It can be tough to know how to sort forwards ahead of a fantasy draft. The best of the best are fairly easy to identify, but there's no shortage of players who come with caveats but still have the potential to put up elite numbers. The purpose of this tier list is to measure these forwards' upside against the risk and give you a better understanding of who to take when on draft day. Keep in mind that this is meant to be a general guide and not a definitive ranking.
Tier 1 – Cream of the Crop
Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl
Back in 2022-23, McDavid stood alone, but last year's Hart Trophy race was one of the best we've seen in ages. Although MacKinnon and Kucherov both had better campaigns than McDavid last year, it's still advisable to select McDavid with the first overall pick because he's the safest choice to record 120-plus points. Draisaitl is a touch of a debatable entry in this group, but after recording at least 40 goals and 105 points in five of the past six campaigns (the lone exception being the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season when he still contributed 31 goals and 84 points in 56 contests), he's about as sure-thing a pick to put up high-end numbers as there is.
Tier 2 – Easy First Rounders
Auston Matthews, Artemi Panarin, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kirill Kaprizov
As the tier name implies, if you take any player on this list in the first round, you're in a good spot. It might look a bit weird for Matthews to be in Tier 2 instead of 1 after scoring 69 goals last year, and reaching the 60-goal mark in two of his past three campaigns, but Matthews' low assist totals coupled with his moderate risk of injury -- he hasn't missed a ton of time, but he's gotten hurt often enough for it to be somewhat concerning -- has left him a touch below the best of the best in terms of projected fantasy value. It's also worth noting that Tkachuk's value declines in leagues that don't value PIM, though even then he should still help plenty after exceeding 85 points in each of his past three campaigns.
Tier 3A – Elite, Steady Picks
Elias Petterson, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, J.T. Miller, Brady Tkachuk, Filip Forsberg, Brayden Point
Each player in this tier is capable of recording 90-plus points in 2024-25, so you can be pleased with any of these selections. Marner is a particularly interesting pick in this group. At the time of writing, he remains unsigned, leaving him set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. Perhaps he'll use that extra motivation to reach the 100-point milestone for the first time in his career.
Tier 3B – Elite Forwards, but…
Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, Connor Bedard, Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Zach Hyman, Sam Reinhart, Jason Robertson, Jack Eichel, Tage Thompson, Aleksander Barkov
Any player on this list could end up getting as many points as those in Tier 3A or even those in Tier 2 but taking them comes with the asterisk of increased risk. Crosby, for example, scored 42 goals and 94 points in 82 contests last year, making it his third straight campaign with over 30 goals and 80 points, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him have another fantastic campaign, but he's also 37 making age is a concern even if it hasn't resulted in a decline thus far. For Bedard, he has the potential to take a huge step forward this year, but as a sophomore on a rebuilding squad, there's an inherent risk. The list also includes Hyman and Reinhart, who might have overperformed last year, and players like Thompson, Robertson, and Stutzle who are coming off down campaigns compared to the extremely elevated standards demanded of the highest tiers. Meanwhile, Eichel, Barkov, and Hughes have significant injury histories and Stamkos will need to adapt to a new team for the first time in his career and is starting to get up there in age at 34.
Tier 4 – Hall of Very Good
Sebastian Aho, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel, Nick Suzuki, Clayton Keller, Jesper Bratt, Mika Zibanejad, Kyle Connor, Nazem Kadri, Carter Verhaeghe, Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, Jordan Kyrou
We're getting to a group of players who are likely to have great seasons but not compete for the top 10 offensively. Guentzel is a good example of that. He's a safe bet to provide fantasy managers with at least 30 goals and over 70 points, but he's not expected to challenge for the Art Ross Trophy, nor has his name ever come up in Hart Trophy conversations. Aho, who has recorded over 35 goals in each of his past three campaigns and has exceeded the 80-point mark twice in that span, is another good example of what this tier is about. He's an outstanding forward, but what he hasn't done yet is put up an elite-level campaign (50 goals or 100 points) or show that he has that kind of potential when the stars align. It is worth noting that Kreider did exceed the 50-goal mark in 2021-22, but he's taken a step back since, and the 33-year-old isn't a good enough bet to reach that kind of high to even be in the conversation among the higher-risk picks in Tier 3B, especially because he's fantasy unremarkable outside of the goals category.
