While an NHL sleeper is usually considered someone who might slip through the cracks in Fantasy drafts for one reason or another, a breakout is someone who has already proven a little something in their career but is ready to enter primetime in 2008-09.
Here are 10 guys I think might launch themselves into orbit this upcoming season:
Erik Christensen, C, Atlanta Thrashers
Christensen has just 35 goals and 35 assists in 153 career games over three NHL seasons, but the Thrashers have seen enough potential in him to give the Edmonton native a shot at the top-line center role to start the season. A preseason shoulder injury is a little concerning, but the MRI was clear and he should be OK to start the season. If he can jell nicely with Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Williams, then Christensen could be in for a 60-point campaign.
Johan Franzen, LW, Detroit Red Wings
Franzen was a third-round pick in 2004 and never scored too much in his home country of Sweden, but he is surrounded by so much talent in Detroit this season that you have to think he can at least improve his 38-point total from last season by 10-15 points or so. He was a stud during the playoffs as Detroit picked up another Stanley Cup last season, so the expectations are high for Franzen, but I think he can live up to them in his fourth NHL campaign.
Jack Johnson, D, Los Angeles Kings
Johnson was the third overall pick in the 2005 draft who spent two years at Michigan (71 points in 74 games) before joining the Kings full time last season. He struggled offensively in his rookie year, but the potential is there and he should be able to relax a little now he's into his second season. Hopefully his surrounding cast will help him a out a little more in 2008-09, but the Kings aren't expected to contend.
Phil Kessel, C/W, Boston Bruins
Kessel is only 21 years old, but 2008-09 will be his third full NHL season. The fact he's made it to the big leagues at such a young age shows what talent he has, but the former Minnesota Golden Gopher has yet to put up over 40 points and was benched in last year's playoffs. If he can find a regular spot on one of Boston's top two lines, Kessel is definitely capable of breaking through the 50-point barrier at minimum.
Peter Mueller, RW, Phoenix Coyotes
Mueller will need to put together a superb season if he's going to be considered a breakout after his super rookie campaign (54 points), but I think he has a good shot at doing so. He will get to play alongside Olli Jokinen this season and is one of the many young talents in what should be an exciting Coyotes squad.
Matt Niskanen, D, Dallas Stars
Niskanen had a solid rookie season with 26 points and a plus-22 rating, as he took advantage of the extra ice time provided to him by the sports hernia injury suffered by veteran Sergei Zubov. Niskanen will likely be on the second blue-line pairing to start the season, but he will get his chances, especially with the aging Zubov and Phillippe Boucher ahead of him.
David Perron, LW, St. Louis Blues
Perron wasn't expected to contribute much in 2007 as a rookie, but he ended up with 27 points and a solid plus-16 rating, despite only managing just over 12 minutes a game. He should get a lot more time on the ice this season, and already has a hat trick in exhibition play. I wouldn't be surprised if he easily reaches the 45-point mark in 2008-09.
Mike Smith, G, Tampa Bay Lightning
Smith has a lot to prove in 2008-09, as he didn't exactly impress in his 13 games with Tampa Bay last season after coming over in a trade from Dallas. The Lightning liked him enough to sign him to a two-year extension in July, though, and with new defenseman Andrej Meszaros and Matt Carle in front of him and bunch of changes up front, things can't be much worse than last year. Smith will also know he'll need to play well to keep Olaf Kolzig from stealing his minutes. If the pressure doesn't get to him, Smith could turn out to be a nice low-end No. 1 Fantasy option in the end.
R.J. Umberger, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Whether he was motivated by his impending free agency or if he's just finally coming into his own, Umberger put a career-best 50 points in 74 games last season with the Flyers and really improved in the assist department, where he more than doubled his previous best campaign by dishing out 37 helpers. He will pair up with Rick Nash and Kristian Huselius on the top line in Columbus and should have a shot at putting together a 60-point season if all things fall into place.
Nikolai Zherdev, RW, New York Rangers
Zherdev has yet to play like a third overall pick, but when you're stuck in Columbus, things like that can happen. Now that he's in the Big Apple, Zherdev will likely pair up with Scott Gomez and Markus Naslund on the top line with the Rangers and will be expected to produce. If he can stand the attention in New York, this could be the year we finally see what Zherdev is capable of.
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