context after having previously recommended sleeper picks.
While there can be crossover between sleeper and breakout candidates, when discussing players due for a breakout specifically, the focus is on lesser-known or under-the-radar options who haven't yet enjoyed meaningful fantasy relevancy but are now in a position for that to change. For example, Victor Olofsson and Viktor Arvidsson are coming off difficult campaigns and primed for a strong season, but while both were cited in the sleeper article, they have too much prior notability to qualify for the breakout candidate article. Breakout candidates will also tend to skew a bit younger than their sleeper counterparts, but a well-positioned veteran can also be due for a breakout season.
Jack Quinn, RW, Buffalo Sabres
Quinn gave the Sabres a taste of what he could do in 2022-23 when he scored 14 goals and 37 points in 75 contests. He might have followed that up with a step forward last season, but lower-body issues limited him to 27 contests. Still, he showed promise when healthy, contributing nine goals and 19 points in 2023-24. With his injury issues hopefully behind him, Quinn is penciled in to serve on the top six and factor into the Sabres' power-play plans. He's got plenty of offensive upside after being taken with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and excelling in the OHL and minors -- he had 61 points in 45 contests with AHL Rochester in 2021-22 before cementing his spot with Buffalo. There's the potential here for him to reach the 20-goal and 50-point marks this season if all goes well.
Daniil Miromanov, D, Calgary Flames
In contrast to Quinn and some of the other players on this list, Miromanov has never been seen as a high-end prospect, and at the age of 27, he's a bit too old to be regarded in that light now. He was never drafted and has taken a long path to where he is today, including a stint in the ECHL in 2018-19 and time in the KHL. From 2021-22 through 2023-24, he accumulated 49 NHL games in which he recorded five goals and 14 points while also seeing stints where he excelled offensively in the AHL. However, this could be the year when it all comes together. The retooling Flames acquired him in March as part of the Noah Hanifin trade. When given an opportunity to play regularly, Miromanov took advantage, scoring three goals and seven points in 20 outings with Calgary while averaging 21:15 of ice time. Calgary is likely to give him plenty of ice time this season and work on the power play. Given what he did in his short stint with the Flames last season, he might turn some heads.
Dustin Wolf, G, Calgary Flames
Wolf didn't exactly impress with Calgary last season, posting a 7-7-1 record, 3.15 GAA, and .893 save percentage in 17 games, but the 23-year-old has looked far better at the AHL level with a 2.29 GAA and a .926 save percentage across 141 career contests. Paired with Dan Vladar, Wolf might get most of the Flames' starts this season. That's not an assignment that's likely to lead to a ton of wins -- Calgary might not be in a full rebuild, but it is a team in the middle of a transition -- but it wouldn't be surprising to see his GAA and save percentage meaningfully improve compared to his limited opportunities with the team last season. If you're looking to add one extra goaltender toward the end of a standard league fantasy draft, Wolf possesses enough upside to be worthy of consideration.
Lukas Reichel, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is swimming in promising prospects, but one whose stock has fallen somewhat is Reichel. He left plenty to be desired in 2023-24, recording just five goals and 16 points across 65 contests. It was especially disappointing because going into the campaign, there was some thought that he might develop chemistry with Connor Bedard. By contrast, expectations for Reichel are far smaller this year. No longer penciled in as a possible linemate for Bedard, Reichel might instead open 2024-25 on the third unit. Still, he shouldn't be ruled out. He has a lot of upside, and some growing pains aren't shocking to see in a player who turned 22 in May. Reichel isn't someone to draft if you're in a standard league, but his potential to confound critics is high enough to make him worthy of keeping a close eye. If there's one silver lining from his 2023-24 campaign, it's that he's fallen off a lot of people's radar, which should make it easier for you to scoop him up should he start to hit his stride.
Kirby Dach, C, Montreal Canadiens
Shifting from a prospect who might still blossom with Chicago to one who never quite worked out with the Blackhawks, Dach was given new life when shipped to Montreal. Unfortunately, injuries have gotten in the way of any potential breakout, and that was especially the case in 2023-24. He logged just two contests due to a knee injury. If he can stay healthy -- and admittedly, his history makes it hard to count on him staying in the lineup -- he might end up as the highest-scoring player on this list. Taken with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, Dach is likely to get a chance to play alongside premiere goalscorer Patrik Laine, who will simultaneously be aiming to bounce back in 2024-25 after logging just 18 contests last year.
Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators
Pinto missed the first 41 games of the 2023-24 campaign because he was serving a suspension for violating the NHL's sports wagering rules. When he came back, he was fantastic, scoring eight goals and 25 points in 30 contests before hitting a rough patch with just two points over his final 11 appearances. Pinto was somewhat hot and cold in 2022-23 as well, which isn't a particularly unusual issue for a young player to have. Now 23 years old, with 140 career NHL games under his belt, the New York native should be getting comfortable. If he can perform at a consistent level, then he'll easily hit new heights this year.
Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers
Like everyone on this list, Drysdale isn't without his risks. Although he did have 32 points in 2021-22, injuries have kept him from coming even close to that mark since. Taken by Anaheim with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, Drysdale is now with Philadelphia, where he'll have a shot at a fresh start. It remains to be seen if he can stay healthy, and a spot on the power play isn't guaranteed, but the 22-year-old's upside makes him one of the most interesting defensemen to watch going into the campaign.
Drew O'Connor, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins
The 26-year-old set career highs last season with 16 goals and 33 points in 79 contests with Pittsburgh, but perhaps he'll do even better this year. The reason why that might happen is that O'Connor got to play alongside Sidney Crosby after Jake Guentzel was dealt in March. After Pittsburgh didn't sign a replacement for Guentzel's services over the summer, the stage seems to be set for O'Connor to spend the full 2024-25 campaign on Crosby's wing. Even at the age of 37, Crosby is a phenomenal center, and playing alongside him should be a boost for O'Connor, provided he can maintain that role.
Nicholas Robertson, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Robertson reportedly spent the summer trying to get traded out of Toronto, and even after signing a one-year, $875,000 contract with the Maple Leafs, a move still might happen. However, if he does stay in Toronto, there is a great opportunity available for him. The Maple Leafs' left side is wide open, with the closest thing to a sure thing being sophomore Matthew Knies. Robertson could easily end up in a top-six role with a successful preseason. Max Pacioretty is also in the mix after signing a professional tryout contract, but the 35-year-old had an underwhelming season with Washington in 2023-24 (23 points in 47 games) and has a long injury history. As such, Robertson has a fair shot of finishing ahead of the veteran in the depth charts. The 23-year-old Robertson has struggled to cement his spot with Toronto, which is why he requested a trade in the first place, but he showed promise, recording 27 points in 56 contests in 2023-24 despite averaging just 11:23 of ice time. To put that into context, he had the highest points per game last year of any player who averaged under 12 minutes and played at least 20 games, so if he does secure that top-six spot, then he might surprise a good deal of people who have written him off.
Danton Heinen, LW, Vancouver Canucks
Heinen is a touch more accomplished than some of the other players on this list after recording 47 points in 2017-18, but he's recorded under 40 points in every campaign since, and the 29-year-old has never hit the 20-goal milestone. However, like O'Connor and Robertson, Heinen is well positioned to defy expectations thanks to a fantastic opening on his new team's left side. After logging 17 goals and 36 points in 74 contests with Boston last season while averaging 14:28 of ice time, Vancouver signed the British Columbia native to a two-year deal with an eye toward his homecoming involving an assignment alongside J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser. You couldn't pick much better linemates than that, so if he secures that role, he might even top his 2017-18 showing.