Tier 5 – Solid Scorers
Nico Hischier, Matt Boldy, Mark Scheifele, Seth Jarvis, Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brandon Hagel, Andrei Svechnikov, Mathew Barzal, Roope Hintz, Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat
We're well beyond the players you'd want to select as your first or second forward, but there's still value here. We have players like DeBrincat, Larkin, Trocheck, and Barzal, who under ideal circumstances could contribute above 80 points, but aren't safe bets to do so. For most of these players, 60-75 points is a better range to pencil them in for. Boldy stands out as one of the more interesting forwards in this tier because he's still just 23 and might find another level after recording 63 and 69 points in 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively. Nugent-Hopkins might also exceed expectations because the Oilers having Adam Henrique as their third-line center for a full campaign should allow Edmonton to have Nugent-Hopkins play alongside McDavid at even strength with greater frequency.
Tier 6A – Rising and (Possibly) Fading Stars
Cole Caufield, Wyatt Johnston, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, Brad Marchand, Claude Giroux, Juraj Slafkovsky, Quinton Byfield
These are two divergent groups that are meeting in the middle on their way to very different destinations. Kopitar might be able to reach the 70-point mark yet again, but at the age of 37, that's no sure thing. Meanwhile, 21-year-old teammate Byfield has a chance to reach the 70-point milestone for the first time in his career. Like Crosby, who is in Tier 3B, Malkin and Ovechkin are at a stage of their career where their age is a significant concern, but unlike Crosby, the Russian duo are in a more obvious decline. Malkin finished 2023-24 with 67 points despite playing in the full 82 contests and you'd have to go back to 2017-18 to find his last campaign with at least 30 goals or 90 points. Meanwhile, Ovechkin was a mixed bag last year, providing 31 goals and 65 points, and with him celebrating his 39th birthday on Sept. 17, a bounceback seems doubtful.
Tier 6B – The Gambles
Gustav Nyquist, Brock Boeser, Lucas Raymond, Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Marchessault, Timo Meier, Jeff Skinner, Patrick Kane, Frank Vatrano, Gabriel Landeskog, Andrei Kuzmenko, Taylor Hall, Jonathan Huberdeau
Age might be a factor for these players (most notably in the case of Kane), but for the most part, this is a group of players who have shown promise but still have something to prove, are inconsistent, injury-riddled, or have fallen significantly from highs. There are parallels here to Tier 3B, but the risk from this group is substantially higher -- a bad season from Crosby would be about 70 points while a rough campaign from Huberdeau would be roughly 50 or perhaps even lower in the case of those like Lindholm and Kuzmenko. As a consequence of that high degree of risk, these are picks best saved for the latter stages of standard league drafts. You'll also want to mitigate how many of these types of players you take -- one or two big gambles could seriously help your team if they pay off, but once you start piling them on, your chances of ending up with a lot of problems intensify.
Tier 7 – Rounding out the roster
Bo Horvat, Ryan O'Reilly, Brock Nelson, Travis Konecny, Dylan Strome, Drake Batherson, John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Mats Zuccarello, Alex Tuch, Joel Eriksson Ek, Pavel Buchnevich, William Karlsson, Jamie Benn, Jared McCann, Nick Schmaltz, Nikolaj Ehlers, Pavel Zacha, Martin Necas, Bryan Rust, Alexis Lafreniere, Pierre-Luc Dubois
For the most part, these aren't exciting forwards. They don't have the upside of those in Tier 6B, but they are reliable, good forwards to fill holes with. Some of them are a little more interesting than others, though. Lafreniere was the 2020 first-overall pick, and while he's taken longer to get going than your traditional No. 1, he set career highs last season in goals (28) and points (57), so there's arguably more upside with him than others in this grouping. Dubois is another fun one. After a rough campaign with the Kings (16 goals, 40 points in 82 games), he'll get a fresh start in Washington and perhaps a bigger role compared to LA where he averaged 15:42 of ice time.
Bonus Tier – The Rookies
Logan Stankoven, Matvei Michkov, Macklin Celebrini, Cutter Gauthier, Will Smith, Mavrik Bourque
This year's rookie class doesn't have anyone expected to enter the league and dominate like Bedard, but there are still some good options here. Michkov, Celebrini, and Gauthier stand out as early Calder Trophy favorites. Stankoven certainly has the potential to be in the conversation too, but you might want to be a touch wearier of him because Dallas' offensive depth might result in him playing primarily on the third line and second power-play unit.
