The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3, and Burnham Square ended the Road to the Kentucky Derby sitting atop the standings with 130 qualifying points. The Ian Wilkes-trained son of Liam's Map out of Scat Daddy mare Linda won the Holy Bull Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes to earn the top spot. He's 15-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds and looks like Wilkes' best shot at winning the first leg of the Triple Crown as a head trainer after winning as an assistant under Carl Natzger with Street Sense in 2007. Meanwhile, Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he's one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn't even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez could be one of the popular 2025 Kentucky Derby picks as a Bob Baffert horse. Baffert is tied for the most wins in Kentucky Derby history (six), but two of his three Derby victories over the past 20 years were favorites. Rodriguez, who is currently priced at 10-1 odds, is unlikely to move to favorite status for the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Rodriguez is the son of a Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, who won the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Any Kentucky Derby win is impressive, but Authentic's came in a smaller 15-horse field as the final leg to the Triple Crown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Rodriguez has failed to win three of his five career races and has never started at Churchill Downs. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The rise of Japanese horse racing has been a theme of late at the Kentucky Derby, with Forever Young putting in an impressive effort to finish third and become the first Japanese horse to hit the board in the first leg of the Triple Crown. Now, trainer Noriyuki Hori will hope he can take Japan to the winner's circle with Luxor Cafe and this horse certainly has the pedigree to do it.
Sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of More Than Ready mare Mary's Follies, Luxor Cafe has four wins in six career starts in Japan and most recently won by five lengths in the Fukuryu Stakes to punch his ticket. American Pharoah is the only horse in history to win the American grand slam, adding a Breeders' Cup Classic win after his Triple Crown triumph. Meanwhile, damsire More Than Ready is a two-time graded stakes winner that finished fourth in the 2000 Kentucky Derby and dam Mary's Follies is also a two-time graded stakes winner. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who "has a legit shot." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sandman | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sovereignty | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Rodriguez | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tappan Street | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Burnham Square | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Owen Almighty | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Publisher | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Admire Daytona | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flood Zone | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flying Mohawk | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |