A wise man once coined the adage "good things come to those who wait." In essence -- patience is a virtue. Predators right winger Martin Erat is all too familiar with this proverb.
The Czech native leads Nashville with six goals. Not too shabby for a former seventh-round draft pick.
The highlight of Erat's early-season success came Saturday when he beat Panthers goalie Craig Anderson with a shootout winner. Erat also sent the game into overtime with the tying goal in the third period.
"Martin Erat is a perfect example of this organization's philosophy," general manager Scott Poile said on May 12, when Erat signed on the dotted line for $31.5 million. "He came to us as a seventh-round draft pick, and grew steadily into an elite player when given an opportunity to succeed. He has continued to take on more responsibility and is an integral part of our team moving forward. We look forward to his leadership and production for the next seven years."
The success rate of late-round picks in the NHL is no different from any other sport -- the odds aren't stacked in their favor. Still, despite seeing 190 players go off the board before he did in 1999, Erat has found his niche in the NHL.
Nashville thought so highly of the 27-year-old forward, they locked him up with a seven-year contract in the offseason. Money well spent thanks to Erat's fast start and past history.
Erat came into the 2008-09 season third on the Predators all-time scoring list with 253 points. He was also third in assists with 168 and had averaged 53 points in the previous four seasons. He is currently on pace for a career-high 40 goals and 67 points.
But what changed for Erat? How did he go from an average scorer to leading the charge for Nashville? Well, for one, the need for an elite scorer on the right side of the ice with the unexpected departure of Alexander Radulov.
"I'm just trying to do the same things all of the time," Erat said. "Right now, everything is working. But it's a long season. There are going to be bumps in the road."
The Predators are hoping there will be very few minor detours along the way as they are in need of a reliable third scoring option behind Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont.
"Marty has a little more ownership," head coach Barry Trotz said. "He has emerged into a leader. That was mandated by us for Marty this year. Anytime he has the chance to shoot in those prime scoring areas we want him to shoot. Sometimes he will double clutch and try to make a play, but he is best when he is shooting the puck and keeping it simple."
Add 'Em
Derick Brassard, C, Columbus
Owned: 38 percent of leagues
Analysis:
It hasn't taken Brassard long to adapt to the NHL. He had 11 points
(four goals) in his first 11 games and failed to tally in just two of
those contests. In fact, he scored in his first two games of the season.
Columbus isn't exactly shocked by his production, which is a reason why
he was drafted sixth overall in 2006, but his point-per-game average was
expected to come in time -- not immediately. Well, Brassard is now one
of the early-frontrunners for the Calder Trophy (top rookie) and should
be on your Fantasy team. He is logging consistent top-six minutes and is
also seeing time on the power play. He dominated in junior hockey and
then last season in the AHL (51 points in 42 games). Brassard appears to
be the real deal.
Andrej Sekera, D, Buffalo
Owned: 28 percent of leagues
Analysis:
The 22-year-old Slovak is second among Sabres' defensemen in points with
eight -- all assists. He has at least one assist in five of his last six
games and six total. Coach Lindy Ruff has paired him with veteran Jaroslav Spacek, who leads the defensemen with nine points. The duo
seems to be clicking and that could only mean good things for Sekera,
who is in his second season. Sekera has had a slow learning curve since
turning pro in 2006-07, but he showed in his final season of junior
hockey that he can be a viable offensive contributor -- 22 goals and 55
points in 51 games for the Owen Sound Attack (2005-06).
Drop' Em
Lee Stempniak, RW, St. Louis
Owned: 21 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Stempniak probably wishes the preseason never ended. Flanking the
wing of a line with Andy McDonald and Brad Boyes, Stempniak rolled up five goals and seven assists in five
games. He added a plus-9 rating for good measure. Then came the regular
season. Stempniak opened with an assist against Nashville, but injured
his knee, missed a few games and doesn't have a point in his last five
games since returning. He is still on a line with McDonald and Boyes,
but Stempniak looks lost. In fact, Stempniak's production has dropped
ever since he had a career-high 27 goals in 2006-07.
Chris Phillps, D, Ottawa
Owned: 20 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Phillips averaged 18.2 points per season over the first 10 years of
his career, but much more was expected from him heading into 2008-09
with a major overhaul on defense that included the subtractions of Andrej Meszaros and Wade Redden. So far
the results have been awful for Phillips under first-year head coach
Craig Hartsburg. He has zero goals, one assist and a minus-5 rating in
12 games. Most of the offense along the blue line has gone to Filip Kuba. Phillips is still logging serious playing time, but it
appears his offensive game is still average. He is best left for leagues
that reward heavily for plus/minus ratings and short-handed stats.
Avoid' Em
Niclas Wallin, D, Carolina
Owned: 25 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Wallin has played 418 games with the Hurricanes, putting him seventh
on the team's all-time list since Carolina relocated to Raleigh.
However, it hasn't been until 2008-09 he has shown to be a Fantasy
viable player. Wallin has a goal, six assists and a plus-10 rating in 12
games. His previous career-high for a season was 10 points, which he has
done three times. What gives? Well, Wallin is being paired with new
acquisition Joe Corvo, who is a very
offensive-savvy player. It has really helped take Wallin's game to the
next level. While Wallin is likely going to have a career season, his
production will level out. He has never been a top-offensive gem dating
back to his junior hockey days and it's just hard to expect him to keep
producing at such a high level.
Jason Chimera, LW, Columbus
Owned: 21 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Chimera is another player who seems to be way out of his element. He
has four goals, five assists and a plus-2 rating in his first 12 games.
He is on pace for 27 goals, 33 assists and a plus-13 rating. This for a
guy that never had more than 17 goals and 36 points in his first seven
seasons. He also finished even or better just twice in that span.
Chimera is logging top-six minutes, but 40-50 points is really all
owners should expect.
Watch 'Em
Ryane Clowe, LW, San Jose
Owned: 44 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Clowe has exploded in his last eight games for six goals and three
assists after failing to score in his first six games and just one point
in his first five. He had taken just six shots in his first five games
and has taken 35 shots during his points tear. It seems first-year head
coach Todd McLellan has given Clowe the green light to fire at will.
Clowe also has four of his goals on the man advantage. McLellan is a
power-play whiz and that could mean good things for Clowe if he remains
consistent. We almost want to put him in the add column, but since he
has been just an average NHL player to date, we want to see a few more
respectable streaks from Clowe before telling you to add him across the
board.
Aaron Johnson, D, Chicago
Owned: 3 percent of leagues
Analysis:
Johnson was recalled in mid-October to be a band-aid option until Niklas Hjalmarsson returned from a rib injury. Johnson has developed
into much more. Hjalmarsson has been sent down to the AHL, and Johnson
is now in a defensive pairing with Duncan Keith.
Johnson had two assists and two goals in his first six games, and new
head coach Joel Quenneville has taken a liking to the five-year veteran,
who has five points and a plus-8 rating in 10 games. Johnson has had
success in the past on the junior level and in the minors. However, he
has never really been able to stick around. We are not sure his
early-season success can last, but just keep him on the radar for now.
Kyle Wellwood, C, Vancouver
Owned: 16 percent of leagues
Analysis:
All it took was a demotion to the AHL to get Wellwood fired up. One
of the Canucks' key offseason acquisitions, Wellwood came to camp out of
shape and was demoted to the minors after a poor showing in the first
game. He was recalled after Pavol Demitra
(ribs) went on IR and hasn't slowed down since. Wellwood has scored in
five of seven games and has total six goals. Four of them have come on
the power play. Usually we would tell you to add Wellwood, but we want
to see how he produces long term when Demitra is back in action.
Wellwood's career was expected to take off in Toronto after a solid
rookie season in 2005-06, but then injury woes settled in and derailed
his career. He has the potential to succeed in the NHL, but we just need
to see a steady pattern when all the pieces are in place.
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