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The Elite Eight will see a 1 vs. 2 matchup on Friday night as the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils face the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide with a spot in the Final Four on the line. Duke (34-3) has won 14 straight games and is coming off a 100-93 victory over No. 4 Arizona in the Sweet 16. In that same round, Alabama (28-8) rolled over No. 6 BYU, 113-88, in which the Tide made a March Madness record of 25 3-point attempts. This will be the 10th all-time meeting between the programs, with Duke dominating the series with an 8-1 record.

Tipoff is at 8:49 p.m. ET from the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. The Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Alabama vs. Duke odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 174.5. Before making any Duke vs. Alabama picks, check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall.

Marshall enters this matchup on a 97-68-1 roll (+2151) run on his college basketball picks. Anybody who's followed his picks could be way up.

Now, he has set his sights on Duke vs. Alabama and just locked his March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Alabama vs. Duke:

  • Alabama vs. Duke spread: Duke -6.5
  • Alabama vs. Duke over/under: 174.5 points  
  • Alabama vs. Duke money line: Duke -351, Alabama +278
  • BAMA: The Tide are 21-15 against the spread this season
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils are 24-13 against the spread in 2024-25
  • Alabama vs. Duke picks: See who to back at SportsLine

Why Alabama can cover

The Tide are coming off a performance as impressive by any team in 2025 March Madness as they defeated BYU by 25 points in a Sweet 16 matchup in which Bama knocked down 25 3-pointers. That shattered the previous NCAA Tournament record of made 3-pointers (21) set in 1990 by Loyola Marymount. It was Alabama's highest-scoring game of the season, and its 10th time reaching triple-digits, as Nate Oats' squad leads the nation with 91.4 points per game.

The Crimson Tide don't just play on one end of the court, however, as they also lead Division I in both total rebounds and defensive rebounds per game. That prevents second-chance opportunities for opponents, and Duke already struggles as is in grabbing offensive boards as it's just 167th in the country in offensive rebounds per game. Additionally, one of the three defeats for the Blue Devils this season came to an SEC squad in Kentucky, and those Wildcats were dominated by the Tide in 2024-25 as Alabama went 3-0 versus UK, with a 15.7-point average margin of victory. See which team to pick here.

Why Duke can cover 

While Alabama has the top-ranked scoring offense, it is Duke which has the No. 1 offensive efficiency in college basketball. It is an elite-shooting squad, ranking in the top 15, nationally, in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage. Even with the high-octane unit for Duke on the offensive end, it still takes care of the ball and ranks in the top 10 in fewest turnovers per game. While one could argue that the two offenses in this game will cancel each other out, Duke's defense is far superior, ranking No. 7 in points allowed per game (62.5), while Bama ranks 356th (out of 364 teams) with 81.2 points allowed per game.

With Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach patrolling the paint, the Blue Devils hold opponents to 43.2% on 2-point attempts, the fourth-lowest mark in D1. That defense extends to the perimeter as Duke is holding opponents to under 29% from beyond the arc over its last five games. March Madness games are often decided on the defensive end of the court, as well as at the free throw line in high-pressure situations. The Blue Devils also have a big advantage in the latter, ranking 14th in free throw percentage, while Bama is just 192nd in percentage from the line. See which team to pick here.

How to make Alabama vs. Duke picks

Marshall has evaluated the Duke vs. Alabama matchup and it leaning Over on the total. He's also found a critical X-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can see who it is at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. Duke, and what critical X-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Duke vs. Alabama spread to jump on, all from the expert who is on a 97-68-1 roll over his last 166 college basketball picks, and find out.